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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo Q1 - $221m loss on of revenue $1.08bn. Shipments: 1.86m 3DS, 710k Wii, 540k DS

sethnintendo on 23 July 2012
kowenicki said:
Mr Khan said:
Troll_Whisperer said:
Isn't the 3DS forecast too optimistic? They must be expecting the XL/2D Mario combination to have a huge impact.

If so, then they would have been predicting too far ahead. 2D Mario is clearly Q3/fiscal Q2

The big problem here is that they pegged their predictions on the Japanese Treasury's confidence that they could reverse deflation, which was only a flash in the pan. Plus i'm not sure if the 3DS has actually hit profitability yet (i think their target for that was fiscal Q2, specifically next month), so we could be in for more bad news.

I think thats a certainty.  Iwata has already said they arent porfitable yet, so this Q1 (and prob Q2) is a write off.  The WiiU launch has to be a very good one or they wont be profitable for the year.  I think its that simple.

Depends on what Nintendo prices the Wii U.  If they decide to take a loss on each system sold then it wouldn't matter how many Wii Us were sold considering it would only add to the losses.  Nintendo has to ride the 3DS for now.   I highly doubt they will price their system where they are losing a lot per system sold.  If anything they would take a 25-75 dollar loss if they priced it at 300.  So in terms of profitability they need to make sure the 3DS wrecks shop since the 3DS will be profitable soon.



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sethnintendo on 23 July 2012
kowenicki said:
NintendoPie said:

I remember a report saying they'll get profitability in September. Hopefully that means the holiday month will really help them out.

But that was probably based on nintendo estimations from their last financials.  Those estimations are off, the currency one is way off.


I still don't realize why the yen is so high.  I typed in why is the yen so strong and only got a few vague reasons. 



Kenology on 23 July 2012

@kowen:

In your assessment, which of the three companies of interest (MS, Sony, Nintendo) are in the best to worst shape financially?



Kenology on 23 July 2012

I'm not one to really dig into these financial statements, so I just leave it to you all to decipher them for me. You do a lot of these types of threads so I was just interested in your opinion.



Troll_Whisperer on 23 July 2012
Mr Khan said:
Troll_Whisperer said:
Isn't the 3DS forecast too optimistic? They must be expecting the XL/2D Mario combination to have a huge impact.

If so, then they would have been predicting too far ahead. 2D Mario is clearly Q3/fiscal Q2

The big problem here is that they pegged their predictions on the Japanese Treasury's confidence that they could reverse deflation, which was only a flash in the pan. Plus i'm not sure if the 3DS has actually hit profitability yet (i think their target for that was fiscal Q2, specifically next month), so we could be in for more bad news.

I was talking about sales only. I meant the 18.5m forecast.



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gumby_trucker on 23 July 2012
kowenicki said:
Kenology said:
@kowen:

In your assessment, which of the three companies of interest (MS, Sony, Nintendo) are in the best to worst shape financially?


Depends on your measure.

But by any measure you want Sony is by far the weakest and in some trouble, balance sheet is weak and profitability is terrible. 

Nintendo still has a good balance sheet but profitability is suspect right now and it is very narrow in its business interests.

Microsoft has a strong balance sheet, is very profitable and is a very diverse business these days. 

 

You?

I've tried reading the original documents and the stated losses don't add up to anything near 265 billion yen.

Loss over currency exchange is clearly stated to be 27.7 billion yen, and Net Loss (after tax returns) is in the 43 billion yen area.

Going over the entire report I found two very large gaps that I didn't understand - one coming from investments vs. return on investment (page 12 - investing activities - short term and long term investment securities) and another from NoA (page 14 item 4). These two amounts dwarf operating losses. Aren't they the real reason for the huge difference from last year? 

edit: Another thing - in the data you provided it says most of the decline in assets happened between March and September of 2011 and not during Q4.

31/3/2011 - 1,634,297.00

30/9/2011 - 1,377,237.00

31/3/2012 - 1,368,401.00

(sorry for all the questions - this is turning out to be interesting  )



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ethomaz on 23 July 2012

Tagged.



NintendoPie on 23 July 2012
kowenicki said:

But that was probably based on nintendo estimations from their last financials.  Those estimations are off, the currency one is way off.

What threw them off?



NintendoPie on 23 July 2012
kowenicki said:
NintendoPie said:
kowenicki said:

But that was probably based on nintendo estimations from their last financials.  Those estimations are off, the currency one is way off.

What threw them off?


They were unrealistic to begin with.  Ninty and Sony had a very very optinistic view on the yen/ero.  No idea where they go them from, not a financial person on the planet saw them as realistic and said so at the time.

But why is the Yen so high? What made it do this?



NintendoPie on 23 July 2012
pezus said:
Tagged. So what do we expect from Wii? 500k shipped or less? I expect them to miss their 3DS prediction by quite a bit for the next year. I don't see the XL having such a dramatic effect. Mario will help but not enough.

I think you're under-estimating the XL. It's what many, many people have wanted and Mario always pumps up sales.