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Forums - General - US job numbers show strong growth

osamanobama said:
richardhutnik said:
HesAPooka said:
osamanobama said:
also there were 132,952,000 people working in December and 130,456,000 in January. So there were 2.5 million fewer jobs in January, and we are really expected to believe the unemployment rate went down?
So the increase of 233,000 jobs, is really a complete bullshit sugar coated, massaged number.

and even if the unemployement rate really is 8.3%, it only took us over $5 trillion to get their.

and for the record, as bad as a president, that Bush was, the average unemployment rate under him was 5.2%. it once went as high as 7.3%, and that was coincidently (not) the very last month that Bush held office, when businesses had to deal with the falling out of obama taking office.

What happened to unemployment wont go above 8% if we pass the stimulus? i guess he meant it wont go below that, until hes out of office.


I'm no expert, but December is a good month for seasonal Christmas jobs. So that could explain the drop in January.

As for your Bush remark. To each their own, but I'm of the opinion that once you roll a ball down a hill it's hard to stop that ball. Bush started the ball rolling down the hill for the US, Obama just happend to take office once that ball hit the largest slop. It's now starting to slow down. We'll see what happens next. I'm Canadian, but I own a piece of property in the US so I hope things pick up down there for more than one reason. It's sad to see so many people unemployed and broke for one, and I want my house value to go up!

There is an irony to the statement above by osamanobama.  By that logic, the recession that Bush ended up in at the start of his administration would also be blamed fully on him, because apparently "businesses had to deal with the falling out of him entering office".  People who are partisan will go through immense mental gymnastics to make things fit their line of reasoning.

And, under the Bush administration, the unemployment rate kept climbing and never did get down to the rate at the start of his administration.


avererage bush unemployment 5.2%, only once reached as high as 7.3%. 

under obama, since then nver below 8%, we were gauranteed it would never go above 8% if the trillion dollar stimulus was passed.

under obama, more people have left the labor force, are unemployed, and are under employed.

the only people doing any gymnastics, is the media, and the labor department, trying to making it look like theres growth, when in facts 2.5 million less people are working today than a few months ago. the media will do what ever they can to get obama re-elected, and people like you will lap it up.

and for the record, i have absolutely no party affiliation, and am certainly not a republican, and i certainly do not think bush was a good president. and yes, businesses did react negatively with the knowlege obama was elected, it started with bush pandering more at the end, and caving in to the will of the democratic congress to start the bailouts.

The bailouts were done to "save the economy".  Look at the quotes by Paulson why the TARP was required and so on.  Look at how much the Fed ended up promising to shore up things, if needed.  It went into the trillions of dollars.   And it is important to see things, rather than just have a spin, where you want to link Obama to Osama bin Laden in your title.

As far as job creation goes:

http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/economicsunbound/archives/2009/06/a_lost_decade_f.html

 

This problem has been going on for about a decade.  Private sector job creation flatlined over the past decade.  It still isn't back.  The problems are large-scale and systemic.  



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richardhutnik said:

There is an irony to the statement above by osamanobama.  By that logic, the recession that Bush ended up in at the start of his administration would also be blamed fully on him, because apparently "businesses had to deal with the falling out of him entering office".  People who are partisan will go through immense mental gymnastics to make things fit their line of reasoning.

And, under the Bush administration, the unemployment rate kept climbing and never did get down to the rate at the start of his administration.


I think that what you don't seem to understand is the statistics you seem to fixate on are the same ones that have had their methodology changed multiple times over the past several decades, and now paint an overly rosy picture. If you use the pre-1992 calculation for the unemployment rate the current unemployment rate is above 22.5% and has steadily gotten worse throughout the Obama administration:

 

The reason for this discrepancy is based in the employment to population ratio that I posted earlier. If you simply look at the "peak" in 2008 and compare that to today roughly 10% of people who had jobs in 2008 are unemployed today, add to that the 5% of people who were unemployed in 2008, and combine that with the millions of people who would work if they could get a job (roughly 7.5%) and you get the real unemployment rate. The current methodology simply takes people who have been unemployed for too long and have become discouraged and wipes them off the books to make the statistics look better.

Edit: Essentially, what you (and many people are doing) is not that much different from praising a school board that raised test scores by expelling the bottom 25% of their students. Certainly, the aggregate average has improved but at the expense of the weakest students.



The economic crisis in the US was not Obama's fault; it began under George Bush Junior; and the decline was most severe under his government. 

Healthcare issues were already present long before Obama, and largely have to do with Americans living unhealthy lifestyles causing the obesity epidemic the country is suffering from.

