I find in the games here, it's best to wait till day 3 to start really making some hypothesis to aid town. Otherwise, both town and scum are on you. I think days 1 & 2 here should be used to gain trust, feel the turf, and once that's done you can start posting things that are a little more complex.
In my MS game, the example of that would be the player Vis challenging the Cop Claim. All town disagreed with it, and he was wrong, but he could have been right. Maybe the comparison is different with my theory which involved flavor, factions and the suspicion of insider knowledge, but the complexity is the same.