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Forums - Sales Discussion - ALL marioboys bought SMG and Wii? Or speculations made on SMG and SMS sales

CrazzyMan said:

@Oyvoyvoyv,

You are telling me SMG has worse legs than SM64 and SMS in Japan? It is catching up to SM64!
NOT really.
Brawl isn't doing surpreme in Japan? Look at it compete to it's precessors: IN ONE WEEK it did what its pressessors did in 16!
http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Japan&game1=Super+Smash+Bros+-+N64®2=Japan&game2=Super+Smash+Bros+Melee+-+GC®3=Japan&game3=&weeks=50 Cherry picking.

 


 I don't know what was cherry picking, and all you showed was an extended graph, which showed Melee sold like 1.1 million lifetime, and the original sold 1.5 million lifetime. And comparing first week sales of SSBB to their first week sales, roughly 218k for SSB and 360k for Melee, and then taking how much they sold lifetime, and using those numbers as a base for SSBB sales over the next year (roughly 25% of Brawls first year sales in Japan will be first week), I'll say Brawl should sell roughly 4 million this year alone. In Japan. Alone. With a 15% of total sales of SSBB selling in Japan this year, that means it should sell roughly 26 million copys this year. That seems a bit high, so I'll lower it to roughly 25% of Brawls first year sales will be from Japan, meaning it will sell 16 million. Either way, it'll sell more than the top PS2 selling game, with a lower userbase. GTA-San Andreas is the PS2s top selling game, and when the PS2 was released, the PS2 had a userbase close to 70 million. Hell, I think Brawl will do pretty well, and if you don't think beating the best selling PS2 game in one year is good, then... Well the PS3 will fail because none of it's games will match up to Brawl this year at least.

Also, Zeldas been in the top 50 for 60 weeks now. Yes, it's not in the top 20, but I don't think many PS3 games even get to the top 20, much less stay there for any period of time.

And I don't see how comparing 2 FF games is like comparing "bananas and potatoes." Same genre, same name, etc. If you think comparing those two games is not a good comparison, then you can't use past FF games to say that FFXIII will sell well, because that's like comparing apples and oranges.



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CrazzyMan said:
@Oyvoyvoyv,
IX sold less is not potatoes and bananas, it's just that you have no real excuse.
Somehow your graphs doesn`t work.
On New Playstation console, New FF/GT game sales more, then last FF/GT game on previous console.
That`s how that always was.
only 5 Ps3 games beat it.
there will be MORE, after FFXIII, MGS4, GT5 and etc.

MAke me a favour, and try to understand what people are trying to tell you, of course if ur closed mind doesnt allow you, well there's no way you will understand.

 

BUT what he was trying to say is that only 5 recently released games are capable of selling better than a game that is more than 1 year old, which is still in the charts.

 And so that you know, no PS3 game has sold better than Zelda TP so far, doesn't even come close to it.

THINK A BIT PLEASE



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

I love this thread. I hope this keeps going until SMG sells 8 million units!



I don't know what was cherry picking,
Brawl isn't doing surpreme in Japan? Look at it compete to it's precessors: IN ONE WEEK it did what its pressessors did in 16!
AND OVERALL sold LESS.
http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Japan&game1=Super+Smash+Bros+-+N64®2=All&game2=Super+Smash+Bros+Melee+-+GC®3=All&game3=&weeks=250

I'll say Brawl should sell roughly 4 million this year alone. In Japan. Alone.
i say it will reach 2 mln.

Also, Zeldas been in the top 50 for 60 weeks now. Yes, it's not in the top 20, but I don't think many PS3 games even get to the top 20, much less stay there for any period of time.
IT`s BECAUSE NON BIG BRAND PS3 games have been released YET. @trestres, use brains atleast.
+ Zelda sales only recently matched GC zelda sales TOTAL sales and HAVEN`T matched in Japan(probably not all Zelda fans bought new Zelda in Japan).
http://www.vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Japan&game1=The+Legend+of+Zelda%3A+Wind+Waker+-+GC®2=Japan&game2=The+Legend+of+Zelda%3A+Twilight+Princess+-+Wii®3=All&game3=&weeks=120
And I don't see how comparing 2 FF games is like comparing "bananas and potatoes." Same genre, same name, etc. If you think comparing those two games is not a good comparison, then you can't use past FF games to say that FFXIII will sell well, because that's like comparing apples and oranges.
i quoted wrong post, FFXI - MMO, and other are single player games.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

Zelda TP sold more than Zelda WW as it was released for GC too, there are you ZeldaFans, plus a lot of new gamers who bought it for wii.



