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Forums - Sales - If blu-ray wins? Will it affect the console war?

Kasz216 on 02 January 2008
rocketpig said:
Jandre02 said:
When people are forced to upgrade their TV's in 09, it may make a difference. Most people will be looking for small HDTV's, and if the PS3 can be priced below 300 by that point and play the only HD disc format, I would have to assume thats a plus.


People aren't being forced to upgrade. This is an extremely common misconception I see thrown around internet forums all the time. Cable companies are being forced to broadcast digitally and therefore SD sets will require a digital conversion box to receive a signal (already available in most every metro area already).

I haven't had an analog signal pumped into my house in damned near a decade. I first got digital cable in 1999 or about two years before I bought my first HDTV.


Not to mention most places are also being forced to give away the conversion boxes for free.  Or atleast there were adds about on TV as such.



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Avinash_Tyagi on 02 January 2008
Kasz216 said:
rocketpig said:
Jandre02 said:
When people are forced to upgrade their TV's in 09, it may make a difference. Most people will be looking for small HDTV's, and if the PS3 can be priced below 300 by that point and play the only HD disc format, I would have to assume thats a plus.


People aren't being forced to upgrade. This is an extremely common misconception I see thrown around internet forums all the time. Cable companies are being forced to broadcast digitally and therefore SD sets will require a digital conversion box to receive a signal (already available in most every metro area already).

I haven't had an analog signal pumped into my house in damned near a decade. I first got digital cable in 1999 or about two years before I bought my first HDTV.


Not to mention most places are also being forced to give away the conversion boxes for free.  Or atleast there were adds about on TV as such.


 $40 dollar rebate coupons for conversion boxes



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

Profcrab on 02 January 2008
TheBigFatJ said:

Profcrab said:

I still think both BR and HD-DVD are going to be very minor formats for a long time. DVDs are cheaper and no less convenient. Also, many older movies just don't benefit from HD.


I quoted the first part truth: yes DVDs will continue to dominate for a long time. And for reasons mentioned above (people don't know DVD isn't high def, don't know what Blu Ray or HD-DVD is, don't want to pay more for media, etc) DVD will continue to dominate.

However, the second part -- "older movies just don't benefit from HD" is completely untrue. Many older movies were recorded on 35mm film, which resolves a *lot* more detail than 1980x1080.

In terms of resolution, 35mm is vastly superior to 1080p. It is possible to transfer a movie well from its original format to HD discs. However, the results will depend a lot on its original production values as well as the quality of the transfer itself. It's possible to use bad film or record under terrible lighting conditions, of course. HD isn't very high resolution compared to 35mm film, though.

A review of casa blanca from 1942:

http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/498/casablanca.html

The reviewer gave the video quality 5-stars -- sure, it's not widescreen, but it was a good transfer from the source film and it was a high production value movie. There isn't a technical reason why older movies don't have fantastic results on 1080p, especially since 1080p is such low resolution compared to the source.

They gave 4.5 stars to The Adventures of Robin Hood (1938).  It's even in color!


I knew I should have made that last comment a little clearer.  While almost any movie can be made to look much clearer with an HD makeover, the value of seeing many movies in HD is lost.  Comedies are a good example.  Not many commedies will become funnier in HD.  I don't see much of a reason to repurchase any of the commedies I have on DVD on BR or HD-DVD.  I can see maybe rebuying some movies that thrive on special effects and a few beautiful period pieces, but most commedies, dramas and even older action movies just aren't worth the extra expense.  The DVDs are cheaper, just as convenient, and also in widescreen.  That is why I said that most movies don't benefit from HD.  They look great on an HDTV with an upscaling DVD player.



Thank god for the disable signatures option.

