Very impressive theory, imo.

But I think there maybe a bit more to it that that, simply because I think spurge was not switched to town role. I think so because when RY was to be modkilled, hat was trying for a replacement so as to not unbalance the game. Unfortunately he was unsuccessful, and here we are with two townies dead. If spurge was mafia he would have tried getting a replacement on their side.

Or else, just modkill anyway, since it was one death. I don't think there was any reason to change the roles, it just doesn't seem possible.
Also remember that even if he DID change the roles, he could have also changed the character's name.

Anyway, before I continue, I'll lay out my theory.

So, The first thing I noticed was from the protagonist discussion. In fact, most of the roles we've seen so far, are all side-characters, lending credence to the idea that side-characters = town, and main characters would be mafia.

However, I then noticed that almost all claims were female. This makes sense from the above rule because females are usually relegated to the side roles and rarely are there female leads.

I believe that townies are generally going to be female, and mafia are generally going to be male. This is not to say that all females are town or all males are mafia. However, the exception I see would be luigi. I believe, as I said earlier, that spurge was mafia and switched out. It also makes sense for Alucard being the miller.

This would imply, as I've already theorized, that ninpie is very likely to be mafia. He came out very quickly with his role for almost no reason after a first day of being heavily questioned. I believe he was coerced into claiming his role as a town one by his mafia peers.

This would also imply that our dear stefl is mafia. He claimed kiryu. I also think his claim is somewhat dubious. In the game, he is a bodyguard of his 'godfather' in backstory.

Pac-man is possibly a third party.

Tails is really the only thing that stands out, but for a long time everyone thought he was a girl, kinda like birdo (whom we may also see). So I'm not sure.

I do know though, that Hat is a letcher, so I think will likely be using girls as the heroines of the game.

Spurg switched accounts with Prof too it seems O_o

Ok lets assume your theory is right. How does it make sense that Alucard is the miller (gay vampire joke?)

Well me thinks Poison from SF is more fitting to that role >_>

T________T