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Forums - Politics Discussion - Is Romney actually leading in the polls or are some people delusional?

Or Romney brainwashed those people or threathed them in some way that they should vote him otherwise something bad happened to them ~~ i don't know much about political but these are my answer xD



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Kasz216 said:
dsgrue3 said:
richardhutnik said:
dsgrue3 s

 

 

 

Clinton.

This is incorrect.  Bill Clinton could note veto that bill.           Yes, he could have. Which you admit in the next sentence.

Well ok he could of but it wouldn't of mattered.

The Banking Modernizations act passed with a stunning  83% vote in the house of representatives meaning any veto would be overturned.     You need both houses of congress to pass a bill without presidential approval. Interesting how you neglected to post the senate. Allow me, 54–44 vote along basically-partisan lines (53 Republicans and 1 Democrat in favor; 44 Democrats opposed) Your point, however, stands. The Congress is to blame for as much of this as any President.

75% of House Democrats voted for the bill.  Largely because it was mostly a smart move.
How you can suggest this after the outcome is perplexing. Obviously the de-regulation has played a vital role in the economy of today. (Negatively)

Also, this didn't deregulate big banks really.  All it did was let the banks merge easier... assuming said banks got good CRA reviews.

Yes, yes it did. No, it allowed the banks to make investments. (Stock Market) Essentially allowing them to gamble with your, and my money.

Which is why they gave more unqualified loans.  Not because the bill had any new laws or lesser lending restrictions, but because to be able to merge and buy other banks, you needed to give said loans under CRA guidelines.

True, the bill had little impact on the unqualified loans. (MY BAD!) This was essentially the problem of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

 

GBL is actually seen as part of the GFC because it allowed banks to get "Too big to fail".   So really it's only a problem if you think there are banks that actually are too big to fail.

Define your acronyms before using them with such inpetuosity.

Doesn't seem that way to me though.   Let those banks fail, peoples debts be wiped clean, and if you need to normalzie credit (which never even happened so whatever) then throw money out there directly or empower the smaller more intellegent banks.

Prior to 2011, I would have agreed with you. Sometimes, it is a good investment to save a "Big Bank". If you need verification of this, look no further than Warren Buffet's investment in Goldman Sachs when they were struggling financially.





binary solo said:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
"Our snapshot of where the presidential race stands is based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls — filtered through a poll-tracking model — and updated throughout the day. "

Suggests Obama is a shoe-in with 270 ECV already locked up in states strongly supporting Obama. Sure Huffpost is a bastion of leftwing socialist Obama loving bloggers. But it's collating hundreds of polls on an ongoing basis. So it's not just one polling organisation's results. I don't think that poll of polls can be so badly wrong that the real pictyure is Romney with a 5 point margin over Obama. I don't see Obama winning by anything like teh ECV count this map suggests, but I think things are in Obama's favour right now.

Also the Iowa Electronic Markets are showing massive investment in Obama "shares" right now, and that's people putting actual money on the outcome.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_VS.cfm
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm

This market correctly predicted (as nearly everyone in the world did) the 2008 result, but it was incorrect about the 2004 result. It was actually correct about the 2000 result (i.e. that Gore had more votes nationally than Bush), but of course number of votes nationally doesn't choose the president, even in years when the Supreme Court stays out of it.

I don't think many (rational) people are claiming that Romney has a large lead on Obama, just that the assumptions of many of the polls are incorrect and the race is closer than they're really suggesting; and either candidate leading is probably within the margin of error.



binary solo said:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map
"Our snapshot of where the presidential race stands is based on hundreds of state-wide and national opinion polls — filtered through a poll-tracking model — and updated throughout the day. "

Suggests Obama is a shoe-in with 270 ECV already locked up in states strongly supporting Obama. Sure Huffpost is a bastion of leftwing socialist Obama loving bloggers. But it's collating hundreds of polls on an ongoing basis. So it's not just one polling organisation's results. I don't think that poll of polls can be so badly wrong that the real pictyure is Romney with a 5 point margin over Obama. I don't see Obama winning by anything like teh ECV count this map suggests, but I think things are in Obama's favour right now.

Also the Iowa Electronic Markets are showing massive investment in Obama "shares" right now, and that's people putting actual money on the outcome.
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_VS.cfm
http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres12_WTA.cfm

This market correctly predicted (as nearly everyone in the world did) the 2008 result, but it was incorrect about the 2004 result. It was actually correct about the 2000 result (i.e. that Gore had more votes nationally than Bush), but of course number of votes nationally doesn't choose the president, even in years when the Supreme Court stays out of it.

Margin of error is for a single poll.  When you average together polls in the same time period, the margin of error should decrease.  Assuming that the polls are decent, then if about all of them show someone leading, the odds are real strong they areleading.  The prediction markets also do a good job predicting things.



dsgrue3 said:
Kasz216 said:
dsgrue3 said:
richardhutnik said:
dsgrue3 s

 

 

 

Clinton.

