not to long specially in the west i wouldnt wait more than a few months less than 6 if i were sony
if MS gets a 1 year or 1 1/2 year in Euro again, next gen will be hard on sony market share wise, look at how long it took Sony to pass MS in EU that was with 360 having issues like non establish fan bass and console failure rate, these might not be as big of a issue next gen specifically fan base
more and more big titles are becoming multi plat between them going to next gen i believe this will continue. Sony really lost US to MS this gen, releasing same time as MS or a few months later would stop it from progressing more in US than it has this gen or maybe making up some ground, its really EU sony has to worry about not making gamers there wait to long, its there region to loose MS can only gain
imo sony extremely needs these things next gen, to release at a decent price about $100 cheaper than this gen, have a console that is superior than the competition that can show in 3rd party games, and maintain great thing it did this gen free online, no extra stuff to buy like batteries and specific overpriced HDDs, and beef up ther online capabilities ( a personal request would be to develop some above average exclusive SW that can appeal to the matured gamers that built them in the 90s and early 2000s) and they should be in great shape