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Forums - Sales - My Prediction Update Ps3>360 x1.29 (1st Oct 2011)

Allfreedom99 on 19 September 2011
mantlepiecek said:
Allfreedom99 said:

Its at 1.6 ratio right now, but my intuition says it will be less than 1.6 ratio by end of 2011. One main reason is the X360 exclusive title releases (Gears 3, Forza 4, Halo: Anniversary), plus the custom consoles (Gears console, MW3 console, and possibly one more since the Star Wars console will release next year), and lastly the Kinect holiday boost and Kinect titles. Those 3 main factors will keep PS3 from outselling X360 this holiday season IMO.

If MS includes a price cut then the scenario changes and X360 outsells PS3 by wide margins during the holiday months, but it is fair to say that is speculation since there have been no announcements. I personally think some kind of cut will occur however before the major holidays. Even without a price cut from MS my intuition is telling me the PS3 will not stay at 1.6, but will decrease from that number by end of 2011.


People are forgetting final fantasy 13-2 and its custom console in japan, along with ni no kuni. Japan is going to be huge for PS3 this year, and there is uncharted 3 to rival forza and halo. Gears will do good nos no doubt about it.

With a price cut, the 360 will at the most equal PS3 during the holidays. Kinect isn't going to sell consoles as much as it will sell itself during holidays.

I can see where you are coming from through most of your post, but if you are saying that a price cut for X360 would "At most equal" holiday sales figures of PS3 then I would very much disagree with you. A X360 price cut for the holidays would boost sales by very large margins and I wager would sell significantly more than its competition.




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mantlepiecek on 19 September 2011
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
mantlepiecek said:
Allfreedom99 said:

Its at 1.6 ratio right now, but my intuition says it will be less than 1.6 ratio by end of 2011. One main reason is the X360 exclusive title releases (Gears 3, Forza 4, Halo: Anniversary), plus the custom consoles (Gears console, MW3 console, and possibly one more since the Star Wars console will release next year), and lastly the Kinect holiday boost and Kinect titles. Those 3 main factors will keep PS3 from outselling X360 this holiday season IMO.

If MS includes a price cut then the scenario changes and X360 outsells PS3 by wide margins during the holiday months, but it is fair to say that is speculation since there have been no announcements. I personally think some kind of cut will occur however before the major holidays. Even without a price cut from MS my intuition is telling me the PS3 will not stay at 1.6, but will decrease from that number by end of 2011.


People are forgetting final fantasy 13-2 and its custom console in japan, along with ni no kuni. Japan is going to be huge for PS3 this year, and there is uncharted 3 to rival forza and halo. Gears will do good nos no doubt about it.

With a price cut, the 360 will at the most equal PS3 during the holidays. Kinect isn't going to sell consoles as much as it will sell itself during holidays.

hell yea i forgot about FFXIII-2 and ni no kuni! with those 2 games/bundles sony should pull 2011 of nicely. wht month do they come out. 

December, I think.



mantlepiecek on 19 September 2011
Allfreedom99 said:
mantlepiecek said:
Allfreedom99 said:

Its at 1.6 ratio right now, but my intuition says it will be less than 1.6 ratio by end of 2011. One main reason is the X360 exclusive title releases (Gears 3, Forza 4, Halo: Anniversary), plus the custom consoles (Gears console, MW3 console, and possibly one more since the Star Wars console will release next year), and lastly the Kinect holiday boost and Kinect titles. Those 3 main factors will keep PS3 from outselling X360 this holiday season IMO.

If MS includes a price cut then the scenario changes and X360 outsells PS3 by wide margins during the holiday months, but it is fair to say that is speculation since there have been no announcements. I personally think some kind of cut will occur however before the major holidays. Even without a price cut from MS my intuition is telling me the PS3 will not stay at 1.6, but will decrease from that number by end of 2011.


People are forgetting final fantasy 13-2 and its custom console in japan, along with ni no kuni. Japan is going to be huge for PS3 this year, and there is uncharted 3 to rival forza and halo. Gears will do good nos no doubt about it.

With a price cut, the 360 will at the most equal PS3 during the holidays. Kinect isn't going to sell consoles as much as it will sell itself during holidays.

