This ^

I don't think they will or should announce a new console, until it is a few months from launch.  Look at how the rumors on the new 3DS hurt sales when the North America launch of the DSXL.  Why buy something that is going to be 'old gen' a few months (on in this case, about a year) later?

I think it will also depend on how well the rumored X360/Kinect at $99 will sell. (And those saying it's a bad value - I agree - but the same with leasing a car (in most cases) and plenty of people lease cars.))

These sounds like test/dev kits, and I just hope the 16 core CPU rumors are true.  I would really like to see a huge jump in the next gen.

I'd think so. But, it would require starting ramp up for mass production soon. Most components are built by other larger companies and then the chinese place puts it all together. That's the final part and the part that would be being tested at this stage... the actual form factor and cooling.

Foxconn doesn't just assemble.  They design, manufacture, and assemble on-site.  This is why people use them, and why they are so cheap.  Some components like HDDs might be shipped in but the vast majority of components are manufactured and assembled locally.

Flextronics is similar.

Test kits...probably. Announcement doubtful. (as it would kill sales).
If Microsoft was coming out with a new console by the holidays, there would have even a retail leak somewhere.

Mike from Morgahnntown

Could this be part of MS's recent losses?

I may be unpopular for saying this, but I think all this discussion is less to do with will it happen, and more to do with gamers needing this to happen. The contempt is rising, and the bile is beginning to boil. I just doubt that core gamers will tolerate another year or more of coasting. The hardware is terribly outdated, the lineup mediocre, and there has been no serious effort on the part of Microsoft for years to enhance the core gaming experience. The only reason at this point that would be acceptable is their being side tracked on new console development. I am not saying that the core players will be disappointed. I am saying they would be displeased, and somewhat irked. Nobody wants to put up with another year of Microsoft screwing around without doing anything praise worthy.

What I am saying isn't that Microsoft is or is not. What I am saying is they better do it otherwise they are going to face a holy shit storm from players who have had enough. A new dashboard update, and new media partners. Just isn't going to do it anymore. Neither is scraping by on less then a handful of core exclusives. They are really close to getting called out on their shit, because a new console is the only real justification for this achingly long slide they have been on for two years.

I suppose the point is the desperation is starting to strangle, and many are probably at the end of their rope. Just waiting for a turn around in fortunes. They dare to still keep hope, but if they get another plate of slop, and are told to like it. They are liable to slap it back in the face of Microsoft. Hope doesn't spring eternal, but enmity does spring from the ashes of hope. Anyway the point stands it isn't so much a question of if as much as it is a question of must. Microsoft needs to unveil a new console or a lot of people will be supremely pissed.