You only have to look at NPD to see that the 360 is selling 160k a month, or around 40k a week. It's also down YoY 37% overall, and down around 35% YoY in America this past month. Assuming a price cut at some point this year, it'll likely only be down 15-20% next year, or 30-35k a week.The WiiU should easily sell on average 70k a week, so yes.

People seem to be forgetting that the 360 is selling worse now than the Wii was this time last year, so next year the 360 will be selling around Wii-level; not even a price cut can sustain sales.

It would be really disappointing for Nintendo if it didn't happen =/

I voted yes. I think it will. I don't think the Wii-U will be a runaway success, but I believe it will outsell a 7 year old console with an already-high user base.