Voted 6+ million.
Assuming a price cut some time around Q2-3 next year.
Also assuming that there's going to be some announcements for the holidays at E3 (I'd expect GTA, but the way things are going you never know).
Also assuming that Vita's Q1 lineup in Japan will give it a mild boost over there which will be sustained through the rest of the year with as-yet unannounced titles.
So yeah, a lot of assuming. Tearaway could be a decent holiday bundled title as well, but maybe they'll have to strike up an Assassin's Creed Liberation-style bundling deal with some third party as well/instead.