If it hasn't picked up by march under 4 million. It will be the last thing on everybody's mind next year unless sony have something that really grabs attention. Most people expect ps4 to show itself next year.

7m+

It will get a price drop next year and some games have been announced already. I don't expect Sony to let it die so we should see a decent 1st party lineup. It won't sell great but 7m should be doable at a lower price and with a better lineup.

6-8 million. Bigger, more frequent games + dat price cut.

What's bigger in a Sony console than Uncharted, COD and AC?

Uncharted sequel (I think is guaranteed), possible GTA (RS leeds have likely been working on GTA Vita since 2009). A lot of Japanese games are already announced, Tearaway, Soul Sacrifice and Killzone look promising, though admittedly unlikely to be big. I think we'll get a lot of announcements leading up to E3 for the second half of the year. COD and AC weren't exactly critically adored so they weren't big games despite the big name. I think we'll get a more consistent lineup quality-wise... and the price-cut will lead to a lot of software sales as well as hardware for obvious reasons.

I thought you were talking of already anounced games.

8 million - huge price cut and GTA

When you say huge, what do you mean? and at what point in the year?

I think $80 off both models will do tremendously, but Sony may not be able to afford that for a while... I'm not sure how long it takes for manufacturing costs to go down so any lurkers please enlighten me, but I would guess they'd have to wait until Q4 for that kind of cut.

It will sell something between 4 to 5 Million units.

Could be more if Sony reduces prices for the console itself and Storage cards.

Voted 6+ million.

Assuming a price cut some time around Q2-3 next year.

Also assuming that there's going to be some announcements for the holidays at E3 (I'd expect GTA, but the way things are going you never know).

Also assuming that Vita's Q1 lineup in Japan will give it a mild boost over there which will be sustained through the rest of the year with as-yet unannounced titles.

So yeah, a lot of assuming. Tearaway could be a decent holiday bundled title as well, but maybe they'll have to strike up an Assassin's Creed Liberation-style bundling deal with some third party as well/instead.