Vita.

So far there are more exclusives and more what looks to be high quality titles. Add the price cut in Japan and the possible price cut in other regions, it should continue selling well. The past few weeks the Wii U has dropped down to Vita numbers anyways.

If Mario Kart and Super Smash Bros release at the end of this year, it'll push sales for sure, but not as much as an all year long price drop is going to..

Wii U will get a price cut too so that's a wash IMO.

What lineup does the Vita have? Honestly I'm not seeing it. Another AC spin off for the US and maybe FFX HD this year (which is also going to be on PS3)?

Not good enough.

Nintendo likely has Wii Sports U, Mario Kart U, Yoshi's Land, Dragon Quest X, Zelda: Wind Waker Reborn, The Wonderful 101, Wii Fit U, and Pikmin 3 for the rest of the year at least. Maybe 3D Mario too.

Mario Kart alone probably has more sales draw than every Vita game for the whole year combined. 

Vita hasn't proven anything other than its the slowest selling major product launch any one of Sony/Nintendo/MS since Virtual Boy, trending even slower than the Sega Dreamcast. 

I wouldn't be so confident in a WiiU pricecut.   Everyone thought Vita would get one last year and it's still only happened in one region.

Well said, except that I disagree that WiiU will be a colossal disappointment.  It could be, but Nintendo seems to be initiating the "3DS effect" in which case I think WiiU's sales are going to be a pleasant surprise this year.

The dropping yen makes it pretty much a lock. A $350 Wii U today for Nintendo is actually more like $415 in their pocket because of yen/dollar flucations since November being favorable to Nintendo. It will happen, they just will probably wait until the summer/fall to not piss off early adopters too much. 

Assuming Mario Kart U comes out this year, Wii U.

Maybe not, but in Japan at least there are a lot of titles that appeal. Shinovi shouldn't have been the seller it was based on the previous 3DS releases.

I hope E3 will reveal a solid lineup. The most important part now though will be a price drop in the West and a sorting out of Memory Card prices. General consensus seems to be that people are interested in Vita, but will not pay the current price for one.

You would be suprised on how much 2 mario games could help the console. Mario kart U and the next 3d mario are comming to the wii u this year, right? I think thats what Iwata said in the nintendo direcct

I think Sony already blew their load in Japan the last two weeks though, that was it, Soul Sacrifice + Tales + PSO + price cut + new colors. I don't see anything on the horizon that's comparable to that. 

The West is basically done with handhelds, I think that's the bigger issue, though Sony's not doing themselves many favors by having a pretty crap release schedule. 

Even the 3DS is struggling in the West, Sony really doesn't have much hope, gaming handhelds as a concept are becoming a niche use device in the West just for kids and a tiny (but vocal) set of "hardcore players" that probably buy every game system. 

wait for Pokemon.  That'll do the West a lot of good, including getting me on board