This is incorrect.  Bill Clinton could note veto that bill.           Yes, he could have. Which you admit in the next sentence.

Well ok he could of but it wouldn't of mattered.

The Banking Modernizations act passed with a stunning  83% vote in the house of representatives meaning any veto would be overturned.     You need both houses of congress to pass a bill without presidential approval. Interesting how you neglected to post the senate. Allow me, 54–44 vote along basically-partisan lines (53 Republicans and 1 Democrat in favor; 44 Democrats opposed) Your point, however, stands. The Congress is to blame for as much of this as any President.

75% of House Democrats voted for the bill.  Largely because it was mostly a smart move.
How you can suggest this after the outcome is perplexing. Obviously the de-regulation has played a vital role in the economy of today. (Negatively)

Also, this didn't deregulate big banks really.  All it did was let the banks merge easier... assuming said banks got good CRA reviews.

Yes, yes it did. No, it allowed the banks to make investments. (Stock Market) Essentially allowing them to gamble with your, and my money.

Which is why they gave more unqualified loans.  Not because the bill had any new laws or lesser lending restrictions, but because to be able to merge and buy other banks, you needed to give said loans under CRA guidelines.

True, the bill had little impact on the unqualified loans. (MY BAD!) This was essentially the problem of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

 

GBL is actually seen as part of the GFC because it allowed banks to get "Too big to fail".   So really it's only a problem if you think there are banks that actually are too big to fail.

Define your acronyms before using them with such inpetuosity.

Doesn't seem that way to me though.   Let those banks fail, peoples debts be wiped clean, and if you need to normalzie credit (which never even happened so whatever) then throw money out there directly or empower the smaller more intellegent banks.

Prior to 2011, I would have agreed with you. Sometimes, it is a good investment to save a "Big Bank". If you need verification of this, look no further than Warren Buffet's investment in Goldman Sachs when they were struggling financially.




  I swear, I don't understand why people think replying in the comment they're replying to is a good thing.  It's just plain annoying.

 

Aslo... um no.   GBL passed  90-8 in the senate.   Your thinking of an earlier bill before reconciliation.



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dsgrue3 said:
Kasz216 said:
dsgrue3 said:
richardhutnik said:
dsgrue3 s

 

 

 

Clinton.

This is incorrect.  Bill Clinton could note veto that bill.           Yes, he could have. Which you admit in the next sentence.

Well ok he could of but it wouldn't of mattered.

The Banking Modernizations act passed with a stunning  83% vote in the house of representatives meaning any veto would be overturned.     You need both houses of congress to pass a bill without presidential approval. Interesting how you neglected to post the senate. Allow me, 54–44 vote along basically-partisan lines (53 Republicans and 1 Democrat in favor; 44 Democrats opposed) Your point, however, stands. The Congress is to blame for as much of this as any President.

75% of House Democrats voted for the bill.  Largely because it was mostly a smart move.
How you can suggest this after the outcome is perplexing. Obviously the de-regulation has played a vital role in the economy of today. (Negatively)

Also, this didn't deregulate big banks really.  All it did was let the banks merge easier... assuming said banks got good CRA reviews.

Yes, yes it did. No, it allowed the banks to make investments. (Stock Market) Essentially allowing them to gamble with your, and my money.

Which is why they gave more unqualified loans.  Not because the bill had any new laws or lesser lending restrictions, but because to be able to merge and buy other banks, you needed to give said loans under CRA guidelines.

True, the bill had little impact on the unqualified loans. (MY BAD!) This was essentially the problem of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

 

GBL is actually seen as part of the GFC because it allowed banks to get "Too big to fail".   So really it's only a problem if you think there are banks that actually are too big to fail.

Define your acronyms before using them with such inpetuosity.

Doesn't seem that way to me though.   Let those banks fail, peoples debts be wiped clean, and if you need to normalzie credit (which never even happened so whatever) then throw money out there directly or empower the smaller more intellegent banks.

Prior to 2011, I would have agreed with you. Sometimes, it is a good investment to save a "Big Bank". If you need verification of this, look no further than Warren Buffet's investment in Goldman Sachs when they were struggling financially.



Whoops, double posted... but i'll use this to handle the rest.

Look at the legislation again.

1) Commercial Banks could already invest in the stock market before this and investment banks could already offer savings plans.

Additionally, not it is still illegal to gamble in the stock market with customers money.   See why what MF Global did was illegal... but isn't be prosecuted because well... John Corzine is the former democratic govonor of new jersey and big Obama campaign contributor.  (Was going to be on is 2nd term presidtial team according to MF Global contracts.

 

 

2) The Acronyms should be simple.   GLB - Gramm Leach Bliley, and GFC is obviously global finaical crisis... that's a very common one.

 

 

3) Not seeing how Warren Buffet privately taking over a valuable bank = government bailout of a bank.

Warren buffet snatched up a failing bank that still had more profit then loss.

