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Forums - Sales Discussion - 360 Numbers don't add up!

Monty said: Just to clarify one thing... it took the Xbox 19 months to reach the 10 million shipped level. The 360 did it in 13... tying the PS2 as the fastest to reach the 10 million mark. The 360's sales are not behind the Xbox, and at this point aren't behind anybody's sales figures for a launch. While it's HIGHLY unlikely it will match the PS2's total in the end (beyond unlikely, actually), it will clearly sell at least double of the Xbox 1 or GameCube, and I doubt many people here would argue that. And, I'll gladly take a bet with you if you don't think it'll outsell the Xbox 1!
No. It did not do this so much sooner. Here is an article from sales thru September of last year. 360 surpassed Original box in October. http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14095 Thats stats from analysts who follow this info. And it's not ahrd to see why. When original box launched they sold 1.5 million units in November/December in the US in 2001. In 2005 November/December they only sold 600,000 units. (These are US sales of course), but that's a lot of units to catch up. And eventually they did. But not until recently. For a comparison according to NPD reports Original Box sold 470,000 November 2002 (year after launch). 360 511k November 2006 (year after launch). It's not as though it's blowing the original figures away.



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Monty said: Well, to shed a little light on how vgcharts comes up with its figures, I'm attempting to do a little research on his earlier posts over at the GAF forums. Apparently, he feels NPD under-reports figures (which most agree, with some saying up to 20% of the actual figure), and figured out a calculation based on something to do with when the new model PStwo was released, the old inventory left over, and the NPD stats to that point. So, he doesn't have any exact figures either, and uses a simple formula that he came up with to compute NA... based on under-reporting of NPD and a guestimate of Canada's sales. I didn't see anything for accounting for Mexico's sales. And, I think where the biggest error is - as you pointed out Erik - is that the 360 has launched in a lot more minor countries then the Wii or PS3. It's likely that the 360 is getting the short end of the stick (as you say) because of if. If he is using the EXACT same formulas for each console, then that most definitely would not be fair, and you'd either be severly under-reporting the 360's numbers, or over reporting the other consoles as they are not on level playing fields in terms of their launches.
Wii launch: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_launch Xbox360 launch: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360_launch The Wii was available in brazil BEFORE the 360...



Stromprophet said: No. It did not do this so much sooner. Here is an article from sales thru September of last year. 360 surpassed Original box in October. http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14095 Thats stats from analysts who follow this info. And it's not ahrd to see why. When original box launched they sold 1.5 million units in November/December in the US in 2001. In 2005 November/December they only sold 600,000 units. (These are US sales of course), but that's a lot of units to catch up. And eventually they did. But not until recently. For a comparison according to NPD reports Original Box sold 470,000 November 2002 (year after launch). 360 511k November 2006 (year after launch). It's not as though it's blowing the original figures away.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but didnt the original xbox have a price cut before then? if that was the case, then you could pretty much argue that the 360 is "blowing the original figures away". x360 sales would probably increase from a price-cut. if the original didnt have the price cut until later, then ignore this post, I'm too freeking lazy to check now that I'm done writing this.



Alvar said: Stromprophet said: No. It did not do this so much sooner. Here is an article from sales thru September of last year. 360 surpassed Original box in October. http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14095 Thats stats from analysts who follow this info. And it's not ahrd to see why. When original box launched they sold 1.5 million units in November/December in the US in 2001. In 2005 November/December they only sold 600,000 units. (These are US sales of course), but that's a lot of units to catch up. And eventually they did. But not until recently. For a comparison according to NPD reports Original Box sold 470,000 November 2002 (year after launch). 360 511k November 2006 (year after launch). It's not as though it's blowing the original figures away. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didnt the original xbox have a price cut before then? if that was the case, then you could pretty much argue that the 360 is "blowing the original figures away". x360 sales would probably increase from a price-cut. if the original didnt have the price cut until later, then ignore this post, I'm too freeking lazy to check now that I'm done writing this.
It did have a price cut after 6 months (in May of 2002) to $199. Anyhow, my original statement still stands and was correct... The Xbox 360 shipped 10 million in 13 months, the Xbox 1 did so in 19 months. Actually, upon checking it was closer to 21 months... they announced in July 2003 they had sold (shipped) 9.4 million units of the Xbox. That would be the 20 month mark, so it likely took 21 months. http://vgmwatch.com/?p=357



While it's a little off topic... just to hammer home HOW much better the 360 is doing than the Xbox1... the Xbox 1 reached 14.5 million on about July of 2004 (the 2 year, 20 month mark). The 360 is on pace to reach that same figure by July of 2007 (the 1 year, 20 month mark). Meaning, by July the 360 will likely be a full year ahead of the Xbox's pace. Even more amazing, is they did that without any Halo titles, which will likely come in the holiday season of 2007.



