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Forums - Gaming Discussion - My Predictions For Next Gen (Handhelds) Updated!

thismeintiel on 01 May 2011
RolStoppable said:

The 3DS is struggling, because better graphics don't automatically translate to better games and it suffers from a too high price tag at the moment. Either the price comes down to a level that matches the value of the current software library or the library gets build up to the point that the price tag is justified. The most likely scenario is that parity will be reached once the system gets a $/€199 price tag.

The NGP will share the same exact problems once it launches, so expect a PSP vs. NGP battle similar to the one we saw with the PS2 vs. PS3. Ports of home console games aren't going to make the 3DS and NGP sell well, so banking on such ports isn't going to bring the desired results. For Sony to have a chance at 50 % marketshare they have to hope for a combination of third parties treating the 3DS like the Wii and Nintendo selfdestructing by, for example, not releasing a Super Mario Bros. game. There isn't one coming out this fiscal year, so Sony's chances for the latter to happen aren't actually that bad, but it's just a part of the equation.

While it's certainly true that Nintendo has positioned itself quite bad with the 3DS, so far there's nothing that suggests that Sony can take advantage of that. And by the time the NGP has released worldwide, the 3DS can already look back at a full year of game releases, making it look much more attractive than the NGP (which won't cost less than the 3DS) with a handful of worthwile launch titles.

I don't see the NGP facing the same problems as the 3DS.  For one, I doubt anyone will ever get confused that the NGP is just another revision of the PSP.  Second, Sony fans are used to paying more for Sony's systems for extra features and/or power.  Nintendo fans, on the other hand, have always been used to paying quite a bit less for less power under the hood and usually, but not always, less features. Third, Nintendo has let the 3DS be on the market for roughly 2 months without any real must-have titiles for it.  And as you stated, there isn't even a game from one of their biggest franchises launching for it within a year or so.

These are things Sony can take advantage of.  Sony has made sure the NGP looks different enough from the PSP that they couldn't possibly get confused.  If Sony can price the basic model of the NGP for $249-$299 (<- more likely), gamers will see it as having more value for their dollar, with it having two analog sticks and graphics comparable to the PS3, as well as many extra features.  With the ease of developing for the NGP, and the announcements at Sony's conference, its obvious that 3rd party developers are excited about making games for it.  Before we knew about the NGP, many Nintendo fans were claiming Nintendo had already stolen all the 3rd parties from Sony and they were more interested in the 3DS.  This doesn't look to be the case at all.  And we already know Sony's strength in first party studios.  I can see a Japan and NA release of the NGP this holiday season, and I'm sure Sony will make sure it has at least 2 must-have games for each region.



 

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thismeintiel on 01 May 2011
RolStoppable said:

There isn't much confusion about the 3DS at all. People know that it isn't just another DS model with 3D output, they just think it's too expensive for the games it currently offers. Your second point doesn't mean much. I have no doubts that the first one to two million hardware units will be sold within a few weeks of launch, but there's going to be a struggle after the typical early adopters got their system, because it's not like Sony and third parties will be able to release all their announced games in the launch window. Third, Nintendo has the benefit of a headstart. They have room for error that Sony has not. It's quite similar to the 360 that had no games in its first year, but that was quickly forgotten once the PS3 showed up and had no games either. Suddenly the 360 looked like a good deal.

Gamers didn't see much value in the PS3 compared to the 360 early on, despite Sony's system having more features. You see, the problems Sony is going to run into with the NGP will be similar to their problems with the PS3. If you can't list concrete announcements of third parties, then I have to assume that we are mostly talking about quick ports of PS3/360 games (especially from Western third parties). Remember, all the PS2 ports didn't really help the PSP either and most of those games didn't require a second analog stick anyway. And suddenly the initial NGP lineup won't look all too different to the currently available 3DS games: many of the good games being more or less ports.

Sony's strength in first party studios is laughable. Take a look at Sony's PSP first party games, they didn't do anything at all to move hardware. With the NGP, just like with the PSP, you got Sony's second string developers working on the games (even the big ones) and they have repeatedly proven that they can't put out games that sell three million or more over their lifetime. This certainly doesn't scream must have games will be available at launch. Sure, Nintendo won't have a Super Mario Bros. out by the time the NGP launches, but at least they are going to have several games out that are poised to sell more than Sony's biggest PSP hits (Nintendogs and Cats, The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time 3D, Mario Kart 3DS and possibly Super Mario 3DS). Remember, the NGP won't compete against the 3DS of today, but the 3DS at the time of the NGP's launch. The rocky start of the 3DS will be forgotten quickly.

No confusion?  I don't believe that for one sec.  There are plenty of people that believe that on this very site, Nintendo supporters at that.  Nintendo hasn't really done too much to show it's more than a 3D revision of the DS, yet.  I'm sure in the future they will change that, but to date most of the commercials have just shown people looking at the 3D, with little to no gameplay shown.  Maybe informed gamers like us know the difference, but your average shopper sure wouldn't. 

