I think Kinect will sell just as well as last year. I agree with you about the "casual" Wii sales pattern. Low sales outside the holidays, massive spike during.
However I also feel Kinect will see a price cut to at least $120. It may also become bundled with other older Kinect games like Dance Central 1 or Kinectimals.
I feel new Kinect software will also favor quite well. I expect Dance Central 2 to outsell Dance Central 1, and I think Kinect Adventures will reach 20 million sales total.
What is with all the hate? Don't read GamrReview Articles. Contact me to ADD games to the Database 
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