I can see where you are coming from through most of your post, but if you are saying that a price cut for X360 would "At most equal" holiday sales figures of PS3 then I would very much disagree with you. A X360 price cut for the holidays would boost sales by very large margins and I wager would sell significantly more than its competition.

I guess it depends upon the price cut. If its equivalent to the PS3's cut, then I believe it will only sell similar to PS3.



Allfreedom99 on 19 September 2011
CGI-Quality said:
Allfreedom99 said:
CGI-Quality said:
Allfreedom99 said:

Its at 1.6 times right now, but my intuition says it will be less than 1.6% by end of 2011. One main reason is the X360 exclusive title releases (Gears 3, Forza 4, Halo: Anniversary), plus the custom consoles (Gears console, MW3 console, and possibly one more since the Star Wars console will release next year), and lastly the Kinect holiday boost and Kinect titles. Those 3 main factors will keep PS3 from outselling X360 this holiday season IMO.

If MS includes a price cut then the scenario changes and X360 outsells PS3 by wide margins during the holiday months, but it is fair to say that is speculation since there have been no announcements. I personally think some kind of cut will occur however before the major holidays. Even without a price cut from MS my intuition is telling me the PS3 will not stay at 1.6, but will decrease from that number by end of 2011.

Forza and Halo nwon't really do much, but Gears 3 will next week and Kinect will in the Americas. Not sure if that can top  EMEAA + Japan for PS3, however.

True to an extent. Gears and Kinect will be the main driving force of console sales increases as well as the custom consoles. Thats not to say Forza and Halo Anniversary won't do anything. They will give some console sales boosts upon their release. My intuition is that we will see huge sales increases in Americas and significant sales increases in EMEAA for the holiday months. I expect PS3 sales to have increases in all regions, but all in all I think we will see the 1 to 1.6 ratio of console sales decrease by years end. This means I think WW the x360 major boost in Americas and significant boost in EMEAA will have just slightly more sales numbers than PS3 numbers world wide for holiday season. Indeed it is just my opinion, but I feel that the X360 exclusives, Kinect, and custom consoles will have slightly more of an effect from a marketing standpoint which translates into slightly more sales.

Edit: this scenario is with no X360 price cut. With a price cut and whole different ball game.

You're crediting the 360 while leaving the PS3 dry. What about Uncharted 3's release? Final Fantasy XIII-2's custom bundle? Ni No Kuni's custom bundle? White, European PS3? Red & Bue Japanese PS3s? All will give mild to substantial boosts (mainly in the Americas for Uncharted & Japan for everything else). Yes the 360 will have boosts as well, but the significant ones will be Gears 3 and Kinect. It's anyone's guess, but the PS3's price cut should keep it ahead, especially in EMEAA, where the ratios probably won't be as close as you think.

I do agree that PS3 will sell very well this holiday. It will have some great sales numbers. I'm just saying that from my standpoint it looks like MS has themselves positioned pretty well. I would agree that without a X360 price cut then PS3 is far enough ahead that it will win 2011 over X360. My stance is that Microsoft's marketing strategy will at the least keep them even but I think slightly ahead of PS3 sales in the final few months of 2011. I understand I could be way off come end of the year, but I don't see PS3 maintaining the 1 to 1.6 ratio by end of this year. I honestly think 1 to 1.4 ratio is a bit high, but I can't see a 1 to 1.6 ratio being maintained at all by years end.




MARCUSDJACKSON on 19 September 2011
mantlepiecek said:
MARCUSDJACKSON said:
mantlepiecek said:
Allfreedom99 said:

Its at 1.6 ratio right now, but my intuition says it will be less than 1.6 ratio by end of 2011. One main reason is the X360 exclusive title releases (Gears 3, Forza 4, Halo: Anniversary), plus the custom consoles (Gears console, MW3 console, and possibly one more since the Star Wars console will release next year), and lastly the Kinect holiday boost and Kinect titles. Those 3 main factors will keep PS3 from outselling X360 this holiday season IMO.

