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thismeintiel on 02 May 2011
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RolStoppable said:
thismeintiel said:

No confusion?  I don't believe that for one sec.  There are plenty of people that believe that on this very site, Nintendo supporters at that.  Nintendo hasn't really done too much to show it's more than a 3D revision of the DS, yet.  I'm sure in the future they will change that, but to date most of the commercials have just shown people looking at the 3D, with little to no gameplay shown.  Maybe informed gamers like us know the difference, but your average shopper sure wouldn't. 

I think you are overrating the importance of a headstart.  This gen the 360 got a year head start, yet the Wii will win.  Last gen, the Dreamcast got a 1 1/2 years headstart, yet the PS2 won.  Two gens ago, the Saturn got a month or so headstart, yet the PS1 won.  The gen before that, the Genesis got a whopping 2 years headstart, yet the SNES won.  So headstarts really mean little, especially one that will only be ~ 7-9 months.  It all depends on price, HW appeal, and games.

So far, I don't think the NGP is getting many ports.  Most, if not all, the games announced from familiar franchises are going to be original games in the series.  The same goes for a lot the games that came to the PSP.  I hope you aren't going to knock those, while at the same time praising of those types of games coming to the 3DS.  That would be rather foolish.  Especially considering the 3DS arleady has a few ports of its own announced, and I believe Iwata said that 3DS gamers can expect a few more 3D ports.

As far as the price vs. percieved value, you are comparing the PS3, a system that launched at $499 or a full $200 more than the 360, to the NGP, a system that will probably launch for $299 or a mere $50 more than what the 3DS goes for.  There's a big difference there.  And with the added controls, power, and features, I think many aren't going to mind the extra $50 dollars.  That is if the games are there.

There are always Nintendo supporters who will make use of every possible excuse to defend something Nintendo related. The confusion is pretty much a non-factor, people aren't that clueless. The price alone makes people ask why the 3DS costs so much, so they are going to do the necessary research to find out why this is the case. Also, the commercials have already switched to showing off different games like Nintendogs and Cats and SSFIV.

Headstarts, as can be seen in all of your examples, can be overcome by vastly superior first and/or third party support compared to the competition. I find it hard to say that either one is going to be the case for the NGP, hence why it's doubtful that it will achieve anything close to 50 % marketshare.

Don't worry, I am not going to apply double standards to ports. My point is that if such games aren't doing much for the 3DS, they aren't going to do much for the NGP either.

Yes, the price difference between the 3DS and NGP probably won't be as glaring as between the 360 and PS3, but in the end it comes down to games anyway and newly launched system can't compete with one that has been out for almost a year, unless the system that enjoys the headstart has bad software support which isn't the case for the 3DS.

I'm not saying the confusion is an epidemic, but I'm sure there are quite a few people out there who might just see the ads on TV and/or in store and aren't interested in the 3DS, just thinking it is a new model of the DS.  And yes the commercials have started to switch.  Personally, I have only seen the SSFIV and can honestly say, if I hadn't known beforehand that the 3DS is a new system, I probably would have guessed it was only a 3D DS.  I mean I don't even think it showed much actual gameplay, mainly just the characters fighting outside the console.

I wouldn't say the Genesis was lacking on either first or 3rd party SW, and it had 2 years headstart and still lost.  NGP looks like it is set to have plenty of 1st and 3rd party support.  Actually, I see this handheld gen playing out much like that gen.  The SNES and Genesis were constantly fighting it out as the leader, with the Genesis sometimes being on top and sometimes the SNES.  It wasn't until near the end that the SNES pulled away by ~10 mil units sold and finished with ~55% marketshare.I think marketshare could end up being the same, 3DS - ~55% and NGP - ~45%.  Having an exclusive COD game for it wouldn't hurt its chances of making some big gains in Americas, either.

Like I pointed out for the Genesis, and the same goes for most of the consoles with a headstart, they don't start out with bad support.  It depends on the HW sales whether companies continue to support it or not.  And if the 3DS sales stay low for the rest of this year, some companies my hold off on supporting it until they see if it will rebound greatly in the holiday season.  But like I said in my OP, I don't see doom and gloom for the 3DS.  I'm quite sure it will end up selling fine.  But, I don't see it getting anywhere near the DS's numbers or having the nearly 70% marketshare it enjoys now.