Smidlee on 02 January 2008

"They look great on an HDTV with an upscaling DVD player."
I believe that's an overstatement. It may look ok but not great as upscaling DVD doesn't come close to Blu-Ray DVD.
Here is a quote from an article relating to upscaling:


"Despite some of the marketing hype claiming that upscaling will make your DVDs appear in true high-def quality, the increase in picture quality will never come close to matching that of native HD material (HDTV broadcasts, HD DVD, and Blu-ray). Moreover, the video quality improvement is completely dependent on how good the upscaling and deinterlacing technology in your TV already is. Every HDTV is already capable of upscaling and deinterlacing; the only benefit an upscaling DVD player can bring to the table is to do it better. In some cases, the difference is easily discernible. In others, it's much more subtle. Ultimately, an upscaling DVD player might be able to make your DVDs look better, but the difference will be worth it only to "critical viewers" who pay close attention to image quality."
Playing DVD on my PS2 (TV doing the upscaling) looks about the same as with PS3 upscaling.



HappySqurriel on 02 January 2008

A consideration ...

DVD was the previous fastest adopted movie format because it was released in 1996 and in 2003 it finally represented more than 50% of movie rentals; I believe it passed 50% of movie sales in 2002 but can't find a reference for that.

Blu-Ray and HD-DVD were released in 2006 and if they followed the same growth rate of DVD they would represent 50% of rentals and/or sales well after this generation is over.

Now, if some people got their wish and HD-DVD was erased off the face of the earth tomorow the PS3 would benefit from Blu-Ray's victory but not to the extent some people would expect. The inclusion of Blu-Ray should ensure some level of stability in the sales of the PS3 because, after all, if the PS3 didn't get a single exclusive game from now on it would still have a healthy future in playing multiplatform releases and Blu-Ray movies; unfotunately, very soon Blu-Ray players will be less expensive than a PS3 so it will not sell as a Blu-Ray player to many people in the future.



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Gamerace on 02 January 2008

IF Blu-ray wins this year, which is still a big IF, then yes, it'll help Sony sell a few more systems since people will be better able to justify it's cost to themselves. But at this point, I don't think it'll be a significant factor anymore.



 

twesterm on 02 January 2008
Kasz216 said:
Packet said:
eugene said:
Not unless DVD's go away. People still seem indifferent to HD and not really see the advantages of it. Even if it beats HD DVD, Unless studios drop DVD format in favor of blueray of being the absolute only standard, it will mean nothing. Also the PS3 will still have to get to a mass market price of under $199.

Consumers are migrating from DVD->BluRay at a faster rate than they did in the VHS->DVD transition.

The only people who make this 'no one cares' argument are Xbox/HD-DVD supporters who have accepted the death of the format and now wish no one wins.

 

 

 

Uh.... Proof? Last i saw it was the exact opposite. Blu-ray sales just recently passed VHS sales afterall.

 


 What are you talking about, proof?  This is the internet: you don't need such silly things when you have forum posts and word of mouth from completely random unknown anonymous to rely on.



 

Profcrab on 02 January 2008
Smidlee said:
"They look great on an HDTV with an upscaling DVD player."
I believe that's an overstatement. It may look ok but not great as upscaling DVD doesn't come close to Blu-Ray DVD.
Here is a quote from an article relating to upscaling:

"Despite some of the marketing hype claiming that upscaling will make your DVDs appear in true high-def quality, the increase in picture quality will never come close to matching that of native HD material (HDTV broadcasts, HD DVD, and Blu-ray). Moreover, the video quality improvement is completely dependent on how good the upscaling and deinterlacing technology in your TV already is. Every HDTV is already capable of upscaling and deinterlacing; the only benefit an upscaling DVD player can bring to the table is to do it better. In some cases, the difference is easily discernible. In others, it's much more subtle. Ultimately, an upscaling DVD player might be able to make your DVDs look better, but the difference will be worth it only to "critical viewers" who pay close attention to image quality."
Playing DVD on my PS2 (TV doing the upscaling) looks about the same as with PS3 upscaling.

 I never said they look the same as an HD format, but they still look great.  If you owned Animal House on DVD though, would you go buy it for Blu-Ray?  What about Spaceballs, One That Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, Better Off Dead, Citizen Kane, Psycho, The Usual Suspects, A Clockwork Orange, M, Chinatown, or many other older comedies, drama's, and older movies.

No, upcaling something doesn't make pixels appear that the DVD didn't have the capability of displaying before, but it still looks great.



Thank god for the disable signatures option.