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

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@trestres, not a lot, mostly thnx to new Europe users.
As i said before, 80-85% bought BY mariofans, rest by new users.



Every 5 seconds on earth one child dies from hunger...

2009.04.30 - PS3 will OUTSELL x360 atleast by the middle of 2010. Japan+Europe > NA.


Gran Turismo 3 - 1,06 mln. in 3 weeks with around 4 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Gran Turismo 4 - 1,16 mln. with 18 mln. PS2 on the launch.

Final Fantasy X - around 2 mln. with 5 mln. PS2 on the launch.
Final Fantasy X-2 - 2.4 mln. with 12 mln. PS2 on the launch.

 

1.8 mln. PS3 today(2008.01.17) in Japan. Now(2009.04.30) 3.16 mln. PS3 were sold in Japan.
PS3 will reach 4 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 25k.

PS3 may reach 5 mln. in Japan by the end of 2009 with average weekly sales 50k.
PS2 2001 vs PS3 2008 sales numbers =) + New games released in Japan by 2009 that passed 100k so far

CrazzyMan said:
I don't know what was cherry picking,
Brawl isn't doing surpreme in Japan? Look at it compete to it's precessors: IN ONE WEEK it did what its pressessors did in 16!
AND OVERALL sold LESS.
http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=Japan&game1=Super+Smash+Bros+-+N64®2=All&game2=Super+Smash+Bros+Melee+-+GC®3=All&game3=&weeks=250

You do realize that Brawl has been out a whole 1 week right? Of course it's gonna sell less overall when you compare a games ONE WHOLE WEEK out to two games that have been out for 250 weeks in those graphs you showed.  That's the worst  attempt at a counter arguement I have ever seen. And I have seen people use "NA UH" as a counter arguement. You sir, fail.

And for the whole "PS3 does not have any brand name games" thing, I would argue that the PS3 does have some big games. But they haven't sold well. If I could do a post history search, I would find all those PS3 people who were saying "Once Lair, and Heavenly Sword come out, then we'll start seeing some game sales." And that didn't happen. Also, I would say that the Wii has a good amount of non-brandname games in the top 50, so the PS3 should as well.

And since you meant FFXI was not comparable to the other FFs, you agree that his arguement and points make perfect sense? 



Oyvoyvoyv said:
Final Fan, you have a very good point, but you are wrong. In Japan SM64 sold 1.9M in USA 6.9 and in Europe 3.1M. This means 15.9 %, or 16 % of the sales are in Japan.

SMG has sold 0.9 in Japan, 3 in USA and 1.67 in Europe. This means 16.1 % of Galaxy's sales are in Japan. So Japan vs Japan is fair. Unless I misunderstood you that is.

The problem with this however, is that Japan has become a very 1 day sales for consoles, and SMG won't go a lot higher there (1.2M max) while Europe is a VERY "leggy" country, so that means the % of Japan should go down to 12ish percent, so that you have to add to Japan.

I'll do the math, and hope I'm right.

First we find 1 % of the total sales. After 13 weeks in Japan, SMG had sold 887K. 887/12=7391K. That is the total sales. (I know, it doesn't fit, but because the mentioned above it might be later)

SM64 had 1080K/16=6750. If I am right, that means SMG is tracking above SM64 overall, just that we do not have the numbers. Even if I am wrong, and 14 % will be the total sales, SMG is tracking alike with SM64.
This is almost exactly what I have been saying.  What did I say to make you think this post refuted any of my points? 

Japan vs. Japan is obviously fair, but I was trying to USE Japan to extrapolate what WW trends we can expect. CrazzyMan is saying "no, no, you can't use total sales for NA/EUR because we don't have weekly data", which does make things more difficult but by no means unmanageable, as I (and now you) have shown. 

The path SMG will take is pretty obvious in the basic outline but we need to have all our ducks in a row for any attempt to penetrate CrazzyMan's hedgemaze of cherry-picking, obfuscation, and when all else fails outright avoidance and denial. 

Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

so 1,5 million more than the previous Zelda is "a little", cool then, whatever you say.



Proud poster of the 10000th reply at the Official Smash Bros Update Thread.

tag - "I wouldn't trust gamespot, even if it was a live comparison."

Bets with Conegamer:

Pandora's Tower will have an opening week of less than 37k in Japan. (Won!)
Pandora's Tower will sell less than 100k lifetime in Japan.
Stakes: 1 week of avatar control for each one.

Fullfilled Prophecies

I really don't know why people argue with crazzy. I guess for fun or something.



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