I say July 2008. The month after MGS4 comes out.

Anyone wants to guess?

Bold statement. Not John L. bold, though :) Certainly, sometime this year. Before Nov, I guess, but not sure how much before Nov.

Flame

July 2008? 7 months from now?

Let's just look at this reasonably. If the Wii and the Xbox 360 completely stop selling today they would end up with 19.5 + 16.05 = 35.55

In order for that to comprise 70% marketshare the market would have to be 50.8 million and the PS3 would have to have a userbase of 15.25.

It'll end the year with about 9 million LTD meaning by July it would have to sell 6.25 million units the year after it sold 8 million all year?

Not gonna happen. Even if PS3 sales go crazy and it sells that 6.25 million by July I have a gut feeling the Wii and the Xbox 360 will also sell a few units before then. Even November is pushing it as even though I do believe the PS3 will sell above 7 million by November once again the 360 and Wii will keep on selling tempering how good the PS3 could possibly do.

Realistically speaking if the Wii momentum collapses from the sellout fever now and it sells 10 million this year and ends with 30 million and 360 flatlines and sells ~7 million and ends with 23.5 million you would have 53.5 million Wii60 userbase. That would mean PS3 would need to have 23 million to get to 30% by the end of the year.

So just to recap that last paragraph Wii sells 10 million, 360 sells 7 million, and PS3 sells 14 million in '08 for PS3 to get to 30%. Does anybody reasonably expect that to happen?

I'm sorry but just like overtaking the 360 WW a 30% marketshare for Sony is more than likely out of reach till '09.

Ps3 will have 25% share by then!

i say may 2008 sony sadly will have a great push i believe

azrm pretty much sums this prediction up, clearly you didn't look at the numbers krik.

Koopa have you even skimmed my post? May 2008 is quite impossible. The math is quite clear. The fastest way for PS3 to get 30% share is if 360 and Wii magically stop selling and PS3 sells 6.25 million units.

Keep in mind that doesn't mean that if PS3 does the unthinkable and simply outsells the Wii and the 360 by 6.25 by 5/08, it means that at current Wii/360 sales it needs to get 6.25 million more. If it outsells them by 6.25 million but they sold 5 million in the same timeframe it still won't be 30% marketshare.

next week

Well for this to happen of course 360 would have to sell either a consistent 30% worldwide, or less.

But where sales are going to have to fall for 360 are in America. Something has to change there, for it to start selling less than 30%. AS it has enough sales in Europe/Other and Japan with its America to retain above 30%. Unless of course Wii and PS3 start selling more in America and continue to push it out in Europe/other.

This theory is reasonable, but tough to put an exact date on it, as PS3 isn't showing any signs whatsoever of knocking 360 out of a #2 spot, or even gaining ground in America.

If I had to take a preliminary guess I'd say somewhere in late 2008.