PS2 had ~20 million units in consumers homes before GC and X360 launched. PS3 not only doesn't have a near 20 million unit lead, it's behind by 7 million (X360) and 11.17 million.

I only bring this up because a console with a 20 million unit head start will easily continue to out gain the competition but a console that must play catch up will in no way shape or form have sales on the level of the first console.

Crazzy said:

DMC4, Disgaea3, AC releases in Japan. Turok release in USA. Japan increase is lower then expected.

Actually, Turok wasn't released this week in USA, just a heap of leaked copies I think.

The problem with this analysis, is that Ps3 has 20 % of its share in Japan while Ps2 has 16 %. Therefore, it clearly favours Ps3.

@crazzy

The true comparison of these two consoles will not be clear until 2010 is over, and we get the first comparison of the "dropoff" years, which is year 4, I believe.

16 million would be great for the PS3, however, I feel it wouldn't prove that the PS3 would gonna sell as much as the PS2, and in fact, I think most evidence would still be against the possibility even if it did sell 16 mill.

Look at the grows in video-game history.

3rd gen: 70 million.
4th gen: 80 million,
5th gen: 140M
6th gen: 170M

As you see, video gaming is becomming more popular.

For Ps3 to sell as much as Ps2, how big would the overall sales have to be?

Wii: will sell at least 60M
X360: Will sell at least 30M, almost certain 35M +.
Ps3: 125M

That means this gen will have to be at 215M sales, and that is minimum. That would mean a 45M increase. Or the biggest increase since 3D became a fact. It is possible, but if this is the case, there wouln't be a lot of blue ocean joining.

If Ps3 sells 120M +, this would most likely be the sales:

Wii: 100M
Ps3: 125M
Xbox 360: 60M.

That would mean 280M +, which I really doubt.

What I am saying, is that the other consoles are selling so much, that for PS3 to sell 125M will be nearly impossible, as there is a cap of amount for number of gamers.

http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2®2=America&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii®3=All&game3=&weeks=20

That is the more correct link for comparing SMG to GTA:SA.

Or, since GTA:SA didn't sell a lot in Japan, you could do this: http://vgchartz.com/swlaunch.php?reg1=All&game1=Grand+Theft+Auto%3A+San+Andreas+-+PS2®2=America&game2=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii®3=Japan&game3=Super+Mario+Galaxy+-+Wii&weeks=20

and add up SMG Jap + America, since that would be how much they both sold without Europe.

That is, at SMG's time in USA atm, 3.9M SMG vs 5.6M SA. The favour is even bigger for GTA:SA because 43 % of its total sales were in Europe, while SMG only has 30 %. Thereby you could add it up, and see that fictionally, GTA:SA was at 8.008 while SMG is at 5.07.

We can thereby sum up that GTA:SA sold roughly 60 % more than SMG at the time.

Further on, we can add that if we take away the first 5 weeks, SMG loses 2.1M and ends at 1.8M from week 8-12 while GTA:SA loses 3.8M, meaning that from week 5-12 it sold 1.9M. Both games had christmas in this period.

What also should be mentioned, is that GTA:SA launched in late 2004, meaning it only had 2 years of sales, while SMG will have minimum 4. As Galaxy is likely to be a long-legged game, it will sell the last 2 years too.

If we then assume that Galaxy manages a 5K/week for worldwide in those years, it will catch 500K there.

It should also be said, that this comparison is slightly unfair, because Europe is a legged game, so while GTA:SA get's the legs added in here as overall, SMG doesn't. That means we are a slight bit in favour of GTA:SA in this comparison. We can thereby say that GTA:SA is maybe only 2.5M in front of SMG.

Feel free to comment what I said.

EDIT: This was meant to be in your other thread :P

I can't believe you people are still trying to kid yourselves the PS3 is in any way in the same boat as the PS2 was. Do these fevered delussions never cease? Optimism is one thing. Excitement at outselling the 360 is one thing. But this is just pure blind insanity.

Even if we were to buy into your logic and assume the Ps3 will sell 115million just like the PS2 has thus far, then by your logic the Wii will sell 250million units if not more in the same time.

Good point GGE. By Crazzy's method, we should see 130M Xbox, 120M Ps3 and 250M Wii. Which means 1/12 people will buy a console, and if we subtract people without work, house or below BDI, we get 1/6 which is

Crazy

@ GGE

IMPORTANT:
IF you don`t care about sales of Sony products - LEAVE this thread.
IF you are Sony hater - LEAVE this thread.
IF you DON`T believe in PS3 success - LEAVE this thread.


Now I don't agree with Crazzy, but he did warn you on the first page of this thread.

IF you don`t care about sales of Sony products - LEAVE this thread. She cares about Sony products, since she posts this.
IF you are Sony hater - LEAVE this thread. She doesn't hate sony, she might be a little anti-them but not a lot.
IF you DON`T believe in PS3 success - LEAVE this thread. Success is subjective, IMO GC was a success; it made money.