richardhutnik said:
Kasz216 said:
Except Reagan's deficits are exactly why the economy started going south near the end of his term and during Bush's term. (The good Bush.)
Aside from which, they were fighting the cold war. Hence why it wasn't a bad move politically... and the deficits weren't nearly as bad.
That's one thing I always found funny though. People who count WW2 as Keynsian economics... but don't count the Cold War.
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Gee, whatever happened to "the peace dividend"? It went up in smoke, due to an economic slowdown that was dwarfed by what we have now and also said "Muslim menace" that was made out to be far worse than the "Russian menace" back in the Cold War. A crisis is used to justfiy everything.
Apparently people who have been schooled in only Keynsian economics (with no exposure to the Austrian criticism), fail to see what stimulus effect running deficts have on the economy. When times were good or better, there was time to get the deficit paid down so you can run deficits in times of a large scale slowdown, as it is now, to help a country retool itself for the future. But heck, in the long-run everyone is supposed to be dead anyhow (Keynes).
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Well, as Keynes himself said
"I find myself more and more relying for a solution of our problems on the invisible hand which I tried to eject from economic thinking twenty years ago."
Every single attempt at a stimulus has always had the same keynsian statement afterwords. "It wasn't big enough."
Focusing on the single datapoint where a stimulus did "work". World War 2.
Oddly enough i can't find a good explination WHY WW2 got us out of the great depression, other then... "It did."
At best guess I would have to think it was that WW2 greatly crushed imports coming into the United states, and greatly increased exports via us selling guns to our neighbors. In otherwords, nothing to do with actual government spending.
Regardless, if somewhow it was government spending that did the trick apparently we'd need to be spending between 39% and 45% of GDP to get out of a recession... for extended periods of time. (39% i believe being our spending vs GDP during the high point of the stimulus.)
That's just... impossible basically. Considering we've gotten more socialized since WW2, actually that 45% high end, probably isn't the high end anymore, and infact would probably need a much higher number. Before WW2, Goverment spending as a part of GDP was around 10%.
Now it's 20-25%, so does that mean we'd need to spend 55%-60% GDP to get the economy back on track?
How was the average person's life in WW2 for that matter. From what i've heard it didn't sound too prosperous. If anything, it'd seem like the only thing WW2 did, is what deficit spending does in a smaller degree... mask the underlying indicators of the economy so it becomes unreadable.
Just how buying your friends dinner at your own restruant constantly masks your revenue flow... you can boost aggregate demand all you want... G isn't going to increase C. So once G dries up....