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supermario128 said:

MT Zehvor: No read at all.

You can't read me because I'm not a book.

:p



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Yoshiya said:

You seen certain on the size of the mafia here. Also, I thought you said there was an SK so does that mean it would only be 9 town and 1 SK in your mind?

Lastly, you seem certain that any of these extra kills are going to hit town rather than scum. For all we know (and is likely since scum having two Night kills seems OP) there is vig in this game that has a chance of hitting scum toNight.

I was certain since the start of the game. I think there are 5 mafia, obviously. True, SK makes it 9 town and one third party. Also true, SK could take out mafia. I have a feeling he was trying to do this night one as well, but messed up. You can't really blame his choice though.

I assumed two deaths from mafia was due to an extra strongman kill on night one. It could also mean two smaller teams or a limited vigilante, but I think my theory fits best.




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supermario128 said:
spurgeonryan said:
Question: how many more town can die before the game is over?

3 dead town
1 dead scum
Probably 2 more deaths tonight

That leaves us with 4 scum and 10 town.

Which would mean only 6 more town deaths.

How do you know the proportion of mafia/town?

MTZehvor said:
supermario128 said:

MT Zehvor: No read at all.

You can't read me because I'm not a book.

:p

How about, nobody can't read you because you've posted twice in the whole game.

spurge is witchhunting, others say thats spurge being town, but I think that's fishy.

As nen pointed out, I really didn't noticed it,  Nacho being roleneutralizer or blocker, it's slightly strange, isn't a role busdriver or somehting that could've done something with nacho and the SK/Vig, and surprinsingly lucky for us he picked a scummy nacho for us to linch? I don't know how many deaths at night to expect but, two kills and a poisoned one, seems too much. If that's true, Supermario's ratio is not correct. Now the thing is, mafia has many powers to kill 3 people day1, we have a vig or a SK.



Nen is just being nen but the way zero was so vehemently countering him clearly leans Zero as scum.
I'm finding a little tough to read HappyD



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spurgeonryan said:
@ nen

How as scum, if I were scum., would I know there were two scum teams? May I ask? That is the reason for two teams. So there is confusion.

Plus there is a hell of a lot of town deaths for two teams. Imo.

Also I cannot read zero, but unless happyd is a town that wants town to lose, he is scum. Because I would not think town would ber want town to lose. He is just not caring. Third party? Vanilla town role?

Doubt the latter. Third party or scum. Either way, third party has not helped us so far. So h should be lunched. Doesn't even need a scan wasted on him. I know...this last statement will be quoted by some tunneling imbecile, but I sad it anyways.

I reckon that 3 kills night 1 is way too much, but it's my first game and I really don't know if it's too much. Something else besides a mafia group is definitely out there.

As for the other things, yeah, don't blame me or the others that say that you write random things, and end up going after too many people. I'm keeping my point, that you play weird, but that doesn't mean that you are scum.

As of MTZehvor, I'd have preferred a modkill or a replacement, no offense mate. But, we are back to 0, we don't know a single thing about him, and if he will appear in a week, then it's a liability for town (even if he is town) I would not mind lynching him. 

And, speaking of inactivity, if prof doesn't replace seth, or states something, I'm going with rol's theory, that he is vanilla town.



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No, I'm not the poisoner. I assumed the poisoner was the SK because he usually is 90% of the time. It is odd when he isn't a SK. I got the impression that Yoshiya was the SK though. He sure does like to go after DT every game and probably thought he was scum as did a lot of people. Plus, it is the perfect cover because it is exactly what he would do as a SK, meaning no one would think he would actually do it because it would be too obvious.




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So, when you guys said more information will be available once a day or two passes you were not kidding! I will have to go back again and synthesize what have happened, but a few thoughts I want to share.

Zero's theory about nen fake claiming, claim going uncontested and then solidifying the universal read that he is town by exposing a confirmed mafia scum is moronic. But what does it mean, would scum really allow something like that to be posted, or is this a sign that zero is on his own? It's mind boggling to try to plant uncertainty about nen at this point. Scum would benefit from uncertainty but there is no way they would go about it that way unless we have a band of morons on our hand as mafia. Either I am being expert trolled by zero, or I am inclined to think he is town. Only alternative is he is incredibly poor scum and going at it on his own. Players with more meta on him, feel free to chime in.

