the only solutions are:
austerity(which they won't accept
default and devaluation (which will happen in 2012)
most people won't know why this happened and there will be chaos and the elite will want to start WW3 in IRAN
the only solutions are:
austerity(which they won't accept
default and devaluation (which will happen in 2012)
most people won't know why this happened and there will be chaos and the elite will want to start WW3 in IRAN
Lord Ciansworth said:
"You come so close to getting it... yet then veer completely away from it... I dont understand." Wow, I'll try to ignore the perplexing levels of arrogrance you've shown here. I know you think you know quite a bit about economics and, in fairness, you do get some of this stuff. Try being a little less cocky though, you're not nearly as well informed about this as you think you are, believe me. Let's me offer some corrections to what you've said.
1) Without strict austerity (the whole point of this arguement) you can't say you have strict fiscal constraints with insistence on it being met. The USA has strict budget rules about State budget deficits. Yet the US acts as a "Lender of last resort" to the states. What happens? They don't tackle their budget problems. Not quite sure if this point is serious. If you really believe the Federal Reserve has much to do with the US not being able to manage its budget deficits you're barking up the wrong tree. Congress during the presidencies of Clinton and Nixon (LBJ as well I think though I'm not sure, it's been a while since I studied that stuff) managed to produce small budget surpluses. US budget deficits have varied wildly over the years. The reason for this is the US political system is royaly screwed up. It has little to do with the Fed. 2) Europe doesn't have the money to bail out bigger countries anyway. Europe has more money it can fork out, but not anywhere near enough to save a State like Italy. It depends for how long you're talking about. For a short period, perhaps one to three years or so, it could be managed, after that things would get a bit ropey. That's why you need regulations for fiscal responsibility to be introduced but it needs to be more gradually. Room for growth must be allowed. You take away all available credit straight away the downward spiral keeps going. 3) the ECB working as a lender of last resort would SEVERLY drain other countries, and likely push them over the edge as well. France isn't as far away from being Italy as you'd think. But it's a lot further from Italy than you think. A lot of the hoo-haa about France regards the exposure of its financial institutions to Greek, Irish, Spanish, and Italian debt. If you can convince the market that this debt won't be defaulted on then large chunks of France's problems go away. That's why they are so keen on the issuing of Eurobonds.
In short the truth is if you restore market confidence in the Eurozone, a lot of the problems get solved. I don't think anyone would dispute that. Market confidence does not get restored, however, if the market believes an Italian default can happen in the near future. So, how do you avert this? 1. You introduce measures which insist on fiscal responsibility. However, you do it at a gradual pace that allows some credit to circulate in the market and allow the chance for domestic growth to occur. This measure, on its own, won't work though. Why? Beacuse this doesn't alter the sobering reality that if Italy can't get enough credit on the market it automatically defaults. The ESM isn't enough to save it, even on any reasonable short term basis. The Eurozone as a whole, however, does have the cash to save it on a short term basis. 2. Therefore you must depoliticise the giving of emergency credit to Italy as much as possible by making the ECB a 'lender of last resort'. The market will then be confident enough that short term bonds will be honoured and so will be able to make credit available to Italy at a sustainable rate. These two need to go hand in hand. It doesn't seem like one works without the other. |
I think you are overlooking some things here.
1) The federal reserve IS NOT a lender of last resort ot the US government. It's ONLY a lender of last resort to US banks. The ECB is already a lender of last resort to Europeon banks.
2) 1 to 3 years... what's that going to accomplish? Nothing. The main short term Italian Bond is 3 years! Who is going to buy a 3 year italian bond when they know the EU only has enough money to MAYBE keep things spinning in time for you to cash that in.... possibly?
3) Except you can't do that, because Europe doesn't have the money to do that as established by yourself.
The EU Doesn't have enough money to save Italy at all. At best it CAN negotatie Italy into a strategic default that isn't called one. Just like Greece is going through.

No, there isn't any way to avoid collapse. European countries need to elect the people who will be the best at damage control... which will never happen.
| Wh1pL4shL1ve_007 said: So what happens if a nation "Defaults" |
there currencies will devalue
like indian 1 rupee = 52 dollars us
it be indian 1 rupee = 20 us dollars
indians will be able to buy more stuff after collapse compred to now.
this was just an example,this can be applied to currency conversions across the board
when devaluation happens,USA and European standard of living will drop big time as they overconsume at the moment
and because people don't understand the economics and why this happens,there will be chaos and they might rebel causing alot of shit
| Jexy said: Stop being so socialist and giving out everything for free. You can't pay for all of that free college education and free health care without getting the money from somewhere, and taxes are already high in Europe... Also, interesting how college is the most expensive in the USA (although the best colleges and vast majority of them are in the USA) and yet USA has the highest % of people going to college than any country in the world, including European countries which has it for free. In many cases, the USA % doubles Eu countries with college graduates. I think that has to do more with the culture of learning here, and the culture of college and the athletics that go with it and make it prestigious. |
Well Scandinavian countries are doing rather fine and we have free education, healthcare etc. You can have socialist market economy and still have goverment doing fine financially. Not to mention USA has just as high debt ratio as many European countries and you don't have any of these benefits.
Marks said:
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It is none of my business what a nation decides for itself. It would resolve the debt crisis, which was the question at hand. Did I say it was the best solution? No I didn't.
| Wh1pL4shL1ve_007 said: So what happens if a nation "Defaults" |
It declares its current bonds worthless. It means that the nation, if it ever needs to borrow again, has to pay a lot higher interest in the future. In short, it says it isn't paying back the money it borrowed.
KillerMan said:
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depedns on what you think is fine
yeah scandinavia has pretty good economics but good isn't being just sustainible but also highly productive and competition
the old USA free market was the best kind of place where competition helped people make better and better things for the soceity
also scandinavia is so good as they had a previous good standards which let them leverage that with the credit system
once the FED and other central banks go down and GOLD standard comes back,every country will need to compete and have active part in production to sustain their status not just really on investment and banking
richardhutnik said:
It declares its current bonds worthless. It means that the nation, if it ever needs to borrow again, has to pay a lot higher interest in the future. In short, it says it isn't paying back the money it borrowed. |
I wonder what would happen if USA deaults O.o
Maybe, homefront? but with chinese instead of koreans?
Yay!!!