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Forums - General Discussion - Mafia Round 45: Friendship is Mafia

Final-Fan said:

I don't know what you guys are talking about.


How scary that I was just about to reply to your pinkie promise pic with this very same applelie pic.



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Also

unvote

I have made my point with spurge, my opinion hasn't changed much, but it is not my intention to lynch him...

so well, let's do this...

vote: Noctis

also I am officialy declaring a HoS on pezus and FoS j0 and mario. Even if they did go for switchclaims, these are most likely the ones to go for using the exploit.



Stefl1504 said:
hatmoza said:
that's an even ration, almost. And it's most likely very accurate since scum would have feared screwing up that ratio by lie claiming early. Perhaps we do have a liar among them, and if there is, it would have been a late claimer So HoS on the last three people who claimed.

Now early scum claimers are most likely to have been telling the truth about their claim. There was no need to lie and it's less suspicious to get your name out as early as possible.


hatmoza, what you forgot is, that next to double claiming into the same pony group, scum also could have switch claimed, or have done a combination of both, or a combination of switchclaiming, double claiming and truthfully claiming, looking at the fact that the claims are somehow balanced so far we can't really tell for sure if they did doubleclaim, but switchclaims we cannot see until we get the first scum.

This is all assuming that the mafia can talk during the day time though - how long has it been since we last let the mafia talk during the day? I think it's unlikely. For now, I'm going to assume that everyone is telling the truth about their claims, to avoid extra complications for themselves later.



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for supermario: he is too confident into the nameclaim exploit, so he might know that scum can easily exploit it (this goes beyond linkz (or others) suspicion of the exploitability of the exploit)

for j0: he is the one who has gathered the least townyness in my eyes from his ponypool.

for pezus: one of the most scummiest persons arround, also I think his argumentation for noctis not being on his FoS list is weak, considering that moreno is also a heavy lurker ussualy in early-game or if he considers his role to suck.



radishhead said:
Stefl1504 said:
hatmoza said:
that's an even ration, almost. And it's most likely very accurate since scum would have feared screwing up that ratio by lie claiming early. Perhaps we do have a liar among them, and if there is, it would have been a late claimer So HoS on the last three people who claimed.

Now early scum claimers are most likely to have been telling the truth about their claim. There was no need to lie and it's less suspicious to get your name out as early as possible.


hatmoza, what you forgot is, that next to double claiming into the same pony group, scum also could have switch claimed, or have done a combination of both, or a combination of switchclaiming, double claiming and truthfully claiming, looking at the fact that the claims are somehow balanced so far we can't really tell for sure if they did doubleclaim, but switchclaims we cannot see until we get the first scum.

This is all assuming that the mafia can talk during the day time though - how long has it been since we last let the mafia talk during the day? I think it's unlikely. For now, I'm going to assume that everyone is telling the truth about their claims, to avoid extra complications for themselves later.

^ Plus what difference would it make? they are still scum, they will jus be switching groups while serving the same purpose for us to exploit.

No, stefl's post didn't make sense to me. That serves no purpose... as far as I understand it now.



I am the black sheep     "of course I'm crazy, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong."-Robert Anton Wilson

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radishhead said:
Stefl1504 said:
hatmoza said:
that's an even ration, almost. And it's most likely very accurate since scum would have feared screwing up that ratio by lie claiming early. Perhaps we do have a liar among them, and if there is, it would have been a late claimer So HoS on the last three people who claimed.

Now early scum claimers are most likely to have been telling the truth about their claim. There was no need to lie and it's less suspicious to get your name out as early as possible.


hatmoza, what you forgot is, that next to double claiming into the same pony group, scum also could have switch claimed, or have done a combination of both, or a combination of switchclaiming, double claiming and truthfully claiming, looking at the fact that the claims are somehow balanced so far we can't really tell for sure if they did doubleclaim, but switchclaims we cannot see until we get the first scum.

This is all assuming that the mafia can talk during the day time though - how long has it been since we last let the mafia talk during the day? I think it's unlikely. For now, I'm going to assume that everyone is telling the truth about their claims, to avoid extra complications for themselves later.

They don't really need to be able to talk during the day, they just need one to go for a switchclaim first, and then the others followed, it could've even be incidentaly that they made a combination of the possibilities.



hatmoza said:
radishhead said:
Stefl1504 said:
hatmoza said:
that's an even ration, almost. And it's most likely very accurate since scum would have feared screwing up that ratio by lie claiming early. Perhaps we do have a liar among them, and if there is, it would have been a late claimer So HoS on the last three people who claimed.

Now early scum claimers are most likely to have been telling the truth about their claim. There was no need to lie and it's less suspicious to get your name out as early as possible.


hatmoza, what you forgot is, that next to double claiming into the same pony group, scum also could have switch claimed, or have done a combination of both, or a combination of switchclaiming, double claiming and truthfully claiming, looking at the fact that the claims are somehow balanced so far we can't really tell for sure if they did doubleclaim, but switchclaims we cannot see until we get the first scum.

This is all assuming that the mafia can talk during the day time though - how long has it been since we last let the mafia talk during the day? I think it's unlikely. For now, I'm going to assume that everyone is telling the truth about their claims, to avoid extra complications for themselves later.

^ Plus what difference would it make? they are still scum, they will jus be switching groups while serving the same purpose for us to exploit.

No, stefl's post didn't make sense to me. That serves no purpose... as far as I understand it now.

If they weren't able to organise which character swaps they did, the mafia would have to be among the last ones to character claim because they'd have to fill in the holes which their teammates changed round, I think? Honestly, the whole concept is starting to confuse me now :(



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I am still voting for Noctis because of his majorly defensive play when he came back from lurking. He has toned down a lot since then but unlike you I still find that suspicious. I'm waiting to see what else he comes up with before I unvote.



The problem with the switchclaim would be:

Scum X claims Pinky Pie, but is in reality Rarity, Scum Y claims Rarity, but is Pinky Pie in reality.

Scum X who claimed Pinky Pie, flips Rarity, there is still, there is still a scum inside the Rarity pool.

Now if we go for a combination of 4 scum, and all three methods:

Scum X claims Rarity and is in reality Rarity, Scum Y claims Rarity, but is Rainbow Dash in reality. Scum Z claims Rainbow Dash, but is in reality Twilight. Scum W claims Pinky Pie and is Pinky Pie.

^you can do the math that is is probably the neatest combination of scum fakeclaims/realclaims... and as you can see this actually only needs two scum to fakeclaim and be able to anticipate claims, and with less claims open to be made, such fakeclaims become even less risky.

There is still another possibility in my eyes that is way too unrealiable and speculative.



But wouldn't that potentially result in 5 raritys, making it obvious that two mafia are claiming rarity?



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