By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Politics Discussion - The Syrian Civil War Update Thread

For those who're interested, here's an acurate depiction of that incident with Israel launches (convinently in English):
http://russianforces.org/blog/2013/09/russian_early_warning_system_i.shtml
by  Pavel Podvig

This is what radar station actually tracked down:

This is trajectory prolongation seen from another angle:

Interesting that Podvig noticed that "throwed bone to media" as well :D

Contrary to what quite a few people assumed, everything suggests that the military were very much in control of the situation and Russian officials knew precisely what had occurred. Indeed, it is clear that someone in Moscow even had the time to stage all the theatrics like the minister of defense's report to the president, the press release, and all that. Later in the day, Anatoly Antonov, the deputy minister of defense, said that the launch triggered the state of higher readiness at the command centers of the General Staff and the Air and Space Defense Forces. I wouldn't rule out that this statement was part of the same theater - it's hard to say now.



Around the Network

^In regards to this I have (admittedly conspirological as I cannot proof it) hypothesis that these launches could be a test of Syrian tracking radar stations sites and air-defence in general to get some intel by the US (not sure what Israel role here, probably it was just a test run intially before US officials had that proposition to test Syrian radars at the same time). So by making big fuss out of it Russia basically say -- no dice, Syrian radars are working in passive mode while we're doing all the job as early warning system and first echelon of defence.

Or banana is merely a banana. If not for that media splash that has to have some reason, I wouldn't even wasted time overthinking this.



Russia urges Syria hand over chemical weapons to intl control to avoid strike
http://rt.com/news/lavrov-syria-chemical-weapons-handover-615/

Cool, I have a feeling that Americans are gonna grab that chance. Kerry kinda proposed this after all.



It's an interesting compromise on Russia's part, namely because it would set a bad precedent (for Russia's long-term geopolitical view) allowing us to essentially shake down countries for their WMDs



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Mr Khan said:
It's an interesting compromise on Russia's part, namely because it would set a bad precedent (for Russia's long-term geopolitical view) allowing us to essentially shake down countries for their WMDs

It seems you just make up arguments here. CWs might be WMDs but they do not play any significant deterrent role nuclear weapons do (and those only with adequate means of transportation), they are non-essential for Syria outside of threatening Israel civilians, maybe, which is counterproductive rather than useful -- see my posts about minimal CW efficiency against regular army.



Around the Network
mai said:
Mr Khan said:
It's an interesting compromise on Russia's part, namely because it would set a bad precedent (for Russia's long-term geopolitical view) allowing us to essentially shake down countries for their WMDs

It seems you just make up arguments here. CWs might be WMDs but they do not play any significant deterrent role nuclear weapons do (and those only with adequate means of transportation), they are non-essential for Syria outside of threatening Israel civilians, maybe, which is counterproductive rather than useful -- see my posts about minimal CW efficiency against regular army.

The concern from Russia's perspective would be that it validates the Western position that non-western allies are not allowed to use WMDs under any circumstances, and that merely doing so entitles the Western powers to demand that the country surrender their stockpile or risk being destroyed, especially since Syria was breaking no international law, due to being a non-signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention.

I guess Russia feels that the danger of outright American intervention outweighs the bad precedent towards Western interference that this sets otherwise.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Mr Khan said:

The concern from Russia's perspective would be that it validates the Western position that non-western allies are not allowed to use WMDs under any circumstances, and that merely doing so entitles the Western powers to demand that the country surrender their stockpile or risk being destroyed, especially since Syria was breaking no international law, due to being a non-signatory to the Chemical Weapons Convention.

I guess Russia feels that the danger of outright American intervention outweighs the bad precedent towards Western interference that this sets otherwise.

Given what my position on the matter of possible strikes is -- there won't be any strikes for 1001 reasons, all this fuss is more of a smoke and mirrors than anything else -- international control over Syrian CW is just a good way to save face and exit that warmongerish circle finally. Otherwise you may as well suggest that CW were the real concern in the first place, which is not true by any means.

BTW Who do you think is going to be that international control if it ever happens? US? No. Israel? No. Yeah, win-win situation for States.





^So this is it? Warmongers have calmed down for now? No "limited military action" this season, I guess. Meet you in the next season of this never-ending TV show.



A Plea for Caution From Russia
What Putin Has to Say to Americans About Syria

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/opinion/putin-plea-for-caution-from-russia-on-syria.html

Recent events surrounding Syria have prompted me to speak directly to the American people and their political leaders. It is important to do so at a time of insufficient communication between our societies.

