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Forums - Nintendo - Reggie talks about Cafe and Wii price Cut

Yakuzaice said:
Joelcool7 said:

Nintendo sold 3.6 million 3DS units in its launch month and fiscal year. That is 400,000 units short of the 4-million units. You make it sound as if Nintendo should have sold more then 4-million units in one month. Sure sales right now aren't the best but Nintendo did nearly reach its projections.

Also as I said Nintendo was counting on early adopters and their loyal fanbase for sales. They didn't market the thing worth crap. If they could get those kinds of numbers without any marketing at all then when they turn up the heat and start marketing theirs no telling what they are capable of.

3DS is close to DS sales on a weekly basis and that is not half bad considering the device has no product awareness. I think when Sony launches NGP Nintendo will launch that 500-million dollar marketing campaign and kick some serious butt.

Also according to Reggie Nintendo doesn't want demand to out number supply. So Nintendo is stock piling I bet come this winter Nintendo will be ready to unleash hell on Sony!

You're talking about 'early adopters' and 'loyal fanbase', but then you are only looking at the shipped numbers.  Those people had nothing to do with the shipped numbers (well except Japan where they missed their forecast) because that was the launch shipment.  It had to do with both Nintendo and retailers being overly optimistic.

By Nintendo's own numbers, they show a sell-through of only 1.64 million (not including a handful of countries like Canada I believe), and unless the US April numbers are great, they aren't getting through that first shipment anytime soon. Both Japan and Europe showed a precarious drop after launch.  In Europe it was below the 2010 DS numbers by week two, and was down to the 2011 DS numbers by week 3.  3DS plus DS in week 3 being roughly equal to the 2010 DS numbers.  Just curious, what are you expecting the April-June shipment to be, and what do you think Nintendo expected 6 months ago?

As for Reggie's comment, do you really believe that?  That they are stockpiling for the winter in March?  I'm sure retailers would be thrilled with the idea of having stock rotting on their shelves for half a year.  Reggie's comment was just spin, plain and simple.  Of course they don't want demand to outstrip supply, but they were definitely expecting better sell-through.  If you don't believe me, here are some quotes from their investor briefing.

In reference to Japan
"The initial sales were healthy; however, the sales speed slowed down from the third week after its launch which is not what we had expected for the start-up transition."

The US
"Nintendo 3DS started very well but, on the other hand, did not perform as expected after the second week."

And Europe.
"Nintendo 3DS was launched in late March. The sales were high in the initial week, but sales fell below our expectations after the second week. Nintendo 3DS has not been selling as expected since the second week, and this is not just in the Japanese market but also in the United States and Europe, where no direct impact from the great earthquake has occurred."

I decided to check the numbers again I remember the Nintendo announcement of selling 3.6 million units. A quick google search for articles shows tons of articles saying Nintendo sold 3.6 million units. I would like to see a source saying that Nintendo only shipped 3.6-million and did not sell that many units.As far as I can tell the official sales results were 3.6 million.

As for Nintendo not meeting expectations. Falling short 400K is actually a big failure and since launch month sales have continued to dip. I think Nintendo had alot more faith in their die hard user base and early adopters then they could actually count on.

As for Reggie spinning, his statement I was refering too happened right nearby the launch. It was not a spin for damage control. I'd have to take Reggies word for it, because the facts back his story. Reggie stated that Nintendo wasn't advertising much to keep demand from surpassing supply. I fully think that this was Nintendo's strategy and he was being honest.

As I have said before Nintendo was playing with fire. In my opinion they should have launched a 500-million dollar ad campaign and market the shit out of the 3DS. Nintendo thought that demand would be high enough without a huge ad campaign.

I think with product awareness so low and sales waining that Nintendo will launch a massive ad campaign this winter to boost sales and fend off the NGP. Do I honestly think Nintendo is stock piling for this winter? Not purposely I think Nintendo honestly thought the 3DS would sell itself and that word of mouth and early adopters(Hardcore fans) would be enough to keep sales growing.