I think you are overrating the importance of a headstart.  This gen the 360 got a year head start, yet the Wii will win.  Last gen, the Dreamcast got a 1 1/2 years headstart, yet the PS2 won.  Two gens ago, the Saturn got a month or so headstart, yet the PS1 won.  The gen before that, the Genesis got a whopping 2 years headstart, yet the SNES won.  So headstarts really mean little, especially one that will only be ~ 7-9 months.  It all depends on price, HW appeal, and games.

So far, I don't think the NGP is getting many ports.  Most, if not all, the games announced from familiar franchises are going to be original games in the series.  The same goes for a lot the games that came to the PSP.  I hope you aren't going to knock those, while at the same time praising of those types of games coming to the 3DS.  That would be rather foolish.  Especially considering the 3DS arleady has a few ports of its own announced, and I believe Iwata said that 3DS gamers can expect a few more 3D ports.

As far as the price vs. percieved value, you are comparing the PS3, a system that launched at $499 or a full $200 more than the 360, to the NGP, a system that will probably launch for $299 or a mere $50 more than what the 3DS goes for.  There's a big difference there.  And with the added controls, power, and features, I think many aren't going to mind the extra $50 dollars.  That is if the games are there.



 

thismeintiel on 02 May 2011
RolStoppable said:
thismeintiel said:

No confusion?  I don't believe that for one sec.  There are plenty of people that believe that on this very site, Nintendo supporters at that.  Nintendo hasn't really done too much to show it's more than a 3D revision of the DS, yet.  I'm sure in the future they will change that, but to date most of the commercials have just shown people looking at the 3D, with little to no gameplay shown.  Maybe informed gamers like us know the difference, but your average shopper sure wouldn't. 

I think you are overrating the importance of a headstart.  This gen the 360 got a year head start, yet the Wii will win.  Last gen, the Dreamcast got a 1 1/2 years headstart, yet the PS2 won.  Two gens ago, the Saturn got a month or so headstart, yet the PS1 won.  The gen before that, the Genesis got a whopping 2 years headstart, yet the SNES won.  So headstarts really mean little, especially one that will only be ~ 7-9 months.  It all depends on price, HW appeal, and games.

So far, I don't think the NGP is getting many ports.  Most, if not all, the games announced from familiar franchises are going to be original games in the series.  The same goes for a lot the games that came to the PSP.  I hope you aren't going to knock those, while at the same time praising of those types of games coming to the 3DS.  That would be rather foolish.  Especially considering the 3DS arleady has a few ports of its own announced, and I believe Iwata said that 3DS gamers can expect a few more 3D ports.

As far as the price vs. percieved value, you are comparing the PS3, a system that launched at $499 or a full $200 more than the 360, to the NGP, a system that will probably launch for $299 or a mere $50 more than what the 3DS goes for.  There's a big difference there.  And with the added controls, power, and features, I think many aren't going to mind the extra $50 dollars.  That is if the games are there.

There are always Nintendo supporters who will make use of every possible excuse to defend something Nintendo related. The confusion is pretty much a non-factor, people aren't that clueless. The price alone makes people ask why the 3DS costs so much, so they are going to do the necessary research to find out why this is the case. Also, the commercials have already switched to showing off different games like Nintendogs and Cats and SSFIV.

Headstarts, as can be seen in all of your examples, can be overcome by vastly superior first and/or third party support compared to the competition. I find it hard to say that either one is going to be the case for the NGP, hence why it's doubtful that it will achieve anything close to 50 % marketshare.

Don't worry, I am not going to apply double standards to ports. My point is that if such games aren't doing much for the 3DS, they aren't going to do much for the NGP either.

Yes, the price difference between the 3DS and NGP probably won't be as glaring as between the 360 and PS3, but in the end it comes down to games anyway and newly launched system can't compete with one that has been out for almost a year, unless the system that enjoys the headstart has bad software support which isn't the case for the 3DS.

I'm not saying the confusion is an epidemic, but I'm sure there are quite a few people out there who might just see the ads on TV and/or in store and aren't interested in the 3DS, just thinking it is a new model of the DS.  And yes the commercials have started to switch.  Personally, I have only seen the SSFIV and can honestly say, if I hadn't known beforehand that the 3DS is a new system, I probably would have guessed it was only a 3D DS.  I mean I don't even think it showed much actual gameplay, mainly just the characters fighting outside the console.

