Thanks for sharing this. It does give a better perspective on how the new game will do!
I had no idea that sales for Brain Training 2 took such a hit in Europe and that Japanese sales actually rose for BT2. Seems that European and North American sales were affected by all the clones.

Those are good indicators to see how sales will (probably) spread out across regions.

@delio. No probs! :)

@underlined. Very true. Yet, a few are still unreleased, namely NSMB and Brain Training. Nintendogs has, that is true.

@bold. True, but only after 2006. I'm expecting that to happen after this holiday season boom for the 3DS. If that doesn't happen, then I'm afraid your last sentence may be right.

For the DS trend, here it is:

It's really amazing how in 2006, as of NSMB's launch (March in japan and june in the west) the DS sales became strong year-round like you say. I'm hoping august and holiday season 2012 will have the same effect for 3DS. As for Nintendogs, it was released for the DS in Apr to Oct of 2005, and Brain Age was launched in May 2005 in Japan and Apr 2006 in the West. They were crucial in the success of the DS, but the trend above shows NSMB, as the clear heavy-hitter for DS.

the 3DS has close to zero chances of outselling the DS
that said, i think the 100m mark is plausible, big names are still to come, new Zelda, DK, another 3D Mario(very likely), Smash bros., Pokemon......and maybe some others that we even dont know....

I'm curious to know why.

Dolph
its already been said but here are few reasons

- 3D is not very accesible
- Design choices make it look like an enhanced DS, and not a new product
- Oversaturated market
- Economic crysis
- Developments are more expensive and devs avoid risks
- More expensive

Ninpie
- 3D is difficult to get into, most people get their eyes hurt the first time they watch the 3D, and they tend to avoid it
- Vita is doing bad partly because of that also
- In EU the crysis is stronger now, and last year in Japan when it was launched
- The 3ds is more expensive than the DS

OK?

The app itself isn't the important thing. The effect that Pokédex 3D Pro, Dream Radar (which isn't so much an app as a mini-game), and the aforementioned 3DS-exclusive functions have together is making it clear that the best console to play B2/W2 on is the 3DS. We don't have to discuss "how big" an effect these things together will have on 3DS hardware sales: I just pointed out that they received an 18% boost the week of B2/W2's release in Japan.

DS received a larger boost percentage-wise, but in actuality DS hardware sales only increased by about 700 units over the previous week, while 3DS hardware sales increased by about 11,000 units, in spite of the recent XL announcement. Again, if it weren't for the release of Pokémon that week, 3DS sales likely would have dropped -- and they were sustained through the next week, likely in part due to the strong release of Culdcept, but perhaps more likely due to the continued strong sales (over 400k) of Black and White 2.

I propose that 3DS hardware will receive at LEAST a 25% boost in America and Europe the week of B2/W2's release in those regions. It's not anywhere near the enormous boost the DS received from the release of Black and White, but this isn't Black and White.

Point is, don't rush the 3DS Pokémon games. They'll come. They don't have to come in the console's first year. Check it out: the GBA launched in America in '01, Crystal came out about a month later, Ruby and Sapphire came out in '03. The DS launched in '04, Emerald came out in '05, Diamond and Pearl came out in '07. What's happening here in 2012 is business as usual for GameFreak.

*Facepalm*

Yeah, the DS sold more because it was cheaper than the GBA.

If you said that the 3DS may sell less because the market is shrinking (some people prefer to play on their smartphones or tablets), that would be reasonable.

Did you state that Vita is doing bad because of 3D or something else?  Vita doesn't have 3D