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Forums - General Discussion - VGC Mafia Round 29 -Grand Theft Auto 4 edition!

NotStan on 20 May 2011
theprof00 said:
NotStan said:
theprof00 said:
NotStan said:
theprof00 said:
NotStan said:

I approve of my lynch too, know that I am town however. I am in the middle of my exams at the moment(one is 6 hours away) and quite frankly - I haven't had time to play this at all, with the interview for a job being yesterday and all, and was considering asking for a modkill as it is.

EDITED in: Just didn't want to imbalance the game by my exodus.


ok, then you wouldn't mind hammering yourself, eh?

No I would not. But I'd much rather get someone else lynched an ask for a modkill tonight.

Have yourself modkilled NOW, and we'll deal with the lynch afterwards.

That's a valid request, watch me flip town, saving you guys a mislynch. Adios.

ok nevermind, don't do it.

Wait for everyone to give a concensus.

God, if you're not a mafia....I'm just at a loss for words

Too late. I requested a modkill or replacement, it's up to ABC to decide which, I think seeing as the game panned out so far, with the lovers roleclaim etc and the possible imbalance in scum's favour incoming, it'll most likely be a replacement.



Disconnect and self destruct, one bullet a time.

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Linkzmax on 20 May 2011
theprof00 said:

Btw notstan, the odds for two players from last game being scum this game are

3 mafia this game: 18.9% chance

4 mafia this game: 33.8% chance

Odds are actually pretty high.

Where in the world did you pull these numbers from? I thought your SK killing mafia numbers were off last round too, but that was out of thread so I didn't care to check/correct.

The actual odds of 2 mafia from last game being part of a 3man mafia team is:
3/13*2/12*100=3.85%
The actual odds of 2 mafia from last game being part of a 4man mafia team is:
4/13*3/12*100=7.69%

Still fairly high, but not close to likely. Then again those are the odds of picking any two random players and them being mafia.

NotStan wanted to know odds of 2 players being mafia in both games, and even though they are different events and thus meaningless, for giggles it's 0.3% for a 3man crew and 0.6% for a 4man crew.



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theprof00 on 20 May 2011
Silver-Tiger said:
Vetteman94 said:
Silver-Tiger said:
Vetteman94 said:

Arent Lovers normally one Mafia and one Town?

No, Lovers just don't know the alignment of the other.

Treacherous lover, however,is where one is mafia and one is town.

OK, so its possible that one of you is still Mafia,  since you dont know each others alignment,  you cant specifically say the other is or is not Mafia


Technically speaking, yes, but I can't imagine ABC making Linkz a lover of me when he is scum.

You mean the guy who was saying, "oh yes, that's what I am. I was just pretending to be other things, and said I wasn't a sibling. When I said town might be better off lynching me, I was just lying". You defend his alignment so earnestly...with very little reasoning why.



zarx on 20 May 2011
Vetteman94 said:
zarx said:
Vetteman94 said:
zarx said:

I can't say NotStan is looking that scumy to me, Vett with his lurking and parroting seems like a much better target.

Vote Vetteman94

I love how parrotting has become a reason to lynch someone.  Its like if you dont have a specific reason that is unique from everyone else you are scum.  Its like its impossible for 2 people to agree on an idea as to how someone is acting, and you both cant use that reason to think someone is scum.   

As for the lurking,  it seems my definition of the word lurking is different from yours,  please explain how I am lurking?

Well you missed the first few days even tho you were on VGchartz and since then you haven't posted a lot, and most posts you have made have been in responce to someone targetting you like me voting you now. The fact that you have not posted in ages and then post imediaatly after I vote for you proves my point. The vote was a test to see if you were really lurking as in reading the thread but not posting unless adressed .

I wasnt anywhere near a computer the first 2 days.  Interestingly despite missing the first 2 days I have posted more than you have.  And of course I am going to respond to people targetting me, its is my job as a player to adress any issues someone has with me.   

My last post was 8 hours ago, I didnt realize that 8 hours is now the equivilant of ages.  But before your post response to Stefl you hadnt posted in 16 hours,  that must be an eternity.  

My advice to you is,  dont accuse someone of lurking when you are a bigger offender then they are


Oh I have been lurking I was busy last couple of days didn't have a lot of free time to spend and not of all me free time was spent on this game. I seem to have skiped over a page of this thread tho so I apologise I was in a hurry to catch up and must have skiped ahead and missed your last batch of posts.

Vote No lynch



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Linkzmax on 20 May 2011
theprof00 said:
TruckOSaurus said:
NotStan said:

Wow did you think before you even made that roleclaim? IF both of you are townies, and a townie is lynched today then we're as good as fucked. With Stump who can't vote, we'll be at 9 players with 3/4 possible scum. I really don't see why the fuck you role claimed so early, especially when effectively screwing another town player over, either this is a ploy or you really are that easy to push.

Unvote

We'll need a scum to lynch today, otherwise we lost, I'll believe the claim for now and wipe you two numb nuts off the radar, I think the next most likely scum is either Stefl or Vette, that PM slip up was odd, and as someone mentioned it before, upon re-reading my pm did I realize what happened, also where's stefl?

You conviently disappear during the shitstorm and come back once it's over acting all offended, I don't like this one bit but I do agree with you that we need to lynch scum today so:

Vote: NotStan

completely agree with this. Furthermore, I believe the aggressiveness is tied to one of those two being mafia.

