Do we know this or is it speculation/rumour?

We know it. http://www.gamesthirst.com/2012/03/14/report-guerrilla-games-crytek-hiring-for-next-gen-consoles/

We know plenty of third parties are, but Guerilla Games is first party which makes them more notable. Similar story for Sucker punch I think.

Whoops

I know I'm being a bit of a nitpicker here but it does just say "a Netherlands studio, most likely Guerilla Games" and "next gen technologies", not next gen games. They might just have been asked to give input on the early design phases of the PS4/720 interface or something.

We've seen countless rumours and "leaks" and next-gen listings for all sorts of publishers, EA has confirmed they've seen both. You can consider the article linked speculation, but even then it just makes far too much sense for these FP studios at Sony who are currently working on unnanounced games to not be working on Orbis games. Honestly I think it's obvious and I don't see how others think Guerilla games, sucker punch and the 2nd team at ND etc. aren't working on next-gen games.

Of course they can release the PS4 in 2013. The bigger problem is the business model Sony (and Microsoft) used in the past. When the PS3 was released Sony was still in a decent financial position due to SCE being a highly profitable division. But for the last 6 years SCE has been bleeding money. This time Microsoft can literally outspend Sony if both companies use the same business model again. Microsoft could easily handle a $1 billion (or higher) loss per year for some time and then recoup the money later. Can Sony do the same in its current position? How long can they keep posting red numbers at the end of each year before they hit a wall?

No sir,

They won't.

Sony has never released a home console with 6 month lead time from announcement to launch.  Not only would it be dumb to do such a thing, but it goes against what Sony, and almost every single sucessful home console has done to properly prepare for a console launch.  They only console to do such a potentially stupid thing is Microsoft with the XBOX 360......and even then, everyone knew almost everything about it, with only the name needing to be "finalized".

For every Playstation, there is always, at minium, at least 1 year from some form of announcement by Sony, and a launch. 

Marketing and hype is important.

So like I said, TGS 2012 is pretty much the last hope and last ditch chance for a holiday 2013 launch....but that would constitute hopes & dreams....basically.

This generation Microsoft was on the soft side of hardcore, and Nintendo was on the strong side of casual. What you aren't realizing is that Nintendo didn't you know actually move all that much to get there. Prior to this generation they were on the weak core side. All they did was take one more step down the ladder. They also had a very good reason to do that. Namely nobody was buying what they were selling so they had to change their image. People are buying what it is that Microsoft is selling, and so it isn't like they have any reason to change. Not to mention that would be a pretty huge change. An almost complete about face on their existing customers. This wouldn't just be moving a single space they would have to make three moves to get to where Nintendo is now, and perhaps a total of four if they were intent on beating Nintendo at its game.

Sure Microsoft put out a casual peripheral, and a few first party games. What that didn't have any impact on whatsoever is their soft hardcore title selection. It isn't as if Microsoft abandoned those properties that made them successful, or retasked those studios. Sure Lionshead is making a game for Kinect, but they are more the highly experimental studio. Microsoft isn't going to screw around with franchises that sell ten million units. Basically Microsoft supported Kinect by investing in new studios to support it, or by utilizing under performing studios.

I bet your the kind of person that would question the idea of the Sun actually coming up tomorrow. Nodody has to say that is going to happen. Just as it should go without saying that Microsoft going heavy on the hardware was a genius move that it is in their best interest to repeat. They didn't just beat Sony by doing that. They caused Sony to lose a fucking massive amount of money. Microsoft is the company of market dominance after all. I think they want to encourage Sony into trying to match them again, and will push the hardware enough to force Sony to make at least a half hearted effort. Microsoft is just that nice of a company. I think Sony will show restraint enough to not sell at a loss, but I also expect in trying to be close to Microsoft they aren't going to leave themselves with the margin they will need to deal with unexpected eventualities.

In answer to your question how was it that this wasn't the case this generation. The PS3 isn't superior to the 360. Hell in a lot of ways it is inferior. The difference is in this generation even though both loss lead on their hardware. Microsoft was actually in position to take the greater losses. The 360 was simply put way too overpowered. Which is kind of the reason for the whole ring of death fiasco. The PS3 may have been cutting edge for when it launched, but the 360 atleast as far as capabilities were concerned started out ahead of the curve. All it is going to take is for Microsoft to say they are willing to lose two hundred dollars on each unit up front, and for Sony to say we insist on fifty dollars profit for Microsoft to win the hardware was. Sure components go down in price over time, but they don't go down that fast in a years time.

Anyway yeah I think I won that one.

No offense to you Dodece,

But alot of what you wrote was very difficult to read.  You were kinda all over the place, and it came off as convoluted.....not to mention some grammar that was so bad in some parts, that it made understanding you difficult.

You even go on to talk about WEAK CORE.....SOFTCORE.....STEPPING DOWN LADDERS....

My friend, I have almost no idea what the heck you are talking about....but, perhaps against my better judgement,  I am gonna try anyways....lol

But here's a couple of things...

Microsoft has shut down ENSEMBLE, ACES, FASA, DIGITAL ANVIL, and turned RARE into nothing but a casual game studio.   Microsoft has clearly shown that they care more about Kinect and casual gaming more than ever.  They also seem to care more for "media box" related stuff more than ever as well.   HARDCORE gaming for Microsoft has clearly taken a back seat.

Another thing,  Again, we don't know that Microsoft is going to release an XBOX 3 in 2013, and there are several signs that show that they won't.  Perhaps one of the most poignant signs, is their  recent 2 year subsidy  deal.  Why would Microsoft roll out such a plan, only to bring out an XBOX 3 1 year later?   That makes about as much sense as 2 left shoes.

So no...XBOX 3 is not guaranteed for 2013.....it's 50/50 at best.

And for Sony...PS4 chances are much much worse.  It's almost an impossibility at this point.  Too late for the PS4, unless of course you are pinning your Hopes & Dreams on a TGS announcement this month.

Not to mention, Sony has already said no, several times.