Military expenses is where the US government should cut.

Although it is clear there needs to be a lot more education in the US on healthy living - tax American restaurant chains (Mcdonalds Burger Kings, Kentucky fried chickens) heavily in order to get people to stop eating unhealthy food; subsidize fitness facilities, parks with walking trails, etc... Higher petrol taxes in cities to encourage more walking/biking and less driving. Etc... 

 

Also, the US needs to really stop polluting so much. All of the smaug and pollution in the US, and a very poor environmental record is very likely causing a lot of health issues as well; not just in the US, but everywhere your pollution travels.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

HappySqurriel said:
richardhutnik said:

There is an irony to the statement above by osamanobama.  By that logic, the recession that Bush ended up in at the start of his administration would also be blamed fully on him, because apparently "businesses had to deal with the falling out of him entering office".  People who are partisan will go through immense mental gymnastics to make things fit their line of reasoning.

And, under the Bush administration, the unemployment rate kept climbing and never did get down to the rate at the start of his administration.


I think that what you don't seem to understand is the statistics you seem to fixate on are the same ones that have had their methodology changed multiple times over the past several decades, and now paint an overly rosy picture. If you use the pre-1992 calculation for the unemployment rate the current unemployment rate is above 22.5% and has steadily gotten worse throughout the Obama administration:

 

The reason for this discrepancy is based in the employment to population ratio that I posted earlier. If you simply look at the "peak" in 2008 and compare that to today roughly 10% of people who had jobs in 2008 are unemployed today, add to that the 5% of people who were unemployed in 2008, and combine that with the millions of people who would work if they could get a job (roughly 7.5%) and you get the real unemployment rate. The current methodology simply takes people who have been unemployed for too long and have become discouraged and wipes them off the books to make the statistics look better.

Edit: Essentially, what you (and many people are doing) is not that much different from praising a school board that raised test scores by expelling the bottom 25% of their students. Certainly, the aggregate average has improved but at the expense of the weakest students.

What is this "SGS Alternative?" it seems by even the broader metric according to that graph that the numbers are in decline.

From what i've seen, the fundamentals have been shifting back into place, everything except consumer/industrial confidence. Part of the reason why i estimate that economics is all voodoo, because you essential have real output (income) which is fixed relative to productivity and technology and accumulation of resources, and then everything else runs purely off of expectations.

Get everyone smiling, keep the fundamentals in order, and watch it all shine.



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Jumpin said:

Although it is clear there needs to be a lot more education in the US on healthy living - tax American restaurant chains (Mcdonalds Burger Kings, Kentucky fried chickens) heavily in order to get people to stop eating unhealthy food; subsidize fitness facilities, parks with walking trails, etc... Higher petrol taxes in cities to encourage more walking/biking and less driving. Etc... 

I'm no food expert (in addition food isn't much of a science), but instead of taxing unhealthy chains and therefore it's customers you can probably push them towards gradually using better fats and ingredients.

Subsidizing fitness or higher petrol taxes seem very ineffectual to me as well.



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non-gravity said:
Jumpin said:

Although it is clear there needs to be a lot more education in the US on healthy living - tax American restaurant chains (Mcdonalds Burger Kings, Kentucky fried chickens) heavily in order to get people to stop eating unhealthy food; subsidize fitness facilities, parks with walking trails, etc... Higher petrol taxes in cities to encourage more walking/biking and less driving. Etc... 

I'm no food expert (in addition food isn't much of a science), but instead of taxing unhealthy chains and therefore it's customers you can probably push them towards gradually using better fats and ingredients.

Subsidizing fitness or higher petrol taxes seem very ineffectual to me as well.

Explain what you mean by ineffectual.

As for the push you are suggesting, why wouldn't the threat of a fat tax be an adequate push? Wouldn't that be enough of a push to get those unhealthy chain restaurants to attempt to change their status to avoid the fat tax?



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

.



Mr Khan said:
HappySqurriel said:
richardhutnik said:

There is an irony to the statement above by osamanobama.  By that logic, the recession that Bush ended up in at the start of his administration would also be blamed fully on him, because apparently "businesses had to deal with the falling out of him entering office".  People who are partisan will go through immense mental gymnastics to make things fit their line of reasoning.

And, under the Bush administration, the unemployment rate kept climbing and never did get down to the rate at the start of his administration.


