| Dodece said: That said there are three variables that are going almost entirely ignored in this thread. Which will really dictate how things will play out next generation. One is the more obvious how the economy will fare in the upcoming year. Europe could tip over the edge, and that would have a disastrous impact on the bottom line at Sony. Not only that, but it would have a ripple effect globally. If that happens Sony has a pretty secure position in staying put with their current hardware. Hell such a global economic situation might have Microsoft putting its own plans on hold for a couple years. Number two is how Nintendo fairs with its new hardware. This could be a real barometer for market demand as far as new hardware is concerned. What will Sony see if Nintendo the previous generations market leader has to struggle mightily to match current hardware, or gasp fares worse then current hardware. They will see what would amount to a fairly toxic environment to launch a console into. In such a case it wouldn't matter all that much to lose to Microsoft as long as they don't have to lose horribly when it came to their ledger. Number three has to be how powerful Microsoft makes its next console, and the price point that they are willing to launch with. It is easy to say Sony doesn't have to loss lead, or doesn't have to lose all that much. What isn't at all easy to say is that Sony can afford to lose the other wars. The price war, or the value war. If Microsoft matches Sony, but has a much lower retail price that would be a serious problem for Sony. Which holds equally true if the two have price parity, but Microsoft has a machine that is undeniably two to three times more powerful. Sony may not have a choice as far as loss leading is concerned, or they may choose a more logical alternative. Which would be waiting until they could both match and profit. The important thing that is getting lost in this discussion is that consoles aren't like other electronic products. You can make ten television models, lose on half of them, but win enough on the other half to come ahead. When it comes to consoles how you fare on the first product directly impacts how you will fare on the products attached to it, or what kind of stigma it will have on previous products. For instance if the PS4 fails hard it will actually have a fairly disastrous impact on lingering PS3 sales. Yeah I know it is crazy but the bleed through into the next gen can run both ways. By the way I think most of you are over gauging the after generation sales of the PS3 by applying how the PS2 did perform early in this generation. We are talking different beasts here. The PS3 doesn't have the largest library in the market by far. It wasn't the lead console this generation, and last but not least. Unless the PS4 is supremely overpriced it will not defer brand loyalists into a holding pattern. It will probably not be the case that people say I am going to buy a PS3 until the PS4 comes down. Consumers will learn from this generation, and instead of just buying a hold off device will simply wait half a year for a price war to take its toll. |
.I think a bad economic situation in Europe hurts Sony and Nintendo more, but it would definitely still hurt Microsoft. Though it depends on where.
If the economic impact doesn't negatively affect the US, then I believe any and everyone will release their new consoles in the States. It would be the largest market to win market share in. But I think Europe negatively impacts both Nintendo and Sony more so than it does Microsoft. Certainly depending on which country/region we're talking about. But there in lies the crux of the problem for Sony in 2013. Microsoft has every incentive to push a new console in markets where it doesn't perform. Especially if it can get there before Sony. Microsoft clearly has Europe in its sights as the next market it wants to conquer. If Europe's economy goes in the can, I think Microsoft still launches the next Xbox because it has less to lose in a new product launch. Where as Sony has strong sales with the PS3. My guess would be that Sony would hold off on launching the PS4 and instead let the PS3 continue to ride out most of 2014 a strong launch would be feasible. In an ideal situation they wouldn't lose much if any market share to Microsoft because the cost difference and the popularity of the Sony brand over the Microsoft brand in Europe. The only problem is if the next Xbox took off and took the 2nd spot in Europe. I think the Wii U will still be #1 in Europe in the initial stages of the next generation.
I think Nintendo has two years of significant success. 2013 and then 2014. After that point, I think Sony and Microsoft will begin to impact the Wii U's sales. Both offer a more mature offering for online services and for HD gaming. The really big question, beyond connected experiences (i.e. tablets, PS Vita), what do these two have in-store? Sure, it looks like Microsoft will be offering more entertainment options to its console, but I can't imagine that's it. And there has been nothing regarding what will be brought to the PS4 and PSN, except new means of providing advertisements.
That being said, I don't know if Wii U sales will necessarily dictate PS4 or next Xbox sales. I agree, they will be a barometer, but it really depends on whether consumers feel burned by Nintendo or whether they buy into the sales pitch. If they feel burned then Sony and Microsoft have a huge opportunity to gain market share.
I don't think the power difference between the PS4 and the next Xbox will be that significantly different. Graphically, I think they'll be pretty darn close as they were this time, right now I am hedging my guess that the Xbox will have a slightly more powerful CPU. If they both price at $400, then my guess is that whoever has the smallest loss will win the that battle. Because whoever can reduce their price the fastest without a loss will make money and have room to compete more effectively against Nintendo.
Another thing to remember is that consoles have royalties and residuals. Though today's Smart TVs may also have that.
And one final note. I think more importantly is what developers do. If third-party developers pretty much abandon the PS3 and start developing for the PS4, then you can guarantee that consumers will follow. However, that likely means the install base will have to be strong. No one is going to want to dedicate the time necessary to put out a PS3 title if they don't have to. So I kind of see developers moving quickly away from the PS3 to the PS4. I don't foresee an issue for Microsoft. While some developers may move away from the Xbox 360, the likelihood is that they'll be able to code and compile once for multiple platforms from within the same IDE. I don't believe that'll be the case with the PS4 and PS3.
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