I wouldn't say the Genesis was lacking on either first or 3rd party SW, and it had 2 years headstart and still lost.  NGP looks like it is set to have plenty of 1st and 3rd party support.  Actually, I see this handheld gen playing out much like that gen.  The SNES and Genesis were constantly fighting it out as the leader, with the Genesis sometimes being on top and sometimes the SNES.  It wasn't until near the end that the SNES pulled away by ~10 mil units sold and finished with ~55% marketshare.I think marketshare could end up being the same, 3DS - ~55% and NGP - ~45%.  Having an exclusive COD game for it wouldn't hurt its chances of making some big gains in Americas, either.

Like I pointed out for the Genesis, and the same goes for most of the consoles with a headstart, they don't start out with bad support.  It depends on the HW sales whether companies continue to support it or not.  And if the 3DS sales stay low for the rest of this year, some companies my hold off on supporting it until they see if it will rebound greatly in the holiday season.  But like I said in my OP, I don't see doom and gloom for the 3DS.  I'm quite sure it will end up selling fine.  But, I don't see it getting anywhere near the DS's numbers or having the nearly 70% marketshare it enjoys now.



 

Squilliam on 02 May 2011

Why bother about talking about the future success of launching games consoles? Most analysts get it wrong so why would a forum poster get it right?



Tease.

fps_d0minat0r on 02 May 2011

just because people play on ios and android, it doesnt mean they chose it over ngp or 3ds. it just means they wanted an above average phone but not specifically a gaming device. If they have an intention of buying a device primarily for gaming, theres no reason for them to chose a smartphone over ngp or 3ds.



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thismeintiel on 02 May 2011
Squilliam said:

Why bother about talking about the future success of launching games consoles? Most analysts get it wrong so why would a forum poster get it right?

Because I am an analyst.

thismeintiel = Pacther = Confirmed



 

nitekrawler1285 on 02 May 2011
HappySqurriel said:

I personally think market conditions outside of Sony's control are going to lead to significant problems for the NGP ...

The American dollar was worth (roughly) 110 to 120 yen when the PSP launched and is now worth (roughly) 80 yen today; and the decline has mostly happened in the past 2 years. It is entirely possible (and some would say likely) that the NGP will launch in North America to a dollar that is only worth 60 to 70 yen.

While it is not quite as dramatic, the Euro has fallen from 150 yen to 110 to 120 yen today; and it is also likely that the Euro will fall further.

In this economic climate you would have to design something that was very inexpensive in Japaneese terms to fall in line with the normal price range people are used to paying in North America and Europe; and I doubt that anyone would argue that the NGP seems to be designed to be a low cost system.

I could be wrong but I suspect the NGP will be the most expensive gaming system on the market, probably by a wide margin; and I wouldn't be surprised to see the NGP in a similar price range to many Tablet PCs; and I don't see how a system like that could be competitive with the 3DS.

The NGP was designed with cost in mind.  Kaz Hirai said so himself.

Building something almost as  powerful as the PS3 can be done with alot less money today.  Especially if you aren't using the same proprietary pieces.  As the screen is much smaller and it's likely to have less onboard flash storage then the ipad2 and it's specs seem similar to iPad 2 I can't see it costing more to build than that and likely less.  When I google I see estimates from $270-337 putting it right in the price range I stated.



TerminalSanity on 02 May 2011

Well quite frankly without knowing the NGP's price point and launch lineup its hard to really guess what's going happen because a price point of $300 or more for a handheld probably is going like a lead balloon no matter how good the system or its games are. Additionally the 3DS lauched with arguably only one really strong launch title as it library expands and games like the Zelda remake enter the picture coulped with the online Nintendo store providing all sorts of content when its up and running sales could pick very quickly especially as we approach the holiday season, more so if nintendo drops the price point of the 3DS by $20 to $30 right before Sony launches the NGP, like they did with the original DS when the PSP came out. There's just too many unknowns right now to call the ball but I think price point of the NGP will be single biggest factor as to whether Sony gets a bigger market share this time around lest Nintendo complletely drops the ball in the software department which I think everyone can admit is doubtful, not impossible but doubtful given their history. The way I see it if the NGP is released at under $300 Sony will have a very good chance of increasing the market share in the handheld market if the NGP is released at or above $300 Sony will struggle just to mantain the marketshare they established with the PSP.



MARCUSDJACKSON on 02 May 2011

you may be on to somehing here

the only thing Sony has to worry about is price and they may be able to market NGP as some type of PC capable device to get the notebook market!

maybe?



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Immortal on 02 May 2011

I figure Nintendo will end up with about 90% marketshare this time around. Featurewise, I don't see anything close to an advantage for NGP in terms of mass market appeal, especially if 3D catches on. Gamewise, Sony couldn't even dream to be comparable to Nintendo in handhelds. Pricewise, Nintendo wins - they're making 3DSs for $100 a pop for goodness's sake! Supportwise, NGP looks to be a few notches below PSP as far as advantage over Nintendo is concerned since the 3DS is getting good support from the start as well.



 

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