Like I said, there'a a good possibility hat is needed just to get some breathing room against mafia. If it is 8/5/1 then lynching him means we need to go perfect every Day to win. While he could have lied about his wincon, our best bet is to try to lynch mafia for now and lynch him down the line.(like maybe the end of the line)
Also the spurge kill reeks of solo hat, as I don't think a mafia team would waste a kill like that.