Why would Microsoft want to release the NextBox?

[HappySqurriel]

Play4Fun said:

HappySqurriel said:

The Wii U isn't a threat to the XBox 360, it is a threat to preventing Microsoft from establishing an "XBox 720" ...

If the Wii U builds a large userbase (20+ Million), with strong sales (15+ Million per year), and develops a track record of being able to sell games in big third party franchises before the "XBox 720" is launched it will (likely) ensure that the vast majority of third party games released in the next generation will also be released for it. If Nintendo can develop a large worthwhile library of games and create a significant price advantage on top of this it creates a challenge to justify the purchase of another console for the majority of gamers.

Essentially, if the Wii U is on the market for long enough without being challenged that it has a large library of good/great games, a large price advantage, and the vast majority of new games are being released to it the PS4 and XBox 720 will struggle to establish themselves; and we will (likely) see a lopsided generation. In order to prevent this, Sony and Microsoft will release their next generation consoles before Nintendo can hit this point. Being that it is likely Nintendo would hit this milestone after being on the market for 12 to 18 months on its own, it is likely that neither Sony or Microsoft will launch their console (much) more than 12 months after the Wii U.

But...but...LOL Nintendo.

Everyone knows Sony and MS don't take Nintendo's actions into consideration. They are not a 'threat'.

While I know you're joking, this is how some people (seem to) think ...

Conventional wisdom on who will buy which console seems to be driven by observations of the "tip of the iceberg" of the userbase of an existing system, and the belief that all companies will continue with their current strategy from one generation to the next. This means that the bulk of a userbase made their purchasing decisions for reasons that are not particularly well studied or understood and may make a different decision in the next generation based on those reasons. On top of that, as we see from the strategy shifts between generations for Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo (as well as the mid-generation strategy shift by Microsoft and Sony this generation) the strategy of each of the companies from one generation to the next can shift dramatically.

Essentially, people assume that everyone who bought an XBox 360 is a hard-core gamer and no hard-core gamers bought a Wii, and that Nintendo will remain focused on the broader gamer market while Microsoft focuses on the core gamer. With what we know about the Wii U it appears that Nintendo is making efforts to target the core gamer, and (after Kinect) it wouldn't be too surprising to see a greater effort (from launch) for Microsoft to target the broader gamer market.