It will SURPASS it with ease. 5 Million will not be hard to achieve this holiday season.

Honestly, Kinect predictions are a lot harder to make thanks to MS's apparent reluctance to reveal its shipped numbers. That 19m at the end of Q1 this calendar year is the latest figure available. We have no idea whether it has kept up its sales over the past few months, sold absolutely nothing or something in between because, as you said, VGC is way off on its Kinect sales. VGC has ~16m for when MS claims to have shipped 19m.
What we do know is that it shipped ~1m in Q1 to get to its current 19m. Given how holiday-centric it is and how holidays always overflow a little into January, I'd say another 1.5m for Q2-Q3 combined is reasonable. That gives Kinect 3.5m to cross over the holiday quarter. I'm not entirely sure it can do it. I mean, with the 3DS XL + Mario combo, the PS3 price cut/redesign and the launch of the WiiU all having their first holidays, I just don't see how Kinect will have any room to be a big seller again this holiday. It should get very close regardless, tough.

Itll be much easier if MS drops it to $99