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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Sean Malstrom: Alas, Microsoft-Why Microsoft will leave the console market

rocketpig said:
I just finished reading every line of the "article" (I had scanned it previously)... The guy just doesn't get it.

He actually believes that this battle is over video games. MS is simply using gaming as a vehicle for a much bigger market... Living room domination. It was the cheapest and easiest vehicle they could find to do so. And it already has an established market to cleverly hide itself under (unlike, say, the AppleTV, where it's an entirely new device and market, forcing people to change the way they think and buy products). He blathers on and on about MS and hardware without even realizing that the Xbox is hiding MS's entry into a new software market.

In short, Malstrom is an idiot who can't see past his own nose.

No. This "war" IS over videogames. MS may be trying to make 360 fight more than one war, but the success of XBox is 100% dependant on videogames.

If XBox360 is the "easy and cheap way" to do ANYTHING, I'd like to know about it. It certainly isn't an easy and cheap way to establish "living room domination." In fact, Apple's road to "living room domination" appears to be paved with money.

Convergence, as XBox seems to view it, is not going to happen. You have it exactly backwards above: XBox is the machine trying to change consumer behavior. Apple TV asks people to hook up a dedicated music and video playing device to their TVs (in the same fashion as a DVD-player), continue to organize their media files from their computer (as has been established consumer behavior post-Napster--and established for 100 million iPod owners), continue to use iTunes and iTunes store, etc., for $250. XBox 360 asks people to pay $480 for the only model even capable of "living room domination" specifications-wise, to organize their media from their TV, without an established digital super-store, and then advertises itself as a gaming machine. You tell me what's going to succeed?

Just because MSs plan is an even bigger convoluted mess than what Malstrom describes it as, doesn't make him an idiot.



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

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Erik Aston said:

No. This "war" IS over videogames. MS may be trying to make 360 fight more than one war, but the success of XBox is 100% dependant on videogames.

If XBox360 is the "easy and cheap way" to do ANYTHING, I'd like to know about it. It certainly isn't an easy and cheap way to establish "living room domination." In fact, Apple's road to "living room domination" appears to be paved with money.

Convergence, as XBox seems to view it, is not going to happen. You have it exactly backwards above: XBox is the machine trying to change consumer behavior. Apple TV asks people to hook up a dedicated music and video playing device to their TVs (in the same fashion as a DVD-player), continue to organize their media files from their computer (as has been established consumer behavior post-Napster--and established for 100 million iPod owners), continue to use iTunes and iTunes store, etc., for $250. XBox 360 asks people to pay $480 for the only model even capable of "living room domination" specifications-wise, to organize their media from their TV, without an established digital super-store, and then advertises itself as a gaming machine. You tell me what's going to succeed?

Just because MSs plan is an even bigger convoluted mess than what Malstrom describes it as, doesn't make him an idiot.


It is dependant on video games. I said as much in my first post. If MS doesn't succeed on that level, the battle is over before it began. But it's not the longterm battle MS is fighting, and it's not the one that has billions of dollars wrapped in a bow waiting for someone to snatch it.

It's "cheap" because the 360, by itself, has the potential to make money on video games only. And it has an already-established market and fanbase to tap into. Whereas the Apple model is to forge an entirely new path and create an entirely new market. We'll see who has the right philosophy, but we won't know definitively for a long time. Both have their plusses and faults, I won't argue that. This is a very new thing for consumers and I'm very interested to see how it all pans out.

You mention $480, obviously referring to the Elite. While you're right that this is the "real" model people will want if they buy into MS's plans, the 20GB model will work for many people out there. It's not optimal, but it's an alternative. I think MS expects this generation to test the waters to find out how consumers respond to this new delivery system. With the tight integration in Vista and Media Center, the 360 has a lot of potential to do new and interesting things. The real question is whether anyone will use it to the best of its abilities. The AppleTV is $300 for a dedicated video device; for $100 more, you get the 360 with the ability to play games and DVDs. I would definitely call the 360 the "cheaper" route to living room content delivery.

And I still stand by my statement that Malstrom is an idiot. He's too mired in the present to realize where companies like MS, Sony, and Apple plan to be in 10 years. They're looking waaaay down the road and while losing money today is important, not giving up and walking away from the future is even more important.




Or check out my new webcomic: http://selfcentent.com/

Read some of Malstrom's other stuff. He knows whats going on. He predicted all this Wii domination, and correctly described the exact reasons for it. And I can't find which one, but one of his articles talked about 25 years of failed "convergent consoles." Which is exactly what you're talking about with this "living room domination." Isn't it telling that while you say XBox360, PS3 and Apple TV are all squaring off for "living room domination," Apple TV and Wii are both tiny, quiet, unassuming devices. They are not designed to "dominate," they are designed to "supplement." They are part of your living room, not asking you to throw out the devices you are already using and the things you are already doing. Sony and MS want you to do everything from their one box, even though you can already do 80% of what those boxes do with the ones you already have. You say MS, Sony and Apple are all looking 10 years down the road, but Apple and Nintendo are creating new marketspace and rolling in money right now. And thing is, you CAN'T look 10 years down the road. MS couldn't have known when they were launching the original XBox, that in 5 years Apple would have software installed on tens of million of Windows-running PCs, which they would be using to become the world's largest retailler of music, while also selling 50 or 60 million portable devices to play the music every year. If MS had known all that was possible, they would have done it themselves. A company looking 10 years down the road is waiting for the market to come to them, instead of creating the market, and they are bound to get left in the dust. Apple has 100 million people using iPods and iTunes, which may rise to 200 or 250 million within 2 years, who can buy Apple TV if they want to supplement it, which will merely add to already awesome profits. Microsoft has 6 million people using XBLive, which may grow to 60 million in 5 years if they can, uh... Wait, they've got to win in an existing market against the only two companies to ever show long-term sustained success in it? With a type of product which has shown a sales ceiling of 110 million through 6 years, at which point it starts being replaced? And only then will they start making money? Yeah, this will be some great "war." Apple must be shaking in their boots. And how about Nintendo? They really worried because they'll never be able to "dominate the living room" with Wii and DS?



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

Eric,

Great comments as usual!

You have a profitable digital music business with 100 million users and almost universal appeal from a company that is mainly known for its consumer products and has largely failed with business customers.

And you have a money bleeding digital gaming business with 30 million users and a double limited potential audience (the hardcore part of the traditional video gamer audience) from a company that is mainly known for its business products and has failed with most of the consumer products it has developed of the last 2 decades.

Now each of these businesses is going to be used to sell movies and TV shows in the living room. Who will win? Not very hard to call. I still think MS should stop developing consumer devices if the Entertainment & Devices division does not make at least $500 million to $1 billion profit in 2009 or 2010 (which would be sustainable given $6 billion losses but won't happen) and concentrate on business customers.

auroragb,
When I said "subsidies" I was not talking about the fact that Microsoft may hand out some extra cash to key developers. I was looking at the whole Xbox operation. If the 360 had to sell at a sustainable price (with small losses in the first year and growing gains in the following 4 years) that would be like $600, not $400. Then we wouldn't look at 10 million owners right now, but more like 3 or 4 million. And the Xbox 1, at a reasonable price, would not have sold 24 million units, but rather below 10 million units. All those additional users and in turn the additional software that was sold on them were subsidised through the $6 billion Microsoft was willing to lose on the XBox.


Hardcore gaming is a bubble economy blown up by Microsoft's $7 $6 billion losses.

OK, Malstrom, when will it happen?



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


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lol, nice necro bumping for a nearly 3 years old thread.



ArkZero said:
lol, nice necro bumping for a nearly 3 years old thread.

Heh, Malstrom's bull is like a cognac, it needs years of ageing to develop its full flavour

 



Stwike him, Centuwion. Stwike him vewy wuffly! (Pontius Pilate, "Life of Brian")
A fart without stink is like a sky without stars.
TGS, Third Grade Shooter: brand new genre invented by Kevin Butler exclusively for Natal WiiToo Kinect. PEW! PEW-PEW-PEW! 
 


NightStalker said:

A very interesting read. Now let's see if it comes true.

Oh the suspense is  killing me...

Considering the position that Microsoft has in North America, if it did drop out, I see it being nearly on par with what happened with Atari.  When Atari posted record profits and surprised everyone with the news, that marked the Crash of the early 1980s.  Anyone think Microsoft can leave the videogame market and something like this not happen?  Do people expect that somehow Sony is going to hang around also?  We could end up with things left just being Nintendo.



RolStoppable said:
Malstrom said it will either happen after this gen or the next one. Who knows, maybe the Nextbox becomes a bigger failure than the first Xbox and loses billions. Nobody would have thought that Sony could mess up so bad after two fantastic gens either.


same can be said about N64 and we all know how that worked out! (in the long run)



Huya said:
RolStoppable said:
Malstrom said it will either happen after this gen or the next one. Who knows, maybe the Nextbox becomes a bigger failure than the first Xbox and loses billions. Nobody would have thought that Sony could mess up so bad after two fantastic gens either.


same can be said about N64 and we all know how that worked out! (in the long run)

Yea...Wii hits 70 million and Rareware is making avatar clothes.



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."