If MS includes a price cut then the scenario changes and X360 outsells PS3 by wide margins during the holiday months, but it is fair to say that is speculation since there have been no announcements. I personally think some kind of cut will occur however before the major holidays. Even without a price cut from MS my intuition is telling me the PS3 will not stay at 1.6, but will decrease from that number by end of 2011.


People are forgetting final fantasy 13-2 and its custom console in japan, along with ni no kuni. Japan is going to be huge for PS3 this year, and there is uncharted 3 to rival forza and halo. Gears will do good nos no doubt about it.

With a price cut, the 360 will at the most equal PS3 during the holidays. Kinect isn't going to sell consoles as much as it will sell itself during holidays.

hell yea i forgot about FFXIII-2 and ni no kuni! with those 2 games/bundles sony should pull 2011 of nicely. wht month do they come out. 

December, I think.

looks like sony ps3 could have there first win in Dec. this gen if they are



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Allfreedom99 on 19 September 2011
mantlepiecek said:
Allfreedom99 said:
mantlepiecek said:
Allfreedom99 said:

Its at 1.6 ratio right now, but my intuition says it will be less than 1.6 ratio by end of 2011. One main reason is the X360 exclusive title releases (Gears 3, Forza 4, Halo: Anniversary), plus the custom consoles (Gears console, MW3 console, and possibly one more since the Star Wars console will release next year), and lastly the Kinect holiday boost and Kinect titles. Those 3 main factors will keep PS3 from outselling X360 this holiday season IMO.

If MS includes a price cut then the scenario changes and X360 outsells PS3 by wide margins during the holiday months, but it is fair to say that is speculation since there have been no announcements. I personally think some kind of cut will occur however before the major holidays. Even without a price cut from MS my intuition is telling me the PS3 will not stay at 1.6, but will decrease from that number by end of 2011.


People are forgetting final fantasy 13-2 and its custom console in japan, along with ni no kuni. Japan is going to be huge for PS3 this year, and there is uncharted 3 to rival forza and halo. Gears will do good nos no doubt about it.

With a price cut, the 360 will at the most equal PS3 during the holidays. Kinect isn't going to sell consoles as much as it will sell itself during holidays.

I can see where you are coming from through most of your post, but if you are saying that a price cut for X360 would "At most equal" holiday sales figures of PS3 then I would very much disagree with you. A X360 price cut for the holidays would boost sales by very large margins and I wager would sell significantly more than its competition.

I guess it depends upon the price cut. If its equivalent to the PS3's cut, then I believe it will only sell similar to PS3.

I respect your opinion but I have to majorly disagree. If a $50 price cut took place across the board for all X360 models I think we would see huge sales boosts. The cuts would push X360 sales ahead of PS3 sales during the holiday months and into 2012. I will say its possible that PS3 would stay ahead in sales for 2011, but I think the ratio would become very very close. X360 would actually have a shot of being in first for the year in terms of consoles.




MARCUSDJACKSON on 19 September 2011
Allfreedom99 said:
CGI-Quality said:
Allfreedom99 said:
CGI-Quality said:
Allfreedom99 said:

Its at 1.6 times right now, but my intuition says it will be less than 1.6% by end of 2011. One main reason is the X360 exclusive title releases (Gears 3, Forza 4, Halo: Anniversary), plus the custom consoles (Gears console, MW3 console, and possibly one more since the Star Wars console will release next year), and lastly the Kinect holiday boost and Kinect titles. Those 3 main factors will keep PS3 from outselling X360 this holiday season IMO.

If MS includes a price cut then the scenario changes and X360 outsells PS3 by wide margins during the holiday months, but it is fair to say that is speculation since there have been no announcements. I personally think some kind of cut will occur however before the major holidays. Even without a price cut from MS my intuition is telling me the PS3 will not stay at 1.6, but will decrease from that number by end of 2011.

Forza and Halo nwon't really do much, but Gears 3 will next week and Kinect will in the Americas. Not sure if that can top  EMEAA + Japan for PS3, however.

