You guys are posting way too fast. I've been skipping a lot of material.
Doing a thorough re-read now while at work, so it'll be every time I have a free moment. Just a couple of thoughts though.
I'm inclined to believe that Baal is mafia. One of his first posts is a variety of the yes/no speculation that I do so dislike. Generally it follows the form of "I'm thinking that X was scummy, But Y, so maybe that means he's town"
I take those kinds of posts as "put attention on this player, but I'm staying out of this".
Also, Rol's questioning him about the cult, Baal replied "I think they would make it difficult for us to find them". This is a classic maneuver for mafia to incite panic and create suspicion on people who likely do not already have any. Mafia also like to believe that there is a cult, because it helps them act more town-like; ie, as long as they can hunt something, they are able to look more like a townie.
Lastly, I believe Hatmoza gave spurge's role to someone else (not me, mind you) and made him an alarmist. It's likely that spurge was a mafia, methinks.