who knows, but realize these companies start working on their next console the minute the release their current one. 

Your points make sense somehow, but I see a problem here. As you said Nintendo already captured the wand style motion control market, but doesn't the majority of this market consist of casuals who don't care about how powerful a system is? I mean, why should people who play only/mostly casual games upgrade to the N6? Ok, a touch-screen controller also has some possibilities and will get people interested, and in the end it's the games who make people buy something, that's for sure. But still, those 'casuals' who are interested in motion controls but haven't bought one yet could simply buy a Wii when/after the N6 releases, and that for a much cheaper price.

This is just an assumption that could be completely nonsense in the end of course, so don't take my argument as a fact.

So I think the best case scenario for the N6 would be: Nintendo is able to reach both the 'casual' and 'core' audience by developing new unique games which appeal to the wand style motion control market on the one hand and getting and keeping great 3rd party support on the other.
The worst case scenario would probably be: Nintendo fails to appeal to the 'casual' market because they focus too much on the 'core' market and they fail to appeal to the 'core' market because MS and Sony launch their new consoles already in 2013, which could be way more powerful and draw most 3rd party devs on their side.

*note: I divided the gaming poplulation into 'core' and 'casual' because it's easier to explain it that way. I'm aware that in reality you can't divide gamers into just two groups.

Anyway, I'm looking forward to E3 now, new hardware announcements are always fun and interesting. And considering that I owned every Nintendo system since the SNES it's likely that the N6 will also be part of my console family one day.

Sure. 2013 would be enough time to recoup more of the PS3 / 360 losses but still early enough to avoid too much of a headstart for Nintendo. In the end it will come down to a mix of software sales, competition, technological advancement and profits. I doubt any company will sell their console at a big loss this time so it will be less "how much power can we throw in there?" and more "at which point can we provide a substantial enough upgrade at a reasonable price?"

There are lower tier customers in every market. The "casual gaming" myth is just an industry marketing term. Lower tier customers will buy new consoles just like people driving small cars will buy a new car at some point and people buying netbooks will buy a new one after some years.

Maybe from MS, but Sony is all about power and Technology. The way I see it, don't release new consoles if its going to be just a simple upgrade.

LOL @ people thinking Nintendo can steal the core from Microsoft ... er no chance.

It takes more than horsepower to attract the core, and Nintendo's IPs are just NOT attractive to the core crowd, coupled with the fact they don't have online in their blood and they'll forever be behind MS in that department, heck only Sony is catching up now.

backward compatible isn't that much of a selling point when it is backwards compatible to a fad. 

I want to see the final build before being confident in my opinion but i still think nintendo is in for a lot of hurt with this console.

This is certainly true. But I still think that the case I described could be a problem eventually. Only time will tell.

If someone has a Wii and they don't upgrade to the NES 6 then they don't lose a customer. If someone has a Wii and upgrades to the NES 6 they don't gain a customer either. This is the reason why the NES 6 exists because they need it to target people who aren't Nintendo customers and sell them a system in order to grow as a company but at the same time they need to retain what they already have or they would be going backwards instead. The important distinction here is Nintendo customer vs non Nintendo customer and how they cater to each group.

All I see is finally Nintendo fans will get to play games we've been playing for years. There will be plenty of ports.