I think this will be the gamecube repeated. The hardcore nintendo fans will always buy nintendo but they are around the 25 - 30 million mark. The casual gamers are a fickle bunch and they will flock to whatever is popular at the time. It seems like they will flock to apple or smart phones for their casual gaming this time round.

If you look back at e3 2011, nintendo had a terrible e3. For the 1st time ever they made launching a new console boring and confusing. The hardcore gamers were confused and annoyed at the announcement and the casuals couldn't care less. The wii u looks too much like the wii and the tablet fad is years old with apple reigning dominance in that market.

It is going to be tough for Nintendo but they will always have their 25 - 30 million oldschool fans.

Making it as a stand alone “pad” would just add to the cost and damage their handheld space. Adding cost will limit the user base and Nintendo wants to cater(sp?) to the widest audience possible

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: WiiU will reach 40m at the very least...

1. True Ninteno fanboys don't make a sustainable audience, we're talking of the average folk here. Besides, Sony communicates little on Move and still places core gaming first. NIntendo did exactly the contrary, but as I said, I have to give them credit for their efforts (Xenoblade, Fire Emblem Awakening). Also, I don't think people remember the Sixaxis or care about the company losing money as long as they're getting the best games. On the contrary, a manufacturer accumulating money while doing nothing to address gamers is bound to rouse anger : that's what Nintendo did. I'm sure true Nintendo fans don't mind, but all the others do.

2. "PS3 selling more software than the Wii is a lie" > Global weekly http://www.vgchartz.com/weekly/40986/Global/ and yearly http://www.vgchartz.com/yearly/2012/Global/ (PS3 currently sells 50% more software than Wii in 2012)

What are you basing that off?

I'm basing that on that next gen will sell a total of around 300 million consoles (give or take 30m units ^^), and with that numbers Nintendo CAN'T sell anything less than 40m, since that would be about 10% of the market (13.3% to be more precise I think - I've never been good with math) - and they haven't seen that bad numbers since the GC days... I think N64 had around 20% market share??

The speculation of 300 million consoles sold is based on the fact that since the SNES days (or the 4th console generation) and additional 50 m consoles has been sold for each generation:

4th: ~100m consoles sold

5th:~150m

6th: ~200m

7th: are heading towards ~250m consoles sold.

Therefore I assume the next gen will sell about 300m, and Nintendo should at the very least get 10% of the market share.

EDIT: That's of course if nothing drastic change, like iPads getting used like console, rendering them obsolite...

Nintendo absolutely does NOT have next gen locked up. I think history has shown that ANYTHING can happen. Everyone thought the DS would fail. Everyone thought the Wii would fail and that the Ps3 would run away with it. Then everyone thought the Wii would sell more than the PS2. Nobody thought the Playstation would amount to anything, or that Sega would leave the console business. No one thought the NES would be successful, and thought it would die a horrible death at the hands of the superior gaming centric computers. All those assumptions were way off.

So I'm gonna be upfront and say I have no idea what's going to happen next gen. Nintendo's Wii U could find PS2 success, or it would regress and end up like the N64. We just don't know. It all depends on a number of factors - how much and how long Nintendo decides to support it, third party support, the marketing, price, the types of games released, etc.

I actually think the Wii U has a chance to be MORE successful than its predecessor, similar to how the PS2 was to the Playstation, but a number of things will need to go right for Nintendo. While the console will be launching with an instant advantage as it will be the first out of the gate, that is by no means a guarantee of a safe lead, as the Xbox 360 showed. So what does Nintendo need to do, and what needs to go right?

For one, third parties will need to be completely on board with their support, which for now looks like they could be. It absolutely CANNOT be a repeat of the piss poor Wii support, where third parties froze out the Wii late in its life along with Nintendo's own drought of games. Also, Nintendo needs to be careful to not limit themselves to the niche core type games and continue making games for the expanded audience that helped make Wii such a hit. And this doesn't just mean sequels to Wii Sports, Wii Play, Wii Fit, but entirely NEW franchises and indeed, genres, that follow in the same spirit of those mentioned games and get non-gamers, as well as ex-gamers, playing it. Vitality Sensor is an example of this, that could very well catch lightning in a bottle.

They also need to take online more seriously this time. And they need to avoid long droughts. They also must use their controller to its full potential, and make several games that take full use of its functions, unlike the Wii - after all, that is going to be the big differenciating feature. They also need a reasonable price, especially if its power isn't going to be much better than the current HD consoles. If all or most of these don't occur, I fear the Wii U could end up with N64 like success. but on the flip side, if most of theses DO occur, then the sky's the limit for Wii U.

Now that they've finally ditched the TEV Unit from the Gamecube and Wii the U is going to see ports from the PS3 and 360 for the remainder of this gen and supply ports to the PS4 and 720 next gen. The confirmed third party support so far is unbelievable, probably the best selection of launch/launch window titles I've ever seen for a console:

Lego City Stories
Ninja Gaiden 3
Killer Freaks From Outer Space
Assassin's Creed 3
An untitled Battlefield
Batman Arkham City
An untitled Tekken
Dragon Quest X
Dirt
Project C.A.R.S.
Darksiders 2
Aliens Colonial Marines
Metro Last Light
An untitled Rabbids game

I'm also expecting announcements of a Monster Hunter title, Resident Evil 6, Call of Duty, Tiger Woods, FIFA and GTA V at this years E3.

And that's just third party titles (although I think Nintendo are publishing Lego City Stories which would make that second party). You can add to that list Pikmin 3, a 2D Mario title of some description, a 3D Mario title of some description, Wii U Sports, Retro's secret title, Monolith's secret title, Super Smash Bros., Mario Kart, Zelda...the list goes on and on.

Nintendo are also making great (and expensive!) efforts to encourage third party developers by giving them free us of Havok middleware, Autodesk middleware and Green Hills Software's IDE, MULTI.

They're also paying attention to feedback from developers regarding the development of the hardware, are paying attention to feedback from developers and publishers regarding their online infrastructure and by the looks of it will be getting a years head start next gen in the same way that the 360 did this gen. The console isn't going to sell as well as the Wii (we're not going to see a frenzy like that ever again imo!) but it's going to fly off shelves.

Tldr; Yes lol

This reflects my thoughts on the matter. If Nintendo pushes out to a strong start with the right software, they can put themselves in a strategic position that it will be nearly impossible for Sony and Microsoft to wedge them out of (so long as Nintendo also has the follow-through, for which they need more sustainable game development internally, but third party parity will help on the follow through if they've got good momentum going in the first place). If they do not, however, we're going to see mediocrity.

Yeah yeah, we'll see what the reaction is when MS and Sony make tablet controllers.