Relations between us have passed through different stages. We stood against each other during the cold war. But we were also allies once, and defeated the Nazis together. The universal international organization — the United Nations — was then established to prevent such devastation from ever happening again.

The United Nations’ founders understood that decisions affecting war and peace should happen only by consensus, and with America’s consent the veto by Security Council permanent members was enshrined in the United Nations Charter. The profound wisdom of this has underpinned the stability of international relations for decades.

No one wants the United Nations to suffer the fate of the League of Nations, which collapsed because it lacked real leverage. This is possible if influential countries bypass the United Nations and take military action without Security Council authorization.

The potential strike by the United States against Syria, despite strong opposition from many countries and major political and religious leaders, including the pope, will result in more innocent victims and escalation, potentially spreading the conflict far beyond Syria’s borders. A strike would increase violence and unleash a new wave of terrorism. It could undermine multilateral efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and further destabilize the Middle East and North Africa. It could throw the entire system of international law and order out of balance.

Syria is not witnessing a battle for democracy, but an armed conflict between government and opposition in a multireligious country. There are few champions of democracy in Syria. But there are more than enough Qaeda fighters and extremists of all stripes battling the government. The United States State Department has designated Al Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, fighting with the opposition, as terrorist organizations. This internal conflict, fueled by foreign weapons supplied to the opposition, is one of the bloodiest in the world.

Mercenaries from Arab countries fighting there, and hundreds of militants from Western countries and even Russia, are an issue of our deep concern. Might they not return to our countries with experience acquired in Syria? After all, after fighting in Libya, extremists moved on to Mali. This threatens us all.

From the outset, Russia has advocated peaceful dialogue enabling Syrians to develop a compromise plan for their own future. We are not protecting the Syrian government, but international law. We need to use the United Nations Security Council and believe that preserving law and order in today’s complex and turbulent world is one of the few ways to keep international relations from sliding into chaos. The law is still the law, and we must follow it whether we like it or not. Under current international law, force is permitted only in self-defense or by the decision of the Security Council. Anything else is unacceptable under the United Nations Charter and would constitute an act of aggression.

No one doubts that poison gas was used in Syria. But there is every reason to believe it was used not by the Syrian Army, but by opposition forces, to provoke intervention by their powerful foreign patrons, who would be siding with the fundamentalists. Reports that militants are preparing another attack — this time against Israel — cannot be ignored.

It is alarming that military intervention in internal conflicts in foreign countries has become commonplace for the United States. Is it in America’s long-term interest? I doubt it. Millions around the world increasingly see America not as a model of democracy but as relying solely on brute force, cobbling coalitions together under the slogan “you’re either with us or against us.”

But force has proved ineffective and pointless. Afghanistan is reeling, and no one can say what will happen after international forces withdraw. Libya is divided into tribes and clans. In Iraq the civil war continues, with dozens killed each day. In the United States, many draw an analogy between Iraq and Syria, and ask why their government would want to repeat recent mistakes.

No matter how targeted the strikes or how sophisticated the weapons, civilian casualties are inevitable, including the elderly and children, whom the strikes are meant to protect.

The world reacts by asking: if you cannot count on international law, then you must find other ways to ensure your security. Thus a growing number of countries seek to acquire weapons of mass destruction. This is logical: if you have the bomb, no one will touch you. We are left with talk of the need to strengthen nonproliferation, when in reality this is being eroded.

We must stop using the language of force and return to the path of civilized diplomatic and political settlement.

A new opportunity to avoid military action has emerged in the past few days. The United States, Russia and all members of the international community must take advantage of the Syrian government’s willingness to place its chemical arsenal under international control for subsequent destruction. Judging by the statements of President Obama, the United States sees this as an alternative to military action.

I welcome the president’s interest in continuing the dialogue with Russia on Syria. We must work together to keep this hope alive, as we agreed to at the Group of 8 meeting in Lough Erne in Northern Ireland in June, and steer the discussion back toward negotiations.

If we can avoid force against Syria, this will improve the atmosphere in international affairs and strengthen mutual trust. It will be our shared success and open the door to cooperation on other critical issues.

My working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I appreciate this. I carefully studied his address to the nation on Tuesday. And I would rather disagree with a case he made on American exceptionalism, stating that the United States’ policy is “what makes America different. It’s what makes us exceptional.” It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.

Vladimir V. Putin is the president of Russia.

http://kremlin.ru/news/19205