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Forums - Sales Discussion - Prediction: NSMB2 will outsell the top 10 PSV games shown off at E3 2012 combined

 

Will this prediction become true?

Yes, definitely. 244 53.39%
 
Probably. 103 22.54%
 
Maybe. Maybe not. 42 9.19%
 
Unlikely. 33 7.22%
 
Impossible. 35 7.66%
 
Total:457
milkyjoe on 11 May 2012
Sensei said:
If Capcom announces a Monster Hunter Vita, then your prediction is wrong. :D

TGS is surely the more likely home for the unlikely MH Vita annoucement.



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daveJ on 11 May 2012

Count me on the side
top 10 vita games combined outselling NSMB2.
Easy bet



All bow to me the VGChartz current reigning 3DS prediction champion 

 Bet with tbone51: Pokeon X & pokemon Y will not sell more than 8 million in 2013

 jarrod said:The Xbox360 or ps3 will not sell more than 75million units

July 2009 daveJ said: True the wii has a large lead now but by 2017 the most likely result will be 1. ps3 2. xbox360 3. wii <-- wii's successor launched in 2011 effectively killing sales of the wii

 2009 daveJ said: The wii will not break the 50% marketshare barrier it will go below the 40% marketshare barrier though in the future. VGChartz members: Impossible, youre an idiot that knows nothing about sales

Pineapple on 11 May 2012

While it seems ridiculously unlikely at first, it's actually quite possible.

Let's say that all the 10 Vita games shown at E3 launch in 2013, for simplicity's sake. If 2013 managed to match the PsP's best year for game releases - in terms of sales - that would mean 23.37 million for the top 10 best selling games . That's for 2006, and I don't think any of the other years match that.

Considering that the Vita is looking to be far less successful than the PsP, managing that is quite unlikely. It's also unlikely that all the games will be shown off at E3. But even if the Vita somehow managed to manage the PsP's best, 23.4 million is by no means impossible to reach for NSMB2.

This is a really nice prediction thread, because it hinges on several things. One of the best I've seen on here in a while. Personally, I'd give it somewhere around an 80% chance of happening.



Pineapple on 11 May 2012
pezus said:
Pineapple said:

While it seems ridiculously unlikely at first, it's actually quite possible.

Let's say that all the 10 Vita games shown at E3 launch in 2013, for simplicity's sake. If 2013 managed to match the PsP's best year for game releases - in terms of sales - that would mean 23.37 million for the top 10 best selling games . That's for 2006, and I don't think any of the other years match that.

Considering that the Vita is looking to be far less successful than the PsP, managing that is quite unlikely. It's also unlikely that all the games will be shown off at E3. But even if the Vita somehow managed to manage the PsP's best, 23.4 million is by no means impossible to reach for NSMB2.

This is a really nice prediction thread, because it hinges on several things. One of the best I've seen on here in a while. Personally, I'd give it somewhere around an 80% chance of happening.

The problem is that he's talking about lifetime sales, not sales in 2013 only.

I'm aware of that. The sales are for games released in 2006, not just the sales in 2006.



logic56 on 11 May 2012
RolStoppable said:

It's time for a prediction thread. Let's start with an obligatory one:

Right after Sony's press conference, many Sony fans will proclaim that Sony just owned the 3DS with their Vita lineup despite everyone knowing that New Super Mario Bros. 2 will be shown off the next day.

Now for the actual prediction this thread is about:

New Super Mario Bros. 2 will outsell the top 10 PSV games shown off at E3 2012 combined. Lifetime.

The 10 PSV games have yet to be determined, of course. Also, it has to be seen if Sony can even show off ten PSV games, because rumor has it that the PSV is widely perceived as a handheld that is a waste of everybody's time.

now think fast



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Pineapple on 11 May 2012
pezus said:
Pineapple said:
pezus said:
Pineapple said:

While it seems ridiculously unlikely at first, it's actually quite possible.

Let's say that all the 10 Vita games shown at E3 launch in 2013, for simplicity's sake. If 2013 managed to match the PsP's best year for game releases - in terms of sales - that would mean 23.37 million for the top 10 best selling games . That's for 2006, and I don't think any of the other years match that.

Considering that the Vita is looking to be far less successful than the PsP, managing that is quite unlikely. It's also unlikely that all the games will be shown off at E3. But even if the Vita somehow managed to manage the PsP's best, 23.4 million is by no means impossible to reach for NSMB2.

This is a really nice prediction thread, because it hinges on several things. One of the best I've seen on here in a while. Personally, I'd give it somewhere around an 80% chance of happening.

The problem is that he's talking about lifetime sales, not sales in 2013 only.

I'm aware of that. The sales are for games released in 2006, not just the sales in 2006.

Ah, yes. But no one has answered my CoD question. What if Activision announce all the next CoD games will come to Vita, does that count?

They won't. Activision almost definitely doesn't have plans for multiple future CoD games. Additionally, announcing several sequels is a relatively retarded move. They might announce that they're going to support Vita with Call of Duties (or something to that extent, but even that is unlikely) but that isn't actually announcing the games.



WiiBox3 on 11 May 2012
pezus said:
RolStoppable said:
radishhead said:
Probably not.

CoD - 5m
GTA - 5m
Bioshock - 1m
Assassin's Creed - 2m
A LBP (or something) - 1.5m
Whatever other games Sony fans play - I'm sure they'll add up to high numbers - 5 x 500k = 2.5m

Makes 17m. I am afraid that's too low.

You forgot the next 5 CoD games.


Do the portable CoD games sell well?



Sal.Paradise on 11 May 2012
pezus said:
RolStoppable said:
radishhead said:

The heck? People still buy that game? o.o

Of course. Super Mario Bros. is Nintendo's biggest and most reliable IP. Maybe it's because of your age and Nintendo putting the series on hiatus for over 15 years that you don't know how big it really is. It isn't just a killer application. It's the mother of all killer applications.

Rovio would like to disagree!

Miyamato agrees, he apparently wishes he made Angry Birds



Pineapple on 11 May 2012
WiiBox3 said:
pezus said:
RolStoppable said:
radishhead said:
Probably not.

CoD - 5m
GTA - 5m
Bioshock - 1m
Assassin's Creed - 2m
A LBP (or something) - 1.5m
Whatever other games Sony fans play - I'm sure they'll add up to high numbers - 5 x 500k = 2.5m

Makes 17m. I am afraid that's too low.

You forgot the next 5 CoD games.


Do the portable CoD games sell well?

It depends on what you mean by well. Activision never released any CoD games on the PsP, except for Call of Duty: Roads to Victory, but it was released before Modern Warfare (and the Call of Duty craze) started. It ended up selling 2 million, which made it the 5th best selling Call of Duty up to that point.

In other words, we don't really know. The DS games sold bad (all at <1 million), but we haven't had a Call of Duty in a modern setting on a Playstation handheld yet. Some believe it will sell like the console ones, but I'm rather sceptical about that.



superchunk on 11 May 2012

I don't see why any of you are talking about COD. At best any COD port... and that's exactly what it would be an lower-end port... would maybe break 1m lifetime. People that buy this and similar games are core gamers. They won't choose their portable machine over their console to buy it on and it certainly wont' be a system selling game.

A game to cause major selling on PSV must be unique to PSV only and far closer to the mass market than an generic FPS. LBP has a far higher chance at that, however, so far the versions of LBP have been way too similar to be considered anything more than slight enhancements over the previous version.

PSV needs a big exclusive game like Monster Hunter for the most part has been on the PSP. But with 3DS getting that, idk if its going to happen. Maybe Sony will follow their current path with copying MKart and SSB and create a clone of Pokemon.