What really amazes me is that Sony should be have been able to predict such an outcome - it's almost as if they expected either third party or user base to jump in well AFTER the launch, or maybe worse, that the methods with which they predict adhesion to the system are completely inefficient.

Anyway - here is a great article about the Vita in Japan and actually gives some hope on the system surviving thanks to PSN and indie games :

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/178802/the_state_of_the_vita_2012.php?page=3

I voted dead.

I don't think Call of Duty-Vita or Assassin's Creed-Vita will save the system.

People will just buy those two games for their console.

3ds outselling Vita by a factor of 6.8 globally now.

I specifically remember most of the third party 3ds games outselling that greatly even when it was doing so poorly. Maybe for a 3 million user base that would be an accomplishment but isn't the vita supposed to be aimed at the people who go out of their way to buy stuff like ac? How can 3ds games be outselling vita games like that even when it was doing so bad? Might sound pretty sarcastic here, but I thought sony systems were supposed to be safer for third parties.

If things are like this next year at this time, then it will most likely be the point of no return. Once Sony lowers the price to at least 199, it will be at a much more competitive price. I also think people are turned off by the mandatory memory cards without the option of using a 3rd party's card. The 3DS is cheaper to buy, cheaper to create for and is getting constant release and support. But it also has been out longer than the Vita. I would say lets wait until summer 2013 to see if there is still so much doom and gloom.

People won't be willing to wait that long. From a developer and publisher perspective people will be buying games on 3ds and they won't bother developing for vita if call of duty is truly not shifting ground breaking units. Monster hunter and dragon quest are out by the end of march on 3ds so unless soul sacrifice manages to shift numbers japan won't care. And retailers will start assuming people just don't want it if new year sales don't take it off. Retailers and publishers will likely see it going nowhere if it hasn't sold by summer.

Without a price cut I don’t think the Vita is going to do any better, no matter what games are released for it. I think people are now excited about consoles, now the Wii U and in the future the PS4 and Nextbox. This means that people, unless being diehard Sony fans, will not go out and buy a handheld for just one of two games that they can also get for a console that they already own. For example, why in hell would anybody go and buy a Vita just to play Assassins Creed when they already have a PS3 or 360 and Assassins Creed 3 is available? It just doesn’t make any sense.

Your post is very true if we were talking worldwide. However, we are talking solely about Japan, and the Japanese are mad about handhelds. If the Vita can't even sell well there...

But your point is accurate, consoles are the future and handhelds will slowly die out and leave only mobiles etc. in their place.

The problem I see is that while PS plus is offering tons of amazing things, very few nonsony console owners even know it exists.  Microsoft really did do a great job at convincing people that XBOX live is the only "real" option.  For this reason I dont see many people jumping to get onto the Vita because of PS plus offerings = if you dont know about something its difficult to get hyped for it or let alone purchase it. 

As I mentioned earlier  Sony just really cannot afford to cut the price of the Vita, at least not drastically. While I do not know their margins, the system is fairly advanced and has a decent amount of expensive components, lowering the price drastically and forcing the company to swallow even tighter margins (or god forbid a loss) just doesnt seem to be in the cards for Sony.