Apple could sell up to 100 million of its upcoming iPhone 5 handsets, according to projections from a market research company, raising questions about how Apple could achieve those numbers and what factors could stand in its way.
Finland-based Asymco based its projections on compiled data of monthly sales for all four iPhone models, noting how every model of the Apple iPhone doubles production and sales of the previous generation. The current iPhone 4 is set to sell around 60 million units by the time its successor is rolled out.
The projection of 100 million iPhone 5 units sold is provocative, but the story underlying the figure offers an interesting snapshot of the opportunities and challenges Apple faces as it gears up to release the iPhone 5. Asymco looked at sales numbers to "build up a model of production ramps and look for patterns of growth," but it also needed to consider Apple's production data, especially since demand usually far outstrips sales for the company.
"In Apple's case we know from company statements that Apple faces more demand than it can supply," said Horace Dediu, Asymco's founder and managing director, on the company's website. "In other words, the logical way to forecast Apple's iPhone sales is to guess how many they can make."
But with Apple's production as the biggest factor impacting the number of units it can sell, it follows that it will be particularly vulnerable to disruptions in the supply chain, especially those brought on by the recent earthquake and tsunami in Japan, expected to significantly impact the technology industry.
While Apple has struck supplier deals that give it preference in obtaining components, some necessary parts may not be available, which could hamper the iPhone 5's release this year and slow its sales.
Already the device, reported to have entered trial production, may be delayed from its traditional summer release. The tight-lipped company usually introduces the new iPhone at its developer conference in June, but this year's event is said to be firmly focused on software, indicating that the company may wait to roll out the handset till fall.
Beyond supply chain issues, other pressures that Apple could face include the dearth of iPhone carriers, especially on a global level. In the U.S., the iPhone is carried on Verizon and AT&T, representing approximately two-thirds of the market. But in China, a major focus of Apple's future growth, the iPhone is available only through China Unicom, which accounts for about 20 percent of wireless subscribers in the country, indicating that the company needs more carrier partners worldwide to grow.
The handset's high price point may also limit its sales growth in the lower-end of the handset market. Google's Android OS has found a home in this sector, which is only set to grow, with an estimated half a billion new smartphone users expected to buy phones in the next two years, according to Asymco.
Apple has indicated that the company was "not ceding any market," according to Apple operating officer Tim Cook, and didn't want its products to be "just for the rich." But the company has not yet created an offering for this end of the market, despite rumors of a lower-priced iPhone, indicating a challenge as well as an opportunity for the company.
Asymco's projections also assumed that the demand for iPhone will continue to be on the upper side of the scale, in spite of increasing competition from Windows Phone 7, Android, WebOS and other platforms. Those players will certainly not remain static, with HP scaling developer efforts on its WebOS platform, Windows Phone 7 rolling out on Nokia handsets as part of Microsoft's partnership with the Finnish maker and Research in Motion set to revitalize its BlackBerry line.
One hundred million iPhone 5 sales is an eye-catching number, and there is no doubt that consumer demand for Apple's products is high and will likely continue to grow. Achieving those numbers will be a complex task, with challenges and opportunities on many fronts.
http://www.mobiledia.com/news/85624.html
______________________________________________
AMAZING!! Apple will be the world's most profitable company soon, outpacing EXXON.
IMO - Kinect's 8 million sold in 2 months world record will be DESTROYED by iphone 5's gargantuan sales
IMO - The PS VITA faces the most sales challenges because it will be releasing late in the year, with limited supply at a high price (for a handheld)
Nintendo is getting a jump start on iphone 5 & vita by cutting 3ds price 80$
________________________________________________