A treacherous lover, for example...(Probably linkz)

You are REALLY going to have to explain how I am more probable as a treacherous lover. I'd be very interested in how everything that's happened fits with that idea.



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theprof00 on 20 May 2011
Linkzmax said:
theprof00 said:

Btw notstan, the odds for two players from last game being scum this game are

3 mafia this game: 18.9% chance

4 mafia this game: 33.8% chance

Odds are actually pretty high.

Where in the world did you pull these numbers from? I thought your SK killing mafia numbers were off last round too, but that was out of thread so I didn't care to check/correct.

The actual odds of 2 mafia from last game being part of a 3man mafia team is:
3/13*2/12*100=3.85%
The actual odds of 2 mafia from last game being part of a 4man mafia team is:
4/13*3/12*100=7.69%

Still fairly high, but not close to likely. Then again those are the odds of picking any two random players and them being mafia.

NotStan wanted to know odds of 2 players being mafia in both games, and even though they are different events and thus meaningless, for giggles it's 0.3% for a 3man crew and 0.6% for a 4man crew.

that's not how dependent stats work.



Linkzmax on 20 May 2011
Vetteman94 said:
Silver-Tiger said:
Vetteman94 said:

Arent Lovers normally one Mafia and one Town?

No, Lovers just don't know the alignment of the other.

Treacherous lover, however,is where one is mafia and one is town.

OK, so its possible that one of you is still Mafia,  since you dont know each others alignment,  you cant specifically say the other is or is not Mafia

Yes, we've been over this. It's why I said I never knew ST's alignment, but I am thinking he's town. If not, then there's a good chance ST made it obvious to his scummates that I can't be lynched for his own safety.



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theprof00 on 20 May 2011
Linkzmax said:
theprof00 said:
TruckOSaurus said:
NotStan said:

Wow did you think before you even made that roleclaim? IF both of you are townies, and a townie is lynched today then we're as good as fucked. With Stump who can't vote, we'll be at 9 players with 3/4 possible scum. I really don't see why the fuck you role claimed so early, especially when effectively screwing another town player over, either this is a ploy or you really are that easy to push.

Unvote

We'll need a scum to lynch today, otherwise we lost, I'll believe the claim for now and wipe you two numb nuts off the radar, I think the next most likely scum is either Stefl or Vette, that PM slip up was odd, and as someone mentioned it before, upon re-reading my pm did I realize what happened, also where's stefl?

You conviently disappear during the shitstorm and come back once it's over acting all offended, I don't like this one bit but I do agree with you that we need to lynch scum today so:

Vote: NotStan

completely agree with this. Furthermore, I believe the aggressiveness is tied to one of those two being mafia.

A treacherous lover, for example...(Probably linkz)

You are REALLY going to have to explain how I am more probable as a treacherous lover. I'd be very interested in how everything that's happened fits with that idea.

Ignoring that,

ABC said he would penalize roleclaimers by random.org. You said he would penalize you for roleclaiming.

Can you explain?



Linkzmax on 20 May 2011
theprof00 said:
Silver-Tiger said:

Technically speaking, yes, but I can't imagine ABC making Linkz a lover of me when he is scum.

You mean the guy who was saying, "oh yes, that's what I am. I was just pretending to be other things, and said I wasn't a sibling. When I said town might be better off lynching me, I was just lying". You defend his alignment so earnestly...with very little reasoning why.

Yeah prof, put words in my mouth.

The only role I ever outright said I was is Lover. How can that possibly be a pro-town claim without a very strong reasoning that the linked player is scum? I said town might be better off if scum hammered me, because that would out one of them. I never pretended to be a bomb or vengeful townie, I just didnt deny either so that scum would not want to hammer or kill me in case ST is also town. However, without knowing ST's alignment, my death could mean one mafia dead as well. 



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theprof00 on 20 May 2011

http://www.randomizer.org/form.htm

write down four numbers between one and thirteen.

Those are numerical representations of the mafia from last game.

Now, in sequential input spaces, type

100
3
1
13
Yes
No
Place Markers Across

I pick 1,2,3,4 for my previous 4 mafiosi

Results:

  
Set #1:

p1=7, p2=8, p3=11

      
     
Set #2:

p4=6, p5=1, p6=2

      
     
Set #3:

p7=3, p8=6, p9=9

      
     
Set #4:

p10=4, p11=1, p12=5

      
     
Set #5:

p13=7, p14=1, p15=5

      
     
Set #6:

p16=3, p17=13, p18=5

      
     
Set #7:

p19=6, p20=11, p21=4

      
     
Set #8:

p22=3, p23=1, p24=6

      
     
Set #9:

p25=9, p26=6, p27=5

      
     
Set #10:

p28=11, p29=10, p30=3

      
     
Set #11:

p31=6, p32=3, p33=2

      
     
Set #12:

p34=6, p35=9, p36=10

      
     
Set #13:

p37=10, p38=11, p39=1

      
     
Set #14:

p40=13, p41=9, p42=11

      
     
Set #15:

p43=7, p44=5, p45=13

      
     
Set #16:

p46=9, p47=2, p48=7

      
     
Set #17:

p49=12, p50=2, p51=10

      
     
Set #18:

p52=1, p53=6, p54=5

      
     
Set #19:

p55=10, p56=12, p57=6

      
     
Set #20:

p58=1, p59=10, p60=5

4 out of 20. =25%

Try it yourself if you don't believe me. It's much higher than .2%