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Forums - General Discussion - VGC Mafia Round -28- FullMetal Alchemist

Hold up, I may have done my numbers wrong...if it is 3*3*1 the mafia won't win yet...I have to redo my numbers :(



Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.

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Hephaestos said:

oh yeah.... i'm gonna be on Iphone 3G over the weekend (friday evening till monday morning), so I doubt i'll be able to post (last I checked I could'nt post, but I could PM with my Iphone).... Just saying ^^


You should be able to post from html mode! 

*tracking*



Sig thanks to Saber! :D 

Ok, yea, by not lynching today, it would require absolute perfection for the mafia to win on night 3.  That is, we would need a mislynch on day 1, 2, and 3, and a town sk kill on night 1, 2, and 3, assuming the mafia kill somebody all 3 nights as well.

If we lynch today, however, there is a chance that we lose on day 3 already, as well as a higher probability that we lose night 3 than without lynching.  So my original numbers were off, but the reasoning stands that I don't think it is worth it to lynch somebody today.



Money can't buy happiness. Just video games, which make me happy.

Linkzmax said:

NotStan said:

What I personally find baffling linkz is how active you are this game, last game you posted rarely and didn't do so untill prompted by Hatmoza(?) I think, not sure who exactly. I am liking the activity but the constant questioning and pouncing on even the tiniest details does seem suspicious to me.

And yes I am aware you got SK'd the first night last game, but you barely poste during the first day anyway, in comparison with today.

I already explained why I was so "inactive" last round, but as TOS had pointed out I still had decent activity considering I wasn't even at a computer for ~45 hours of the ~48 hour day.

Enlighten me, which tiny details am I pouncing on?

Well with maybe the exception of questioning Heph I thought that you were too eager and vigorous to question almost everyone who had posted at some point during the day, for one reason or the other, I just found it surprising, in a sense that even when you were active in the last mafia game you tended to stick to yourself, so I am thinking whether it's a change in strategy after your death in the first night or whether you are actually town in this instance. Tiny details being questioning of Baal before we even reached 50 posts, picking prof(Although I did feel that one was a bit justified in that case, as he was actively posting outside), questioning heph even before his vote, further questioning of wonk etc. So alot of questions, it's almost as if you're a cop 



Disconnect and self destruct, one bullet a time.

Something I forgot to mention last night before I fell asleep rewatching some FMA episodes.

Since day 1 has lasted a whopping 6 days, I'm placing a 24 hour time limit.

trashleg will be modkilled at day start if there is no replacement.



I am the black sheep     "of course I'm crazy, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong."-Robert Anton Wilson

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Baalzamon said:

Ok, yea, by not lynching today, it would require absolute perfection for the mafia to win on night 3.  That is, we would need a mislynch on day 1, 2, and 3, and a town sk kill on night 1, 2, and 3, assuming the mafia kill somebody all 3 nights as well.

If we lynch today, however, there is a chance that we lose on day 3 already, as well as a higher probability that we lose night 3 than without lynching.  So my original numbers were off, but the reasoning stands that I don't think it is worth it to lynch somebody today.

So, your argument is that we can, at the worst, mislynch 3 times before the game is over no matter if it's a mislynch on day1 or day 2?

Yes, I know that isn't your point. It's my point. Day 1 is a good time to lynch. You may have a different opinion, but the fact is that we can get at most 3 mislynches no matter which day we lynch. The only difference is that if we mislynch today, we get information with at least one more townie to analyze it (lost townie from nightkill on night 1.

There are plenty of small differences, but I think that if we get at most 3 mislynches no matter what, it doesn't matter how many days we have.



dsister said:
Hephaestos said:

oh yeah.... i'm gonna be on Iphone 3G over the weekend (friday evening till monday morning), so I doubt i'll be able to post (last I checked I could'nt post, but I could PM with my Iphone).... Just saying ^^


You should be able to post from html mode! 

*tracking*


what's that?



OoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO

hatmoza said:

Something I forgot to mention last night before I fell asleep rewatching some FMA episodes.

Since day 1 has lasted a whopping 6 days, I'm placing a 24 hour time limit.

trashleg will be modkilled at day start if there is no replacement.


didn't she say sha could play after weekend?



OoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoOoO

Hephaestos said:


what's that?


In the reply box on bottom there is an "html" button, right beside the question, and under the "paragraph" box. I know some people have said they had the ability to post from their phones using it 



Sig thanks to Saber! :D 

Baalzamon said:

[numbers]

I already did this for you as soon as you asked about it:

Linkzmax said:

With 13 players, if there is an SK, we'd likely be looking at a 9 townie/3 mafia/1 SK split.(unless hat is as bad at balancing as I was, hehe)

Two mislynches and all townie night kills would make it 3-3-1, which is still winnable for town if the SK shoots nothing but mafia after that and mafia shoots SK one of the nights. 

No lynch today and a mislynch tomorrow plus all townie night kills would make it 4-3-1, which also relies on the SK helping town to have a chance. There is a little bit more leeway in that scenario, but it's still giving up a lynch opportunity.

There's only a slight difference between the two scenarios. Both require town doesn't lynch the SK and both are still winnable if no lynch occurs on the 3rd day. There's a chance that a mislynch in the second scenario wouldn't end the game overnight, but it requires SK to shoot a mafiosi. 2 mislynches with a definite next day is better than 2 mislynches and counting on anti-town to see the next day.