There are 9 players left. 

Assuming there are 2 Mafia and 2 Overlords left (make sense having 3 from each) 

Town: Non-town is 5:4

If we include players that can vote- I think it is 4:3. 

We lynch a town, it becomes 3:3 and then Mafia nightkill makes it either 2:3, OR 2:2. I see no reason why they would kill Nen if he is on the non-nightkill team. 

Either way we lose. We have to hit Mafia or Overlord tonight. 

DT, are you sure that's how it works? Isn't MYLO town to dual scum split by faction? Wouldn't that make it 4:2 at best? At those numbers, we lynch a townie, we lose. Hitting the right faction would help, since nen is silenced he reduces the majority count by 1.

Also, how do we know there is a no-nightkill team? How would a setup like that even work?

I'm not sure if that's how it works. That is what I gathered from "Mis-lynch and lose". Please correct me wuth what you think it is. 

Bolded so that this is noticed, I said 2:2 - I meant 3:2*.  

From what I understand of MYLO- if we lynch a townie we lose. This could be because there is only one more town then Mafia, or it could be because there is 2 more town then mafia, and worse case is that we lynch town and then another gets killed. 

As there are 7 players that can vote (thats the important bit), and there must be a town majority for us not to have lost yet, with two non-town factions, I think there must be 4 town players left that can vote at maximum. (There could be 3 town players and 2 from each of the other teams to make 7) but i'm pretty sure nen is non-town, so for balancing purposes i think it is 4:2:1 Voting left. (4 town, 2 scum/overlord and 1scum/overlord). 

Worst case scenario, we miss-lynch and one of the scum-teams kills a town, making it 2:2:1 and then we've lost, as we dont have a majority. 

Does that makes sense?

I think it is safe to assume there is a no-night kill team, as we have had 4 nights and there has only ever been 1 kill.

I don't think it's "mislynch and we WILL lose" -- I think it's "mislynch and we could possibly lose". If everything goes wrong -- town gets lynched, town gets killed, town gets silenced -- then tomorrow town can't win. That doesn't mean it will happen. Especially if we lynch tab or noc

This far there was 1 doc (Zero) lynched night 1, Linkz lynched night 3, and spurge as nurse. When was he modkilled?

DT, you may be right on both counts (the 4:2:1 and the 1 kill per night). Also, notice how the three midnight kills were townies, not scum of either faction -> Hatz (CH), Mantle (CH), prof (Shadowling).

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=4798516
This is spurge's modkill post. I believe it was Day 2.

About 40% down page 37 on 50 posts a page if you want to find the exact post btw.

Thanks, yup that's day 2. I also made some calculations.

Totals by race

Of those left

It's likely that we have 4 liars. Probs 2 Shadowspawn and 2 CH lying.

Of All players

Guys, it just doesn't make sense that there are less Shadowspawn proper (5) than Corrupted humans (6). Since Shadowspawn proper can be both mafia and town, that group should be bigger than the Corrupted Humans group imho. There is at least one other overlord (otherwise what's the point).

well if we can assume that the role distribution is 6 shadowspawn (with 4 proper and 2 shadowlings), 6 corrupted humans, 3 Godlike and 3 Human/Others for balance purposes that means someone is claiming shadowspawn without being it.
So it's either nen or nox. Oh well you guys can think it's me, but you're wrong.