Wow... Just wow.. You could have at least said it was two GC duct taped together...

I'm still predicting Q4 2013 for next Xbox and I'm sticking with that for the moment. The Wii U doesn't sound like it's going to be that big a jump to worry 360 in US and I'm not convinced Nintendo will have the online sorted out to make it compelling vs Live.

In short looking at sales this year I expect 360 to have a strong 2012 too, then MS to allow it to wind down a bit in 2013 and shift to the new console - while still supporting 360 for another year or two at least assuming sales hold up in US for the 360 with another Xbox on the market.

Why do people buy new cars every so many years? Why do TV manufacturers release new models every month? Why do we buy new clothes every so often? Why did DVD replace VHS and then Blu-Ray begin to replace DVD?  Why do people go to the movie theater when they have a TV at home? Why do restaraunts sometimes change their menus?

Seems like Captain Obvious is written all over this one...

Microsoft and Sony are (more or less) being forced into releasing their next generation consoles by Nintendo ...

Neither company wants to leave the Wii U on the market for long enough that it can build a userbase that is large enough and become the "default console" that consumers buy and developers target; and, while Sony and Microsoft could produce systems that are substantially more powerful, the additional processing power could be wasted in technical enhancements that people don't notice and care about (improved output resolution from 720p to 1080p, increased framerate from 30fps to 60fps, etc.).

How long Sony and Microsoft have depends on how the Wii U sells, but it would take a near record pace to become the default console in 12 months on the market alone and a fairly moderate pace to become the default console in 24 months on the market alone.

I love it when people are accidentally funny, it's the best kind!

I don't think  at the moment the Wii U looks like much of a threat TBH, particularly to the 360.  The strength of the 360 in US and its key markets is its position as the best online platform.

Whatever specifications Wii U has, unless Nintendo seriously sort out their online infrastructure - which I'm guessing they won't certainly during the first 18 months of Wii U's lifespan - I doubt it will take many 360 or PS3 gamers away from Live/PSN.  It's also likely that during the first 18 months or more the Wii U will get matching spec versions of 360/PS3 titles - in others words the current HD consoles with the biggest install base are likley to set the bar for graphics/tech with 3rd party developers not the Wii U.  Taking the analogy of DVD vs Blu-Ray (with 360/PS3) I think Wii U will suffer from being undersupported in use of any additional power.

Initially I expect Wii U to appeal more to existing Wii owners without overly troubling the current HD consoles, particularly the 360 in US where Live more than anything will act as a barrier to Wii U adoption in the 360's core demographic.

Also, outside that it needs to catch general public like the Wii did - and I don't think lightning is going to strike twice this time.  The tablet controller to me looks like having far less impact than the Wii's controls and Wii Sports.  Kinect should more than offset the Wii U from the "fun gadget" perspective.

Of course I could be wrong - but I really don't think MS and Sony will be too worried about letting Wii U have an initial run at the market.  Of course, if it does hit home like the Wii, then I expect to see Plan B's in full force from MS and Sony as they accelerate their plans.

I still think Sony/MS will leave Wii U unchallenged until Q3 2013 earliest and maybe even Q4.

Nintendo is releasing their next console soon, thus Sony and Microsoft will follow, they need to compete with it one way or another.

The Wii U isn't a threat to the XBox 360, it is a threat to preventing Microsoft from establishing an "XBox 720" ...

If the Wii U builds a large userbase (20+ Million), with strong sales (15+ Million per year), and develops a track record of being able to sell games in big third party franchises before the "XBox 720" is launched it will (likely) ensure that the vast majority of third party games released in the next generation will also be released for it. If Nintendo can develop a large worthwhile library of games and create a significant price advantage on top of this it creates a challenge to justify the purchase of another console for the majority of gamers.

Essentially, if the Wii U is on the market for long enough without being challenged that it has a large library of good/great games, a large price advantage, and the vast majority of new games are being released to it the PS4 and XBox 720 will struggle to establish themselves; and we will (likely) see a lopsided generation. In order to prevent this, Sony and Microsoft will release their next generation consoles before Nintendo can hit this point. Being that it is likely Nintendo would hit this milestone after being on the market for 12 to 18 months on its own, it is likely that neither Sony or Microsoft will launch their console (much) more than 12 months after the Wii U.

But...but...LOL Nintendo.

Everyone knows Sony and MS don't take Nintendo's actions into consideration. They are not a 'threat'.

While I know you're joking, this is how some people (seem to) think ...

Conventional wisdom on who will buy which console seems to be driven by observations of the "tip of the iceberg" of the userbase of an existing system, and the belief that all companies will continue with their current strategy from one generation to the next. This means that the bulk of a userbase made their purchasing decisions for reasons that are not particularly well studied or understood and may make a different decision in the next generation based on those reasons. On top of that, as we see from the strategy shifts between generations for Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo (as well as the mid-generation strategy shift by Microsoft and Sony this generation) the strategy of each of the companies from one generation to the next can shift dramatically.

Essentially, people assume that everyone who bought an XBox 360 is a hard-core gamer and no hard-core gamers bought a Wii, and that Nintendo will remain focused on the broader gamer market while Microsoft focuses on the core gamer. With what we know about the Wii U it appears that Nintendo is making efforts to target the core gamer, and (after Kinect) it wouldn't be too surprising to see a greater effort (from launch) for Microsoft to target the broader gamer market.