Player A has 3/13 odds of being scum. Then there are only 12 roles left, 2 of which are mafia, thus Player B has 2/12 odds. Multiply them together, multiply by 100 to turn it into a percentage.

ok re read the last few pages should be properly caught up now

Continue to ignore it, because there is no explanation.

I said the PM stated whether or not I would be penalized. Never did I say I absolutely would be penalized. Care to explain how you forget that since I was vague about it every single time?

That factor has nothing to do with the same players from last game.

You take a bag of balls. 4 red ones, and 9 blue ones. The 4 represent the exact players from last game. Pulling out one at a time to pick the new mafia team, what are the chances that you pick out 2 red ones, with three chances to pick?

Your stat formula is the chance for ANY two players to be mafia together. Truck and Heph, or Dsis and ABC. It doesn't take into account specific players and doesn't account for the "pool" from the previous game.

So then why'd you get a pm?

Do you realize how cagey you're being right now?

The two games are independent. It's only roles within the game that are dependent.

Player A had 4/13 odds of being mafia last round and 3/13 odds this round. Player B had 3/12 odds last time with 2/12 this time. Repeat for a 4man team this game.

Haven't I gone over this? Oh yeah, I cannot explain what ABC was thinking.

Not to interrupt, but remind me about the odds thing at the end of the game, it is starting to really really really get on my nerves.

What are the odds of that? :P Honestly I'm done with that discussion, it never was something helpful anyway.

"Furthermore, why I tried to make myself look like a bomb or vengeful townie"