 

The same would of happened to any of the big banks the government bailed out.... that didn't fuck up too badly.  The rest would  of died off, and we'd be better off for it.



sethnintendo said:
famousringo said:
noname2200 said:
I've always thought holding a president responsible for an economy's failure or success is largely akin to older cultures lynching the village leader for a poor harvest or worshiping him for a great one.

But maybe that's just me.

Since the second world war, economic crises have become less frequent and less severe. That's thanks to central banks, welfare states,


Hasn't the USA had a meltdown about every 10 years though?  There was the oil crisis and hyper inflation, stock market crash in the late 80s, dot com bubble in the 90s, housing market crash in late 2000, etc.  There is a bubble every 10 years or so still.

The oil crisis wasn't the fault of the financial system, it was a result of foreign powers flexing their economic muscle to control the trade of a vital resource. Can't fault bankers if a bunch of oil barons start playing with their near-monopoly on oil exports.

The recession in the 80s and the dot com bubble were relatively minor economic disturbances compared to the recessions of the 19th century. Even the 2008 crisis is chump change compared to those days. This wikipedia article does a better job than the last one of illustrating my point:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

The subprime mortgage crisis is the worst crisis the US economy has faced since the end of the second great war, and it retarded the economy by 5.1%. This is still softer than every single recession the US economy faced in the 19th century, with estimated economic impacts ranging from 5.9% to 37.3%.



"The worst part about these reviews is they are [subjective]--and their scores often depend on how drunk you got the media at a Street Fighter event."  — Mona Hamilton, Capcom Senior VP of Marketing
*Image indefinitely borrowed from BrainBoxLtd without his consent.

Kasz216 said:
dsgrue3 said:
Kasz216 said:
dsgrue3 said:
richardhutnik said:
dsgrue3 s

 

 

 





  I swear, I don't understand why people think replying in the comment they're replying to is a good thing.  It's just plain annoying.

 

Aslo... um no.   GBL passed  90-8 in the senate.   Your thinking of an earlier bill before reconciliation.

Whoops, double posted... but i'll use this to handle the rest.

Look at the legislation again.

1) Commercial Banks could already invest in the stock market before this and investment banks could already offer savings plans.

Additionally, not it is still illegal to gamble in the stock market with customers money.   See why what MF Global did was illegal... but isn't be prosecuted because well... John Corzine is the former democratic govonor of new jersey and big Obama campaign contributor.  (Was going to be on is 2nd term presidtial team according to MF Global contracts.

 

 

2) The Acronyms should be simple.   GLB - Gramm Leach Bliley, and GFC is obviously global finaical crisis... that's a very common one.

 

 

3) Not seeing how Warren Buffet privately taking over a valuable bank = government bailout of a bank.

Warren buffet snatched up a failing bank that still had more profit then loss.

 

The same would of happened to any of the big banks the government bailed out.... that didn't fuck up too badly.  The rest would  of died off, and we'd be better off for it.

I am speaking on the Senate's version of the GLB. In order to pass the bill with bipartisan support, it needed to be modified in order to produce the final bill that was ultimately passed 90-8. Since Republicans had a majority in the Senate, it passed regardless of Democratic disapproval.

Learn the difference between would've and would have. (There is no "would of") I cannot stand to see such elementary errors on your behalf.

1) Banks were only able to do so in the couple years prior to GLB because it was a process of change. (Other provisions were relaxed from Glass-Steagall)

2) I can name several common acronyms that you would have no idea of their meaning. You define your acronyms prior to using them. This is common logic.

3) Never mentioned anything about Warren Buffet being a government entity. You seem rather confused. I stated that Warren saved a gigantic failing bank, which ultimately improved. The same can be said of the government bailouts.

Why you would want banks to fail is beyond me. More banks = more competition and better rates for the populace.

 

 



Mr Khan said:

Polling *has* to be a science, otherwise it's totally meaningless. If you just go around asking people questions, you can't be certain whether your sample was really random. If you go outside a church at noon on a Sunday and ask "how important is Jesus in your life" and then declare that these people represent everyone in your town or county, then you're likely to think your town or county is much more Christian than it might be.

Do you get it?

No, not really.

I get that you can't poll some people and then say that everyone is like them, but I don't see how that makes it a science.



NintendoPie said:
Mr Khan said:

Polling *has* to be a science, otherwise it's totally meaningless. If you just go around asking people questions, you can't be certain whether your sample was really random. If you go outside a church at noon on a Sunday and ask "how important is Jesus in your life" and then declare that these people represent everyone in your town or county, then you're likely to think your town or county is much more Christian than it might be.

Do you get it?

No, not really.

I get that you can't poll some people and then say that everyone is like them, but I don't see how that makes it a science.

Because how do you decide to choose a group of people that will perfectly represent the group you are trying to really get to?

That's science. I need 2000 people to represent America (a body of 300 million), how do i pick them?



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