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Forums - Nintendo - Nintendo stock is now "Super Mega Buy"

Baalzamon said:
Khuutra said:
Baalzamon said:

The price of a stock in all reality has absolutely nothing to do with whether a stock can grow more or not.  Apple has simply chosen not to do all sorts of splits throughout the days to keep their stock price down (which I still don't get the point of).  Nothing restricts Apples stock from going to 600 anymore than something limits Nintendo from going up to 20.

Warren Buffets stock, last I checked, actually has a price of like 19,000 or 20,000.

Stock splitting is actually super neat in that it lets more and smaller investors (like me) jump onto the good ship Investment. I couldn't buy a reasonable amount of Apple stock even if I wanted to.

For smaller investors, but if somebody is going to invest, say $5000 in a stock, it generally isn't going to be a big difference whether the stock is $200 or $20.  I'm not particular knowledgeable on the subject, but it MIGHT even be possible in some instances to purchase fractions of a stock.


It depends. I can get fractions of stock in the Bank of Montreal (and I do), but that's only because it's a special feature they only offer to people enrolled in their dividend re-investment plans. Otherwise I'm only able to buy whole stocks. I'm sure that some companies allow the purchase of stock fractions through similar methods, but I don't know how it would work otherwise.

And I tend to invest slowly, over time, in order to take advantage of price normalization. Instead of buying $10,000 in BMO stock all at once, I'd do it over the course of ten months, once a month. Price fluctuations are fairly regular, so when the stock costs more I buy less of it, and when it costs less I buy more of it - and if you do the math on it, then I actually end up with more stock at the end of the year compared to the average person who dropped $10,000 on a given day.

This Nintendo thing is one of the very, very few cases where I'd be willing to break that rule.



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Baalzamon said:
Khuutra said:

It would be very, very, very surprising if Apple stock increased to over $1200 a share in the same timeframe that Nintendo's stock could double in value.

Yes, I would be baffled for something like this to happen.  But I would also be much less surprised to see Nintendo stock go down to 8 versus Apple decreasing to 200.

While one may be able to make more investing in Nintendo, one has to determine whether the increased risk is worth it or not.  The plain and simple truth is that Apple is a much less risky investment than Nintendo.


Over the course of five years? I simply have to disagree - assuming that they will stay at sub-$20 for that long would require the 3DS to stop selling and the Wii U to bomb almost as hard as the Gamecube did. Maybe harder.



That's very odd lol, it almost seems like a joke!



           

pezus said:
Khuutra said:
pezus said:
Khuutra said:
pezus said:

And also the greater potential for a loss. It's a risky buy, which is why I'd never classify it as super-mega buy


Uh.... sort of. Any loss at this point which be a greater loss, yes... but you have to keep in mind the perspective of time, here. It's a long-term sort of thing. The likelihood of Nintendo's stock failing to rise above $17 over the course of the next few years is remote, if one has any confidence in their software success (which many do, and reasonably so).

That's why it's a "super mega buy". The idea that it would stay this low, full-stop, for years on end? Not very likely

I don't know. I think I like this graph: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/interactive-chart?timeframe=5y&charttype=line better than this graph: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ntdoy/interactive-chart?timeframe=5y&charttype=line 


Those aren't displaying for me, would you mind explaining what you're illustrating?

Damn, I think their website went down or something. It was just showing the stock charts for Apple (last 5 years) and Nintendo (last 5 years). I'll take a screenshot:

That's not last 5 years for nintendo though, only last one year.

The problem with nintendo stock is that it's more volatile. It WILL go up, but it's nto a long term investment. It just doesn't have a whole lot of growth potential. Sure it can go up, but when all you make is a console and games, it's hard to really continue. The only way is to branch out, and that's something Nintendo is not very into. Whereas an investment into apple at 80$ could turn into 1000$, investment into nintendo at 20, could turn into 100, and then go back down to 20 once the console lifespan is up.

And the reason why some stocks are in the many thousands is because high price is a deterrent to volatility. The people that invest 10,000 are far more cautious investors than the people who invest 20$. The people that invest several thousand do so because they know it is going to go up. These investors are generally mutual funds, large companies, or professional traders, not people at home buying and selling all day.



pezus said:
Khuutra said:

It would be very, very, very surprising if Apple stock increased to over $1200 a share in the same timeframe that Nintendo's stock could double in value.

I guess so, but who's to guarantee that Nintendo stock suddenly doubles? Looking at the charts, I just wish I bought Apple stock around 3 years ago


It wouldn't need to be a "sudden" thing, though. It just needs to happen period, someitme in the next half decade.



