tracking (sorry to do that again, dropped of my buddy ^^)
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tracking (sorry to do that again, dropped of my buddy ^^)
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Baalzamon said: Unvote My logic was flawed before, as Wonk proved. I honestly don't know what to think anymore. If Heph lied about day 1, and did indeed target Trucks, then that makes absolutely no sense with today's claims. I'm beginning to think very strongly that more than 1 person lied about night 0. |
You initial vote was very presumptuous and lacking in a thought out map of the events, specifically that you only considered two people could possibly have lied.
Additionally, "I don't know what to think anymore" is a common mafia tell, ff himself exhibited it a couple games ago, saying he was "confused" and "unsure". I even used it myself several times. Oftentimes, it makes sense to use as it's a semi good cover for a lie. I'm not 100% confident that you are the mafia, and I'd rather take another death before I make my decision since if you aren't the mafia, and are either the doc or rb, then the chances are very slim for survival, either 33% or 50%, I'm not sure.
Tonight, though, with a no lynch, our chances for survival are between 33-66.7%. I feel a no lynch is the safest, smartest bet, but I may end up voting if things make sense enough.
I do agree that I think Heph lied, and it's possible he didn't do anything last night as well. But I disagree that he targeted the same person on night one. I'll explain after the game since it's a bit meta, but I think it's very likely that the two killers targeted seperate people night 0.
Also, FoS on FF for taking a quick move on Baal for what COULD very well be a fuck-up.
NIGHT 0
Prof->Heph
Baal->Heph
Trucks->Baal
FF-> Baal
Heph-> FF
targets: Trucks
NIGHT 1
Baal-> FF
Prof->FF
Trucks->Heph
FF->Prof
Heph-> ?
Targets: Heph
1.
Baal-killer targets Heph (said he was too scared to lie [about night 1])
Prof-vanilla
Trucks- RB, blocks Baal
FF-doc protects Baal
Heph-killer, targets Trucks?
N1
Baal- killer, targets Heph
Prof- vanilla
Trucks- RBs Heph
FF- Docs Prof
Heph- ?
This is a possible solution
I've really got to go through the option but it will take a lot of time..
theprof00 said:
You initial vote was very presumptuous and lacking in a thought out map of the events, specifically that you only considered two people could possibly have lied. Additionally, "I don't know what to think anymore" is a common mafia tell, ff himself exhibited it a couple games ago, saying he was "confused" and "unsure". I even used it myself several times. Oftentimes, it makes sense to use as it's a semi good cover for a lie. I'm not 100% confident that you are the mafia, and I'd rather take another death before I make my decision since if you aren't the mafia, and are either the doc or rb, then the chances are very slim for survival, either 33% or 50%, I'm not sure. Tonight, though, with a no lynch, our chances for survival are between 33-66.7%. I feel a no lynch is the safest, smartest bet, but I may end up voting if things make sense enough. I do agree that I think Heph lied, and it's possible he didn't do anything last night as well. But I disagree that he targeted the same person on night one. I'll explain after the game since it's a bit meta, but I think it's very likely that the two killers targeted seperate people night 0. Also, FoS on FF for taking a quick move on Baal for what COULD very well be a fuck-up. |
FF got bumped :P
I feel confident with my vote on baal. It could very well be wrong but I currenlty would rather go by the simple solution. The one with the fewest lies. I could try for many senarios that have a combination of people lying, but then there are many posiblbities and we could pick the wrong one. I'm going by the simplest. If you find a simple solution I missed that points to someone other than baal, then do please share it.
Now if I am wrong and it's not baal, we will still have a RB and/or a doc and who will hopefully be able to figure out who is who and get us through the night. Then tomorrow knowing baal's role hopefully figuring out if it is you or trucks as the killer.
ok simplest possibility of it to be TOS
Night 0:
Heph lied about night 0 are targeted TOS. TOS lied about targeting baal and also targeted Heph and heph was protected. OR Prof or Baal lied and the one of them that is the roleblocker either targeted trucks stoping the kill. Or they blocked the townie while I protected baal.
NIght 1:
Heph didn't target anyone night 1 so there could only be one kill. TOS killing Heph
simplest for prof
prof lied and targeted TOS night 0 baal RB Heph I am doc TOS is Townie
night one prof kills Heph with Heph also in this scenario targeting no one Baal RB me form protecting prof and TOS is still a Townie.
compared to these I think my baal scenario is best
now although I know I didn't lie I am curious as to how many lies the rest of you would have to believe took place to think I am the killer.
Night 0 prof or baal RB Heph and I "kill" TOS
Night 1 I kill Heph with Prof or Baal not actually targeting me like they said they did. WIth the RB targeting Heph the one targeting me being the Doc and Heph targeting me or heph targeting no one.
so no more than for prof or TOS but more than baal
TOS and Baal haven't posted in here in about a day while they have posted elsewhere in the last hour. It even says both are currently online.
Wonktonodi said: TOS and Baal haven't posted in here in about a day while they have posted elsewhere in the last hour. It even says both are currently online. |
I haven't started my chart yet to figure out how everything would work out if 2 people are lying. Until that is done, there is nothing else to say, because either Heph didn't target anybody last night, or more than 1 person is lying.
Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.
Wonktonodi said: TOS and Baal haven't posted in here in about a day while they have posted elsewhere in the last hour. It even says both are currently online. |
Frankly I don't have much to say. We have too many variables to figure out what really happened. That's what I'm thinking right now.
Also, now that the Vigilante is dead, we can vote No Lynch today and be assured we'll see tomorrow. If we lynch today, there's a good chance the game will end tonight.
Vote: No Lynch
Signature goes here!
Ok, figuring out all the possibilities if 2 people lied is proving more difficult and much more time consuming than I thought it would, not to mention, I have shown that I always seem to forget things when I do those analysis charts.
Similar to what ToS said, a no lynch vote today gives us another day of information. It guarantees that we will not lose tonight.
Vote: No Lynch
Even though I will still try to do my full analysis chart (for my own purposes for a night decision), I really don't think it is absolutely crucial that it gets finished during the day, since my guesses are the information will be vague since there are so many possibilities.
Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.