Nintendo's off to a bad start, they had a bad strategy. The question is what will Nintendo do to fix the situation. They have a great peice of hardware with the right marketing they could have another DS/Wii on their hands. Also Iwata recently talked about getting a third party to market their future devices starting soon.

It will be interesting to see how Nintendo markets the 3DS this winter!



-JC7

"In God We Trust - In Games We Play " - Joel Reimer

 

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Ail said:
kitler53 said:
alfredofroylan said:


He continued, “Typically a system peaks in the second year of availability and then gradually declines. Wii was fortunate to have a number of very strong selling years in its 3rd and 4th year of availability. And from our perspective, the curve that we’re on is natural and to be expected but importantly, the sales curve is higher than any other system.”


O_o  

hmm ...  yeah, about that.     no.


The dude has severe memory issues.

Last 2 gen the gen leader kept increasing its market share as the generation aged, not decreasing it...


Why are you acting like that is what he mean? "peak" can have several meanings from his context.



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

Joelcool7 said:

I decided to check the numbers again I remember the Nintendo announcement of selling 3.6 million units. A quick google search for articles shows tons of articles saying Nintendo sold 3.6 million units. I would like to see a source saying that Nintendo only shipped 3.6-million and did not sell that many units.As far as I can tell the official sales results were 3.6 million.

As for Nintendo not meeting expectations. Falling short 400K is actually a big failure and since launch month sales have continued to dip. I think Nintendo had alot more faith in their die hard user base and early adopters then they could actually count on.

As for Reggie spinning, his statement I was refering too happened right nearby the launch. It was not a spin for damage control. I'd have to take Reggies word for it, because the facts back his story. Reggie stated that Nintendo wasn't advertising much to keep demand from surpassing supply. I fully think that this was Nintendo's strategy and he was being honest.

Ok, so you're just messing with me right?  You've been on VGChartz for four years.  Surely you understand the difference between shipped and sold.

Here are the numbers Nintendo provided for the US and Europe.


Note only the first two weeks of the Europe numbers fall within the quarter.

We know from Media Create that the 3DS sold 835,933 units in Japan through April 3rd.  Those three together does not come anywhere close to 3.6 million.

Reggie's quote was from an article in the USA Today more than two weeks after the US launch.  By that time Nintendo was below their own expectations in all three markets.  The interviewer asked if they were 'purposefully underpromoting it' and Reggie never addressed that in his answer.



Ail said:
kitler53 said:
alfredofroylan said:


He continued, “Typically a system peaks in the second year of availability and then gradually declines. Wii was fortunate to have a number of very strong selling years in its 3rd and 4th year of availability. And from our perspective, the curve that we’re on is natural and to be expected but importantly, the sales curve is higher than any other system.”


O_o  

hmm ...  yeah, about that.     no.


The dude has severe memory issues.

Last 2 gen the gen leader kept increasing its market share as the generation aged, not decreasing it...

He probably didn't talk about market share but amount of sold units. In previous generations sales started to drop after second or third year, this generation is special in this case. Companies care much more about unit sales than market share. If sales go down, it is always a bad for a company even if market share would increase. Sure, you could sell 1 unit and have 100% market share but it is much better to have sold 10 units with 1% market share. Most companies never even talk about market share, it just isn't that important.



alfredofroylan said:


Fils-Aime also touched upon the impending announcement of their successor to the Wii, supposedly codenamed Project Café, discussing his belief that those picking up the new console are the one’s that feel the need to “have the absolute latest hardware.”


Yea, so far from the rumours we can see what Nintendo is bringing with project cafe is 2-3 year old hardware, so I don't know what he is talking about. Or is this indication that Nintendo are in fact pulling out all the stops and jam packing Cafe with the absolute latest hardware that is available is the market (or was last year) so that they can remain even somewhat competitive when MS and Sony release their next iterations.



 

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UltimateUnknown said:
alfredofroylan said:


Fils-Aime also touched upon the impending announcement of their successor to the Wii, supposedly codenamed Project Café, discussing his belief that those picking up the new console are the one’s that feel the need to “have the absolute latest hardware.”