True to an extent. Gears and Kinect will be the main driving force of console sales increases as well as the custom consoles. Thats not to say Forza and Halo Anniversary won't do anything. They will give some console sales boosts upon their release. My intuition is that we will see huge sales increases in Americas and significant sales increases in EMEAA for the holiday months. I expect PS3 sales to have increases in all regions, but all in all I think we will see the 1 to 1.6 ratio of console sales decrease by years end. This means I think WW the x360 major boost in Americas and significant boost in EMEAA will have just slightly more sales numbers than PS3 numbers world wide for holiday season. Indeed it is just my opinion, but I feel that the X360 exclusives, Kinect, and custom consoles will have slightly more of an effect from a marketing standpoint which translates into slightly more sales.

Edit: this scenario is with no X360 price cut. With a price cut and whole different ball game.

You're crediting the 360 while leaving the PS3 dry. What about Uncharted 3's release? Final Fantasy XIII-2's custom bundle? Ni No Kuni's custom bundle? White, European PS3? Red & Bue Japanese PS3s? All will give mild to substantial boosts (mainly in the Americas for Uncharted & Japan for everything else). Yes the 360 will have boosts as well, but the significant ones will be Gears 3 and Kinect. It's anyone's guess, but the PS3's price cut should keep it ahead, especially in EMEAA, where the ratios probably won't be as close as you think.

I do agree that PS3 will sell very well this holiday. It will have some great sales numbers. I'm just saying that from my standpoint it looks like MS has themselves positioned pretty well. I would agree that without a X360 price cut then PS3 is far enough ahead that it will win 2011 over X360. My stance is that Microsoft's marketing strategy will at the least keep them even but I think slightly ahead of PS3 sales in the final few months of 2011. I understand I could be way off come end of the year, but I don't see PS3 maintaining the 1 to 1.6 ratio by end of this year. I honestly think 1 to 1.4 ratio is a bit high, but I can't see a 1 to 1.6 ratio being maintained at all by years end.

CGI-Quality: right on the white eropean, blue, and reds should do plenty to sell PS3right along with the  Final Fantasy XIII-2's and Ni No Kuni's custom bundle. GEARS will dominate but i think Kinect is a dead issue although it will sell very well, but not much to move hardware. 

Allfreedom99: MS has barracaded them selves in with the exclusive bundles and the best part about it is that the games they bundled sell better on there system. skyrim preoders could tell you that.

Rage is another fact i believe should be taken into account for 360. the only thing is with these bundles is tht theres a limited amount so they won't have that big of an affect on sells, but every little bit helps.



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blkfish92 on 19 September 2011

This guy is pretty much right, I mean the PS-triplet keeps winning over the 360 world wide doesn't it?



           

Allfreedom99 on 19 September 2011
blkfish92 said:
This guy is pretty much right, I mean the PS-triplet keeps winning over the 360 world wide doesn't it?

As of recently yes due to price cut. Xillia boost in Japan was shown in last weeks sales numbers. Japan PS3 sales last week's chart 65,037 (+93% Week over week). EMEAA and Americas saw slight declines of PS3 sales last week. This week  we should see PS3 sales sizeably lower than last week WW. Once Gears releases and the holiday season gets in full gear we should expect sales of  both consoles to be relatively close I would think. I expect some weeks we will see PS3 beat X360 due to exclusives, and custom consoles as well as some weeks we will see X360 beat out PS3 due to exclusives,  and custom consoles.




blkfish92 on 19 September 2011
Allfreedom99 said:
blkfish92 said:
This guy is pretty much right, I mean the PS-triplet keeps winning over the 360 world wide doesn't it?

As of recently yes due to price cut. Xillia boost in Japan was shown in last weeks sales numbers. Japan PS3 sales last week's chart 65,037 (+93% Week over week). EMEAA and Americas saw slight declines of PS3 sales last week. This week  we should see PS3 sales sizeably lower than last week WW. Once Gears releases and the holiday season gets in full gear we should expect sales of  both consoles to be relatively close I would think. I expect some weeks we will see PS3 beat X360 due to exclusives, and custom consoles as well as some weeks we will see X360 beat out PS3 due to exclusives,  and custom consoles.


I suppose the 360 and the pstriplet will be clost this holiday, but it would seem as if the pstriplet will win overall because of the price cut and possible bundles.