superchunk said:
1) I was not referring to now but to late 2013 based on the very fast increase in mobile hardware technology. By the time PS4/neXtBox launch there will be phone/tablets that are close enough to them to run scaled down games. With a year to 18mos of their launch they will be matched by these same devices. Next year we'll see games that are equal in nearly all ways to vitaPs360 and those games will continue to launch after next-gen is fully out there. All it takes is a few Android/GoogleTV/iOS set-top boxes with dedicated controls to make 3rd parties throw games at them. The massive interest in this device proves to publishers there is interest. 2) Networks get better every day as does the compression technology OnLive and others use. There's a reason Sony just bought Gaikai. Exclusives have nothing to do with this topic. People will buy Ms/Sony/Nintendo for their exclusives, sure, but there are a very large number of people who don't care as much as only play COD or some other set of 3rd party games. In fact, I'd wager that they are a larger set of consumers. Especially the casuals. 3)This means the whole idea "but it haz no controllerz... " is pointless. (sorry I hear it all the time) So as these set-top boxes become more prelavent as Android and iOS matures, you'll see a lot of $99 or $199 boxes for TVs that will easily equal anything in this or next-gen PLUS all the smart OS features users want. So game centric devices like this will not be as important. |
I'll interject my 2 cents here, if I may.
1) This is true, but has two majors cons. Cost to the consumer and stability to the developer _and_ consumer. As a consumer, the costs can be alot more, either over time via 2 year lock in contracts (thus upgrades only happen every 2-3 years) or having to spend upwards of $499 for a non-contract phone. As a developer, and to an extent as a consumer, the target hardware is constantly moving. As a developer, which hardware to you target? This years phones or last years phones? You buy a phone and within the year it likely will see no OS upgrades (android) and will likely not be able to handle the next years top games. Thus you might have to wait a year to be able to play the games you want, and get locked into another 2 year contract or pay another $499. You can see why alot of people might be excited (developers _and_ consumers) for something that could potentially stabalize development targets and consumer costs. Even a year upgrade path is ok if the cost of buying the next year kit is only $99.
2) Every day is a bit of a stretch. I have been stuck at my 3.5mbit line for some time with no good upgrade path that does not cost more. Most carriers tend not to just randomly upgrade your bandwidth every year just because. You will always have to be on the lookout for upgrades, sidegrades, and cost reductions to new plans. The average bandwidth accross suburbia will not reach OnLive needs for quite some time. As for Gaikai. That will likely take a few years to fully develop or at the very least will be niche playstation plus stuff that won't reach anywhere near the majority of PSN accounts. You are right though that it is inevitable that eventually the mass market for OnLive and Gakai will appear sooner rather than later, just not within the year. More likely is a few years off.
3) It's all relative to the moment at hand. In the future we may indeed see more set top boxes (or inbuilt TV) that provide these same exact features (minus the controller? or maybe not). That doesn't really negate that come march 2013 this may be first to mass market for cheap. We've been hearing about android/iOS set top boxes for a few years now and I have seen none viable yet. As well as the fact that brand can go along way. OUYA may just pull the wind out of the sails of all those would be game enabled set top boxes.
A warrior keeps death on the mind from the moment of their first breath to the moment of their last.
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