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http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14940&page=1 The NPD numbers are out console month(millions) Total(millions) PS2 1.4 37.1 xbox 360 1.1 4.5 Wii .6042 1.1 PS3 .4907 .6873 vgcharts is 5.38 with a difference of 880K That is a 16% difference. That is our 10% Canada and your 5% Mexico plus 1% for kicks.



Tabarnacos said: Wii launch: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii_launch Xbox360 launch: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xbox_360_launch The Wii was available in brazil BEFORE the 360...
Surely you can't be trying to tell me that the Wii has reached the smaller markets to the extent the 360 has? All I'm saying is that they aren't on the same playing field to be using the same formulas. One is a 1+ year old machine that is in full supply, the other is a brand spankin' new machine that is in short supply, and likely hasn't reached the WW saturation that the other has. I would also question the formula *if* it is indeed based solely on stock of the PS2/PStwo. Again, apparently he figured the US shipped total of the old PS2 (announced from Sony), subtracted the NPD total figure, and then compared the difference of that number to the remaining stock reported by Sony. That's how he figured the NPD under-reporting. It's a smart idea, but I somehow doubt it would be consistant for every console, ALSO it seems that would vary wildly depending on what stage of the life cycle the console was in.



Jack said: http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=14940&page=1 The NPD numbers are out console month(millions) Total(millions) PS2 1.4 37.1 xbox 360 1.1 4.5 Wii .6042 1.1 PS3 .4907 .6873 vgcharts is 5.38 with a difference of 880K That is a 16% difference. That is our 10% Canada and your 5% Mexico plus 1% for kicks.
As stated above, I believe the person running vgcharts is accounting for a under-reporting of NPD data... not adding in stuff for Mexico. Furthermore, nobody knows when that 5.38 number is for... we're in mid-January... does that include this month at all? A few weeks ago - at the end of Dec - it was quite different.



Alvar said: Correct me if I'm wrong, but didnt the original xbox have a price cut before then? if that was the case, then you could pretty much argue that the 360 is "blowing the original figures away". x360 sales would probably increase from a price-cut. if the original didnt have the price cut until later, then ignore this post, I'm too freeking lazy to check now that I'm done writing this.
No you're right. But you also have to acknowledge original box sales were impressive considering they were going up directly against the PS2 and PS2 had all the advantages. Still the Box had pretty descent numbers in America. Box price cut cause Sony forced them to. Sony price cut the PS2 to 200 dollars.



Monty said: While it's a little off topic... just to hammer home HOW much better the 360 is doing than the Xbox1... the Xbox 1 reached 14.5 million on about July of 2004 (the 2 year, 20 month mark). The 360 is on pace to reach that same figure by July of 2007 (the 1 year, 20 month mark). Meaning, by July the 360 will likely be a full year ahead of the Xbox's pace. Even more amazing, is they did that without any Halo titles, which will likely come in the holiday season of 2007.
X360 Nov 06 567,500 3,775,500 XB Nov 02 518,000 3,930,500 This is from the graphs section of this site, for US sales. You should go use that tool and see what I'm talking about. According to US sales figures (which I assume have been documented from NPD) as of November the 360 is still not ahead of the Box. Yes, the Halo titles have not come yet, that has something to do with it certainly, that's a title a lot of fans love. You need to stop being insane and just look at those numbers. It's completely unreasonable to believe 360 is selling any different in Europe or Japan than the original which these regions (US, Japan, Europe) together account for almost all the consoles sold in the world. And just so I don't have to listen to whatever insane reason you are going to say for this, Thru today 360 has sold 320,000 in Japan, for the same time period Box sold 350,000. You can look this up on this site, the figures are reported pretty darn accurately.