I've also considered for a while that with 20 players, there is going to be at least one or two new players that are scum, makes sense from a balance perspective that us newbs would be divided up that way. Of the new players, benao87 seems to be a good town read to me. He's been helpful, active and fairly vocal when he contributes. Judging by my self as a new player, I would be very cautious of everything I said if I was scum, he has offered up enough information for me to think he is town.

I have a very strong town read on myself, so that leaves seth, Astro and that last guy who never posts. As spurge points out, it's quite possible that we'd have a hard push for replacing inactive scum players, so on that alone, the 2 post guy is possibly town. Of course, scum could be happy with having him basically fly under the radar as long as he's not drawing any interests and is basically written off as a none player... Seth and Astro, not really sure either way. Astro seems like a lurker who makes good observations whenever he comes on, so, capable of good reasoning, but comes on sparingly and with very short messages. To me that could be a sign of scum where he's told to come on often enough to not be pegged as a lurker, without giving up anything that could compromise his scum role. I guess if I had to pick one or two scum from the new players it would be Astro, then Seth. I fully admit though that the analysis is highly speculative.

Then we have our confirmed townies, rol, Radish and nen.

Stefl's miller claim has held up and seems believable enough right now, no need to doubt it for now

Spurge is wild, I am all twisted around by him. I think the combination of posting style and liberal spelling makes him seem more scummy to me than what he really is. Seems genuinely frustrated with the attention he is drawing, could be a ruse of course but by his own standards he's a bad mafia player, is he capable of fronting that he sucks while manipulating town? From his many many posts on vgchartz everyone knows that he is capable of producing anything from the most inane drivel to good analysis and often shows that behind a confusing facade there is solid reasoning. I am leaning town, but definitely not sure.

HappyDolphin, not at all too sure about this guy. He did push pretty hard against linkz when he was on his (admitted pretty weak) push against me. At that time, and before that started too he went out of his way to point out that I was showing deductible thinking skills and being excited that I was in the game. This could of course be relief that he recruited me and I didn't show up and blow the whole game, but it also did feel like he was buddying up. I think he knows that he would have an easy time buddying up with me, and it did sort of work. The incident with me and linkz that he also took an interest in had me almost completely convinced linkz was scum. While not sure, right now I get a scum vibe from HappyD.

Other players I am not very sure of. One thing that did stand out to me as it did to others was supermario asserting an absolute number of mafia players. I am sure many have considered a mafia of 5 to be likely, but to go out with absolute numbers as if there is nothing to debate is suspicious. I am leaning towards it being a mental slip up from someone who knows exactly how many mafia members there are and didn't remember to fake uncertainty. A scum read for me.

Yoshiya, we have the case radish built, back then it was enough for me to vote for his train, nothing has really moved me off that position. A decent lynch option for me unless something more solid comes to light.

Noctis and FF I am pretty neutral. More contribution from FF though in short spouts, but also covering a wide range of things which would seem townish to me. I am guessing scum trying to seem active will focus in on small parts of the conversation and not go too broad as it's easier to keep the story straight.



MTZehvor said:
supermario128 said:

MT Zehvor: No read at all.

You can't read me because I'm not a book.

:p

What the hell is this

prof please kill this sack of shit



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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

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spurgeonryan said:
@ nen

How as scum, if I were scum., would I know there were two scum teams? May I ask? That is the reason for two teams. So there is confusion.

Plus there is a hell of a lot of town deaths for two teams. Imo.

Also I cannot read zero, but unless happyd is a town that wants town to lose, he is scum. Because I would not think town would ber want town to lose. He is just not caring. Third party? Vanilla town role?

Doubt the latter. Third party or scum. Either way, third party has not helped us so far. So h should be lunched. Doesn't even need a scan wasted on him. I know...this last statement will be quoted by some tunneling imbecile, but I sad it anyways.

If you're in a mafia that's ridiculously undersized for the size of the town, it's not hard to guess there's another scum faction. 

And lots of kills is actually evidence in support of more factions. 



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

I forget, what are the votals? I suspect spurge,. I suspect zero (he may be extra-strength dumb town as people suspect, but I don't think we can rule out that he would say that stuff as mafia at all).

Mario, neutral. Rol, leaning town.

Zehvor, I want to kill because he is clearly not intending to play this game. I am more pissed at him than seth because seth is at least not coming in here making some retarded no-content joke post and pretending he "came back to the thread".



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom!