Well ,what you say have some sense ,but in fact generally as a console increases its lifetime there is more stock around and more possibilities of unsold stock ...if you look at your own numbers in percentages you will see it .8 million to 10 million is a 80% of the consoles shipped sold ....while 4,5 against 6 is exactly a 75% of the consoles shipped sold .The actual numbers would be better that the end september data . Its obvious that if a shop never sells their units they wont be purchasing more ,but as the circulation of the console increases there is more and more shops and online sites that get stuck with some shipment and becasuse outside big populations end up having many consoles unsold .
By the way ,the data of the Lazard analysts was 4.5 million as cumulative total for the X360 ,not consoles sold in 2006 .That means they are refering only to the USA and we should add some 450 00-500 000 consoles for Canada and Mexico for around 5 million total ,in wich case vfgcharts would be really close or if he was refering to all NA then vgcharts is actually giving the X360 a great benefit of the doubt in the december data ..it could be in excess of around 700 000 consoles .Other take would be that mexico absorbs other 200 000 consoles and Lazar refered to 4,5 million only in US .. in that case vgcharts numbers would be nearly exact . I laughed a lot when I saw the information about nextgenwars .....to think there are actually tons of trolls posting as signature a link to that page to "show " what they would wish was happening is really a lot of fun ...
M$ has shipped a ton of unsold consoles. I'll give you one evidence. Blue Dragon shipment to Japan. They had over 100,000 consoles available for that deal at launch and they sold what 30,000? 35,000? That 100,000 was in addition to what they already ship there monthly. That's way over what they actually were able to sell in Japan in December. Right now it is a marketing tactic for M$, and they are trying to inflate their numbers. Just like Nintendo will, and Sony will too once both of those stop selling out when they make shipments. They will ship more than there is demand for and start saying they have shipped or sold that many.
The shops order tons of consoles for the christmas period ...if all goes well and they sold everything they would command more in january if not there isnt so much of a problem they will sell them trough the first quarter and at least they have received some incentives as rappels for purchasing a big shipment ... seeing as there are tons of consoles on the shops we have to put us in the second scenario ...they arent purchasing any more in some time to come .