I think that what you don't seem to understand is the statistics you seem to fixate on are the same ones that have had their methodology changed multiple times over the past several decades, and now paint an overly rosy picture. If you use the pre-1992 calculation for the unemployment rate the current unemployment rate is above 22.5% and has steadily gotten worse throughout the Obama administration:

 

The reason for this discrepancy is based in the employment to population ratio that I posted earlier. If you simply look at the "peak" in 2008 and compare that to today roughly 10% of people who had jobs in 2008 are unemployed today, add to that the 5% of people who were unemployed in 2008, and combine that with the millions of people who would work if they could get a job (roughly 7.5%) and you get the real unemployment rate. The current methodology simply takes people who have been unemployed for too long and have become discouraged and wipes them off the books to make the statistics look better.

Edit: Essentially, what you (and many people are doing) is not that much different from praising a school board that raised test scores by expelling the bottom 25% of their students. Certainly, the aggregate average has improved but at the expense of the weakest students.

What is this "SGS Alternative?" it seems by even the broader metric according to that graph that the numbers are in decline.

From what i've seen, the fundamentals have been shifting back into place, everything except consumer/industrial confidence. Part of the reason why i estimate that economics is all voodoo, because you essential have real output (income) which is fixed relative to productivity and technology and accumulation of resources, and then everything else runs purely off of expectations.

Get everyone smiling, keep the fundamentals in order, and watch it all shine.

The chart is from one of many websites that claim to calculate the pre-1992 unemployment numbers, Shadow Government Statistics (SGS).

As for the economy, while the stock market and debt-driven consumption tend to improve based on sentiment improvement in the economy is driven by how competitive a countries businesses and work force are relative to other countries. When you factor in higher management costs, less educated workers, greater regulatory burden, an insane tax code, massive litigation risk, slow improvements in productivity, and many other factors it is clear that the US is becoming less competitive compared to many developed nations; and dramatically less competitive compared to developing nations.



Jumpin said:

The economic crisis in the US was not Obama's fault; it began under George Bush Junior; and the decline was most severe under his government. 

Healthcare issues were already present long before Obama, and largely have to do with Americans living unhealthy lifestyles causing the obesity epidemic the country is suffering from.

Military expenses is where the US government should cut.

Although it is clear there needs to be a lot more education in the US on healthy living - tax American restaurant chains (Mcdonalds Burger Kings, Kentucky fried chickens) heavily in order to get people to stop eating unhealthy food; subsidize fitness facilities, parks with walking trails, etc... Higher petrol taxes in cities to encourage more walking/biking and less driving. Etc... 

 

Also, the US needs to really stop polluting so much. All of the smaug and pollution in the US, and a very poor environmental record is very likely causing a lot of health issues as well; not just in the US, but everywhere your pollution travels.


Some of the first things I see happening under a so called "fat tax" on restaurant chains:

Those chains would be forced into certain options which include: laying off wokers, closing chain locations, and passing the added tax onto the consumer. When taxes are raised on businesses most of the time they either find loop holes or pass the added cost onto consumers.

Also how would you even maintain regulations like that and create the standards for businesses to run effeciently? In all honesty, Jumpin It would be a mess.




Jumpin said:

The economic crisis in the US was not Obama's fault; it began under George Bush Junior; and the decline was most severe under his government. 

Healthcare issues were already present long before Obama, and largely have to do with Americans living unhealthy lifestyles causing the obesity epidemic the country is suffering from.

Military expenses is where the US government should cut.

Although it is clear there needs to be a lot more education in the US on healthy living - tax American restaurant chains (Mcdonalds Burger Kings, Kentucky fried chickens) heavily in order to get people to stop eating unhealthy food; subsidize fitness facilities, parks with walking trails, etc... Higher petrol taxes in cities to encourage more walking/biking and less driving. Etc... 

 

Also, the US needs to really stop polluting so much. All of the smaug and pollution in the US, and a very poor environmental record is very likely causing a lot of health issues as well; not just in the US, but everywhere your pollution travels.

you want the government to tell people how to live their lives?

totalitarian much?

how long until we are forced to buy only government aproved green cars, government approved drinks, government aproved clothes, etc. how long until products that government decides are bad for us are taxed to oblivion and products government likes is forced on us by huge tax subsidies and compulsory purchasing mandates. We must buy "green" cars we must buy "fair trade coffee" we must buy "organic" food, we must buy "Natural" clothes. but we cant buy a truck we want, we cant buy the drinks we want, we cant buy the clothes we want. 

We can no longer buy the insurance we want, we are forced to buy insurance policies that cover thing that we do not support.

you sure do seem to support fascistic ideals, the exact opposite ideals of what the US was founded on, and what are constitution is no struggling to uphold.