To me, the real question for Cafe is the hard drive.
That will make or break the system for 3rd parties.
No HDD = no DLC (or forced on-disc DLC) = No significant stream of additional income for major publishers.
That will have a significant effect on the market. If Nintendo doesn't ensure it has the ability to expand the HDD, it will always be a crippled console for content.
Not trying to bash at Cafe, the rest is fine and looks exciting. However, next generation will be heavily online-dependent. If Nintendo doesn't offer a lot of space for content, then they aren't going to entice developers to multi-plat to their system. If they have a good, expandable HDD system (not flash unless its >32gb), then it should be very interesting and good for Nintendo.
However, given Nintendo's track record with online, I am very fearful Cafe will see a reduced market share, selling between 50m and 70m consoles.