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pezus said:
Khuutra said:


It wouldn't need to be a "sudden" thing, though. It just needs to happen period, someitme in the next half decade.

If we're talking 5 years then it isn't impossible for Apple stock to go to $1200


You are being willfully disingenuous.

Nintendo's stock is more volatile than Apple's stock by a considerable measure. It's not even the best possible measure of health for the company. Nintendo's stock will fluctuate more and more quickly than Apple's over the course of the same time period. If one thinks that Nintendo's systems will do well over the next half-decade, the stock doubling in that period would be a conservative estimate.



pezus said:
Khuutra said:


You are being willfully disingenuous.

Nintendo's stock is more volatile than Apple's stock by a considerable measure. It's not even the best possible measure of health for the company. Nintendo's stock will fluctuate more and more quickly than Apple's over the course of the same time period. If one thinks that Nintendo's systems will do well over the next half-decade, the stock doubling in that period would be a conservative estimate.

Yes, but Wii U doing well is not a certainty. The guy who wrote that article seems to think it is. 

Granted. That's what makes it an interesting bet, though.



pezus said:
theprof00 said:
pezus said:
Khuutra said:
pezus said:
Khuutra said:
pezus said:

And also the greater potential for a loss. It's a risky buy, which is why I'd never classify it as super-mega buy


Uh.... sort of. Any loss at this point which be a greater loss, yes... but you have to keep in mind the perspective of time, here. It's a long-term sort of thing. The likelihood of Nintendo's stock failing to rise above $17 over the course of the next few years is remote, if one has any confidence in their software success (which many do, and reasonably so).

That's why it's a "super mega buy". The idea that it would stay this low, full-stop, for years on end? Not very likely

I don't know. I think I like this graph: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/interactive-chart?timeframe=5y&charttype=line better than this graph: http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/ntdoy/interactive-chart?timeframe=5y&charttype=line 


Those aren't displaying for me, would you mind explaining what you're illustrating?

Damn, I think their website went down or something. It was just showing the stock charts for Apple (last 5 years) and Nintendo (last 5 years). I'll take a screenshot:

That's not last 5 years for nintendo though, only last one year.

The problem with nintendo stock is that it's more volatile. It WILL go up, but it's nto a long term investment. It just doesn't have a whole lot of growth potential. Sure it can go up, but when all you make is a console and games, it's hard to really continue. The only way is to branch out, and that's something Nintendo is not very into. Whereas an investment into apple at 80$ could turn into 1000$, investment into nintendo at 20, could turn into 100, and then go back down to 20 once the console lifespan is up.

And the reason why some stocks are in the many thousands is because high price is a deterrent to volatility. The people that invest 10,000 are far more cautious investors than the people who invest 20$. The people that invest several thousand do so because they know it is going to go up. These investors are generally mutual funds, large companies, or professional traders, not people at home buying and selling all day.

Hmm I thought I had selected 5 years for Nintendo. Anyway, the 5 year graph looks even worse

You don't want to look at the five year though. You wanna look at when wii came out. Sub 15 to 85 in two years.

Hopefully, it'll shrink another 3 dollars. Then I'll invest.

 

Looking at the volume of the corresponding drops, it appears that the stock is still moving downward despite the gains it's had over the past five days.



I actually don't know how to buy foreign stock without going through a broker. Is there an easy way to do that?



"What do you do when a stock that you thought was a buy at $33/share falls to $16.50/share?  You reassess your investment thesis and act accordingly.  We thought Nintendo offered a good long term value investment opportunity before the tragic tsunami in Japan and after a 50% drop last year we feel it is now a great long term investment.  Nintendo’s cash and cash equivalents currently comprise around 50% of its market capitalization.  It has gotten so cheap that we had to create a new rating, Super Mega Buy.  We feel that Nintendo’s stock currently has more upside than Apple. Our investment thesis is that Wii U will return the Big N to revenue and earnings growth for the next 3 years.  We also feel that reports of the death of the 3DS after its release were greatly exaggerated.  Clearly we have been early, but our investment thesis has not been refuted as of yet.  As a result, we are upgrading Nintendo today to Super Mega Buy from Buy. Goldman Sachs has their Conviction Buy List, we now have the Super Mega Buy rating."

 

How about the fact that since you put the stock as buy it has been down 54% ? Isn't that a refutation of your thesis ??????



PS3-Xbox360 gap : 1.5 millions and going up in PS3 favor !

PS3-Wii gap : 20 millions and going down !