Yea, so far from the rumours we can see what Nintendo is bringing with project cafe is 2-3 year old hardware, so I don't know what he is talking about. Or is this indication that Nintendo are in fact pulling out all the stops and jam packing Cafe with the absolute latest hardware that is available is the market (or was last year) so that they can remain even somewhat competitive when MS and Sony release their next iterations.


But competative to developers that care about specs, not gamers who've shown the take good design over anything else (why Call of Duty tears up the charts, not Crysis).



A flashy-first game is awesome when it comes out. A great-first game is awesome forever.

Plus, just for the hell of it: Kelly Brook at the 2008 BAFTAs

Yakuzaice said:
Joelcool7 said:

I decided to check the numbers again I remember the Nintendo announcement of selling 3.6 million units. A quick google search for articles shows tons of articles saying Nintendo sold 3.6 million units. I would like to see a source saying that Nintendo only shipped 3.6-million and did not sell that many units.As far as I can tell the official sales results were 3.6 million.

As for Nintendo not meeting expectations. Falling short 400K is actually a big failure and since launch month sales have continued to dip. I think Nintendo had alot more faith in their die hard user base and early adopters then they could actually count on.

As for Reggie spinning, his statement I was refering too happened right nearby the launch. It was not a spin for damage control. I'd have to take Reggies word for it, because the facts back his story. Reggie stated that Nintendo wasn't advertising much to keep demand from surpassing supply. I fully think that this was Nintendo's strategy and he was being honest.

Ok, so you're just messing with me right?  You've been on VGChartz for four years.  Surely you understand the difference between shipped and sold.

Here are the numbers Nintendo provided for the US and Europe.

 


Note only the first two weeks of the Europe numbers fall within the quarter.

We know from Media Create that the 3DS sold 835,933 units in Japan through April 3rd.  Those three together does not come anywhere close to 3.6 million.

Reggie's quote was from an article in the USA Today more than two weeks after the US launch.  By that time Nintendo was below their own expectations in all three markets.  The interviewer asked if they were 'purposefully underpromoting it' and Reggie never addressed that in his answer.

Usually when Nintendo says sold they mean sold, that's probably what threw him off in this case, as Nintendo's usually proven trustworthy on the whole shipped v. sold thing



Monster Hunter: pissing me off since 2010.

Nintendo shipped 3,6M 3DS

sales up to 30th April are

3DS 2,532,513 (-) 2,532,513

With 3DS going at <150k weekly for now they will barely reach that 3,6 milions at end of June.

 

Shipment for Q1 FY2011 might be really bad.

And they aim to ship 16 milions of 3DS in FY2011 hmm ?

 



PROUD MEMBER OF THE PSP RPG FAN CLUB

Zlejedi said:

Nintendo shipped 3,6M 3DS

sales up to 30th April are

3DS 2,532,513 (-) 2,532,513

With 3DS going at <150k weekly for now they will barely reach that 3,6 milions at end of June.

 

Shipment for Q1 FY2011 might be really bad.

And they aim to ship 16 milions of 3DS in FY2011 hmm ?

 

Software sells hardware. The early launch period didn't really have much software but starting with the summer period, it's an all out barrage of heavy hitting software.



The rEVOLution is not being televised

kitler53 said:
alfredofroylan said:


He continued, “Typically a system peaks in the second year of availability and then gradually declines. Wii was fortunate to have a number of very strong selling years in its 3rd and 4th year of availability. And from our perspective, the curve that we’re on is natural and to be expected but importantly, the sales curve is higher than any other system.”


O_o  

hmm ...  yeah, about that.     no.

hmm ... yeah, about that.    YES!

http://www.vgchartz.com/hw_annual_summary.php

Take a look for yourself.

In approx the 2nd full year of being out PS2 peaked at ~21m, GBA peaked at ~19m, DS (actually 3rd) 30m, PSP (also 3rd) 14m, and Wii 24m.... and then you have the PS360 which both are peaking later due to the other anomoly where 3rd parties aren't supporting the market leader, but instead are supporting them as a single bloc (along with PC).

EDIT: If you had further history, you could see this same typical 2nd year peak on all prevous consoles.