Mafia Analysis
Zarx
The very first post he made is about how he had to swim because the bridges were blocked. Not much of a contribution, but he announced his arrival to the game pretty early.
5 hours later, Zarx returns with a single lined post telling prof that he will be watching him closely. Again, not much of a contribution. [Post Reference]
Then, nearly a day later, Zarx shows up with another non-contributing post, about throwing a party to get people to the thread. :/
Maybe I'm being too harsh on him for not contributing, but with discussions going on about Notstan's comments, the whole discussion related to stefl's extremely simplistic question and all, he really had nothing better to say ?
But to be fair to Zarx, he does like role playing. In the DBZ game he played, he made a LOT of quotes from the series, and enjoyed himself I guess and he was pro-town. I'm not implying that he is pro-town in this game as well, but its not new for him to take a step further than most with the role playing.
Next, Zarx gives us an idea of his experience with GTA IV. Which seems to suggest that he isn't too familiar with the game at all.
Then, Zarx seems to be annoyed that Stefl called out for him to contribute more, and counters Stefl's vote on him witha FoS. This comes off as a bit defensive to me. What do you guys think ? [Post Reference]
Then he proceeds to tell stefl that everyone's behaviour on day 1 seemed natural except for his. Stefl's aggression could be a scum tell according to zarx. (maybe this hit a soft spot on stefl, and thats why he is so forward to get zarx lynched ?). zarx says that he doesn't have enough data to anaylze anyone at this point.
Afterwards, during the whole Linkz PM fiasco, Zarx gets into the discussion for the first time really by commenting on something that wasn't directed at him which isn't a joke by pointing out how he thinks linkz' 2nd PM is fishy.
The next post Zarx makes after a good while is this [Post Reference] -
"How long is it until the end of the day anyway?"
As I consider it, anyone eager to get the day to end is either scum or pro-town excited about his night action. But if I had to choose either of those profiles for zarx, it'd be the former because of his low contribution. As vette pointed out, later on, Zarx is an active lurker for the most part in this game.
In his next 2 posts, zarx brings up linkz' 2nd PM again.
Afterwards, zarx proceeds to HoS link and not vote for him, because he is against day one lynches, but wants other people's opinions on the matter. In his next post, zarx says that even though linkz is the most suspicious he doesn't want to lynch him.
Zarx, IIRC, is one of the few people who never voted for lynch. Maybe its his attitude towards day 1 lynches, or maybe its him trying to distance himself from having to do anything with a mislynch. Zarx wanted our opinions on how to proceed about linkz, and even though he didn't get much feedback (except maybe being called a spineless puppet by yours truly) he had made up his mind about not wanting to lynch linkz by the time he made the next post.
Imo, this looks like he is trying to blend in with the townies by HoSing him, and yet distancing himself from a possible mislynch.
After quite a long absence, zarx returns with a post where he says that he wouldn't believe linkz if he announced that he had read his PM finally. If he distrusts the guy so much, why not vote for him ?
So what exactly happens when someone who says his suspicions on Linkz is not enough to justify a vote, and refuses to believe that he would read his PM do when that person nameclaims ?
{PR}"Well shit, I am going have to think about this new info"
Think about it ? Why, if he never had any intention of voting for linkz ? The only thing he (any pretty much anyone else) had to think about it is whether his roleclaim was true or false, and how it matches up with how he has been playing (although that doesn't really apply here as linkz hadn't really read his PM). I think this post, or the way I'm reading it anyway, is a little odd.
And as Stefl continues his crusade against zarx, the guy questions stefl why he is his top suspect when there are lurkers such as "Wildvine and god of war". Maybe someone is feeling a bit insecure ? He seems to try and divert attention away to less frequent posters (yet I still maintain, with my low post count, I still made more contributions to the town than zarx did). Zarx later says that he pointed the "lurkers" out because he didn't understand why stefl didn't suspect them "at all".
Zarx is one of the early persons to vote for a time limit, again showing his impatience to end the day as mentioned earlier in this analysis.
[PR]Zarx is pointed out by stefl to be the only person who hadn't voted in the game, for which he replies with saying that he didn't want to lynch anyone, and felt that a no lynch vote was unnecessary at the time. Yet, a few moments later, zarx votes for vetteman out of the blue, as he had shown little interest in him before (vetteman isn't in the "lurkers" he pointed out for example).
[PR]This could be to try and counter stefl's suspicions on him ? Zarx feels threatened when someone votes or suspects him even when he was pro-town (DBZ game) so I'd say he would've done this under pressure from stefl, so I'm not sure if its scum or pro-town here. But it could also mean zarx was trying to get the lynch directed to someone else as the town were running out of lynch targets (linkz, silver-tiger, notstan).
After the vote, he gets into a little back and forth of exchanges with vetteman, he changes his vote to no lynch, and he didn't bold his vote, when vetteman makes him realize he hadn't posted much more than the one he is accusing of lurking.
Also, zarx admits to "properly" catching up to this thread. As I've said before, scum would not bother to read all posts properly.
[PR]Yet again, impatience to end the day on display
here...but right now, I can understand...nearly 1000 posts on day one O_O
So in conclusion, I think zarx is a pretty good lynch candidate.
I think I might just vote for him, based simply on his impatience to get to the night.
Vote : Zarx
This analysis made me realize a lot of things I missed out, so I urge you guys to re-check all posts of your suspects.
I'm watching Dexter right now (no that doesn't make me a serial killer....just an admirer :P), and I'll be going to sleep soon after. I'll be analyzing wildvine and vetteman tomorrow...Maybe I won't analyze stefl due to the sheer amount of posts he has. But whats notworthy about him are,
1. Refusal to vote for linkz (maybe he knows something)
2. Change in playstyle mostly
They make me suspicious.
Good night everybody.
Also - Wildvine hasn't been on for 2 whole days..
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